Abdullah is a research lead in the Oil and Gas program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies. He primarily works on the economic cost of shocks to world oil markets. His work has been published in several peer-reviewed journals.
Abdullah holds a B.S. degree in petroleum engineering from the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM).
The purpose of this report is to recommend an interconnected regional and international strategy to share the burden of developing and maintaining commercial and strategic storage infrastructure for Saudi crude oil and products through an alliance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other countries. If properly implemented, the project has the capacity to enhance the security of oil supply throughout the transition to a green economy. Such enhancement can be achieved through the centralized tracking and management of commercial and strategic stockpiles overseas. The initiative will forge new links in the global supply chain for crude oil and liquids and reveal new forms of financing for strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs).
26th September 2023
The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot market. As an indicator of future price movements, the basis follows a different dynamic when inventories are in scarce supply or in surplus. This means that there are several different market states that reflect different underlying crude oil market conditions.
6th July 2020
Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also reflects broader underlying market conditions and can be useful to policymakers such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC attempting to monitor and stabilize world oil markets.
24th February 2020
In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile, global market dynamics have been upended, with many predicting that the United States will become the primary swing supplier of crude oil (Morse 2018). This atmosphere is particularly challenging for those major oil companies subject to strict production quotas, as they seek to maximize profitability while maintaining constant levels of crude oil production and sales.
16th January 2020
In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of China’s recent growth in oil demand has come from ‘teapot refiners’ who have been less predictable, and more like the ‘wild west,’ than China’s national oil companies. Teapot refiners tend to be more focused on short-term profits than long-term relationships.
18th December 2019
Critical minerals (CMs), such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth metals, are essential for the development of clean energy technologies across the whole value chain of wind and solar power, electricity networks, and electric vehicles (EVs). Demand for these minerals is expected to grow quickly as energy transitions accelerate. Other sectors that depend on CMs include the electronics, defense and space industries.
26th September 2023
The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a barometer of trends in the global economy. Several oil price benchmarks currently compete in the global market. The most popular ones, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are backed by a sufficient supply of the underlying crude. They also meet the criteria for efficient trading, hedging and speculating — including having sufficient liquidity, developed futures markets, low transaction costs and strong institutional support.
13th September 2022
Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.
10th June 2020
The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO, including the models and methodology used in the analysis.
20th October 2019
Between 2009 and 2019, marketed gas production by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members has grown at an average rate of 4.8% per annum, from 265 billion standard cubic meters in 2009 to 422 billion standard cubic meters (Bscm) in 2019. This has been driven by increased demand for gas for electricity generation, power desalination, and petrochemical industries.
22nd September 2020
As of December 2018, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had combined proven reserves of 497 billion barrels of crude oil. This represents approximately 34% of the world’s estimated proven crude reserves.
27th April 2020
The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.
6th April 2020On February 24, 2022, Russia began a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, which quickly escalated into a militarized conflict across multiple fronts. The act drew immediate disapproval from the United Nations and led most members of the Western alliance to impose sanctions on Russia, which has had negative spillover effects on the world economy.
10th October 2022
With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada has the third-largest crude oil reserves in the world (EIA 2020).
27th December 2020
There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been quarantined, with many airlines suspending flights to mainland China.
20th February 2020
After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.
4th December 2019
The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have a high risk of being associated with supply disruptions. Consequently, the definition can vary over time and across countries. For example, in 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey added nickel and zinc while removing helium, potash, rhenium, and strontium to their list of critical minerals.
7th November 2024
Taylor & Francis
2022Business School University of Colorado Denver
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