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Publications

See all Simona’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • External journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
Balancing Energy Security Priorities: A Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports

Balancing Energy Security Priorities: A Portfolio Optimization Approach to Oil Imports

The idea of energy security emerged after the energy crises of the 1970s. It has evolved from the initial paradigm of assuring sufficient energy supplies to include a price affordability perspective and, eventually, many other energy-related issues, such as infrastructure, environmental impacts, societal effects, energy efficiency and governance. However, security of physical supply and price affordability remain the paradigm’s two key pillars. This study applies financial portfolio theory to the energy security issues of East Asia’s four major energy importers: China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The authors calculate the relative risks associated with the dynamics of oil imports, and the import prices paid, and estimate the efficient frontiers for corresponding import portfolios. Lastly, the study runs several scenarios that simulate the effects of restructuring the four countries’ oil import portfolios and of external disruptions, notably US sanctions on Iranian oil sales. The paper’s key findings include: The short-run impact of a fully enforced Iranian oil export embargo would increase portfolio risk across the board, within a 3% to 15% range. However, the subsequent substitution of Iranian oil imports by other suppliers would prove beneficial for Japan and Taiwan. The risk premium associated with passing through the Malacca Straits would result in a 27.5% increase in price volatility for China’s oil imports, although the negative impact on its average import price level would be less pronounced, at 2.6% compared to between 5.2% and 5.8% for the other three importers.

28th May 2019
Estimating the Household Consumption Function in Saudi Arabia

Estimating the Household Consumption Function in Saudi Arabia

This research is part of a joint project between the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) and the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC). This paper estimates a micro-based life cycle consumption model for Saudi Arabia over the period 1970-2017 The estimate of consumption behavior in this paper is identified as centering on the income effect and the wealth effect: The income effect is defined as the direct impact on consumption of a variation in income. The wealth effect is defined as a consumer’s perception of a change in his or her wealth and a concomitant decision either to liquidate some of that wealth to enable an increase in consumption (in the case of a positive wealth change) or to decrease consumption in order to restore the consumer’s desired level of wealth (in the case of a negative wealth change). The wealth effect on consumption can be substantially different from the income effect because it is more closely related to consumers’ expectations of, and fluctuations in, the value of real and financial assets. The authors’ estimation shows that both income and wealth have significant effects on household consumption in Saudi Arabia, with a long-run marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of income of around 0.73-0.95, and out of wealth of around 0.06. The sensitivity of consumption to income and wealth in Saudi Arabia appears to be consistent with the growth of the Saudi economy.

5th February 2019
A Comparison of Alternative Programs for Climate Policies

A Comparison of Alternative Programs for Climate Policies

This research paper compares the relative welfare impact of different options for allocating the financing burden of climate change mitigation policies. Focusing on efficient ways to finance policies aimed at climate change mitigation, not only at direct carbon reduction, could delink the issue of carbon taxation from carbon emissions. A Pigouvian tax is the traditional way of correcting for negative externalities, or the undesirable consequences for society arising from the actions of a company or industry sector, by levying additional taxes on that activity. Pigouvian taxation corrects society’s welfare loss, however, from the viewpoint of the private sector, such taxation imposes a deadweight economic loss with respect to the original private equilibrium. As an alternative, we evaluate a methodology that could fund investments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and we show that the policy we consider to be optimal from a tax standpoint – Ramsey pricing can both improve world welfare and be politically more acceptable than other pricing options. Rather than focus directly on emissions reduction by taxing energy, a Ramsey pricing solution can be designed to minimize distortions while raising funds for investment in climate change mitigation.

30th December 2018
Analyzing renewable energy and climate conditions effects on societal welfare worldwide

Analyzing renewable energy and climate conditions effects on societal welfare worldwide

The Energy Journal

2017
Residential Energy demand elasticities and weather worldwide

Residential Energy demand elasticities and weather worldwide

The Energy Journal

2017
The Economics of Solar PV Energy

The Economics of Solar PV Energy

HAEE Energy Conference

2017
Revealed and stated preferences for CO2 emissions reduction: the missing link

Revealed and stated preferences for CO2 emissions reduction: the missing link

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

2017
Renewable energy scenarios for costs reductions in the European Union

Renewable energy scenarios for costs reductions in the European Union

Renewable Energy

2016
Revealed and stated preferences for CO2 emissions reduction: the missing link

Revealed and stated preferences for CO2 emissions reduction: the missing link

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

2016
Market Power and Transmission Congestion in the Italian Electricity Market

Market Power and Transmission Congestion in the Italian Electricity Market

The Energy Journal

2016
Renewables diffusion and contagion effect in the Italian regional electricity markets: assessments and policy implications

Renewables diffusion and contagion effect in the Italian regional electricity markets: assessments and policy implications

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

2016
Socio-economic acceptability for smart grid development – A comprehensive review

Socio-economic acceptability for smart grid development – A comprehensive review

Journal of Cleaner Production

2016
Italian youngsters’ perceptions of alternative fuel vehicles: a fuzzy-set approach

Italian youngsters’ perceptions of alternative fuel vehicles: a fuzzy-set approach

Special Issue GIKA 2016, Journal of Business Research

2016
Demand Market Power and Renewables in the Italian Electricity Market

Demand Market Power and Renewables in the Italian Electricity Market

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

2016
A System of Hourly Demand In The Italian Electricity Market

A System of Hourly Demand In The Italian Electricity Market

The Energy Journal

2015
Ramsey Prices in the Italian Electricity Market, Special Issue “Energy markets and policy implications”

Ramsey Prices in the Italian Electricity Market, Special Issue “Energy markets and policy implications”

Energy Policy

2015
Marginal cost and congestion in the Italian electricity market: an indirect estimation approach

Marginal cost and congestion in the Italian electricity market: an indirect estimation approach

Energy Policy

2015
Costs assessments of European Environmental Policies, Special Issue: “OR in Energy Modeling and Management”

Costs assessments of European Environmental Policies, Special Issue: “OR in Energy Modeling and Management”

Computers & Operations Research

2015
Electricity Demand in Wholesale Italian Market

Electricity Demand in Wholesale Italian Market

The Energy Journal

2014
Future Business Models for Power Markets: What can We Learn from the ‘Sharing Economy’?

Future Business Models for Power Markets: What can We Learn from the ‘Sharing Economy’?

Oxford Energy Forum

2014

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