• Focus Area Future of Global Oil Markets Future of Global Oil Markets
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 6 July 2020
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Abstract

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot market. As an indicator of future price movements, the basis follows a different dynamic when inventories are in scarce supply or in surplus. This means that there are several different market states that reflect different underlying crude oil market conditions. 

Authors

Jennifer Considine

Visiting Senior Research Fellow Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars…

Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars on various topics related to the energy industry. She has published a book and several papers on energy politics, world oil market projections, and the Russian oil economy and its future role in the global energy market. She has also consulted for several energy companies and organizations, such as Coastal Corp. Ecopetrol, ANR Pipeline Company, Husky Energy, Pieridae Energy, and the University of Texas at Austin School of Law. She is passionate about advancing knowledge and understanding of the energy sector and its complex dynamics. Dr. Considine holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Aberdeen and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago.

Expertise

  • World oil and inventories
  • Commodity trading and technology
  • Russian oil industry
  • Econometrics options pricing
  • Commercial strategies

Publications See all Jennifer Considine’s publications

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Abdullah Aldayel

Research Associate Abdullah is a research associate in the Oil and Gas program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies.…

Abdullah is a research associate in the Oil and Gas program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies. He primarily works on the economic cost of shocks to world oil markets. His work has been published in several peer-reviewed journals.

Abdullah holds a B.S. degree in petroleum engineering from the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM).

Expertise

  • Oil Market
  • Oil Inventories and Energy Policies

Publications See all Abdullah Aldayel’s publications

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