Agriculture in semi-arid Saudi Arabia depletes underground water reservoirs to support food security. This study estimates agricultural water demand using dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) with data from 1992-2023 and projects alternative demand scenarios through 2050. Income, pumping costs, proxied by agricultural electricity tariffs, and rainfall are the primary determinants of water use in Saudi agriculture. Model results indicate that, without further policy intervention, agricultural water demand will rise by 55% to 20.6 bcm by 2050, representing an increase of approximately 15% relative to current total national water consumption. This growth reflects both baseline trends and additional requirements associated with the Saudi Green Initiative (SGI).
