Heyran Aliyeva

  • Primary Program Energy Macro and Micro-Economics
  • Research Interests Economic modeling and forecasting, time series econometrics, macroeconomic models for policy analyses, energy economics, environmental economics, and fuzzy logic applications.

Biography

Heyran Aliyeva is a research lead at KAPSARC, and part of the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project with 20 years of experience in economic modeling and forecasting. Before this project, she was involved in the Saudi Circular Carbon Economy National Program.

Prior to joining KAPSARC, she conducted evidence-based analysis at the crossroads of monetary and fiscal policies to inform the decision-making process at the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, as a senior economist. She also served as a researcher and lecturer in various universities and the Azerbaijan National Academy of Science.

Her research interest covers macroeconomics, econometric modeling and forecasting, fuzzy logic applications, energy economics, and environmental economics. She holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Publications

See all Heyran’s publications
  • Discussion paper
  • Methodology paper
The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated how exports of chemicals and rubber-plastics were shaped by theoretically articulated domestic and foreign factors over the 1993-2020 period. Then, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), and a scenario analysis was conducted for the diversification implications of foreign and domestic price shocks until 2035.

22nd October 2023
Extended KGEMM’s Emission Block With Carbon Pricing

Extended KGEMM’s Emission Block With Carbon Pricing

This methodological work develops a representation of carbon pricing through the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). This representation makes two principal contributions in terms of model capabilities: establishing a feedback link from the emissions block to the energy block and connecting the emissions block to the fiscal block, as the government collects revenue from the carbon dioxide emitted by customers / sectors.

12th March 2024

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