The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

  • Focus Area Models, Data and Tools Models, Data and Tools
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 22 October 2023
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Abstract

Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated how exports of chemicals and rubber-plastics were shaped by theoretically articulated domestic and foreign factors over the 1993-2020 period. Then, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), and a scenario analysis was conducted for the diversification implications of foreign and domestic price shocks until 2035.

Authors

Fakhri Hasanov

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Fellow I Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience… Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Muhammad Javid

Muhammad Javid

Senior Research Associate Muhammad is a senior research associate in Energy and Macroeconomics, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM)… Muhammad is a senior research associate in Energy and Macroeconomics, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project. Before joining KAPSARC, Muhammad worked as a senior research economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in Islamabad. During his 18 years in research, Muhammad has worked extensively in the areas of energy, environment, trade and macroeconomics. He also has experience working for various research, academic and governmental organizations such as King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Benazir Income Support Program, Pakistan. Muhammad has published several peer-reviewed articles on electricity demand, energy, inflation, and environmental issues. He received Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission’s Outstanding Research Award 2015/2016 for his research paper titled “Environmental Kuznets curve and financial development in Pakistan,” published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Expertise

  • Econometric Modeling; Applied Time Series Econometrics; The Economics of Energy and the Environment

Publications See all Muhammad Javid’s publications

Heyran Aliyeva

Heyran Aliyeva

Research Lead Heyran Aliyeva is a research lead at KAPSARC, and part of the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project with… Heyran Aliyeva is a research lead at KAPSARC, and part of the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project with 20 years of experience in economic modeling and forecasting. Before this project, she was involved in the Saudi Circular Carbon Economy National Program. Prior to joining KAPSARC, she conducted evidence-based analysis at the crossroads of monetary and fiscal policies to inform the decision-making process at the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, as a senior economist. She also served as a researcher and lecturer in various universities and the Azerbaijan National Academy of Science. Her research interest covers macroeconomics, econometric modeling and forecasting, fuzzy logic applications, energy economics, and environmental economics. She holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Economic modeling and forecasting
  • Time series econometrics
  • Macroeconomic models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics
  • Fuzzy logic applications.

Publications See all Heyran Aliyeva’s publications

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