Aldayel, Abdullah

Primary Program Markets and Industrial Development
Research Interests Oil Markets and Energy Policies

Biography

Abdullah is a senior research analyst in the Markets and Industrial Development program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies. He holds a B.S. degree in petroleum engineering from the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM).

Publications

See all Abdullah’s publications

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in the futures market and the price of oil in the spot market. As an indicator of future price movements, the basis follows a different dynamic when inventories are in scarce supply or in surplus. This means that there are several different market states that reflect different underlying crude oil market conditions.

6th July 2020

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also reflects broader underlying market conditions and can be useful to policymakers such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC attempting to monitor and stabilize world oil markets.

24th February 2020

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile, global market dynamics have been upended, with many predicting that the United States will become the primary swing supplier of crude oil (Morse 2018). This atmosphere is particularly challenging for those major oil companies subject to strict production quotas, as they seek to maximize profitability while maintaining constant levels of crude oil production and sales.

16th January 2020

Securing New Markets in Asia: The Value of Strategic Spot Crude Oil Sales to Teapot Refiners

In the race to secure customers on competitive world oil markets, many oil producers are looking to China as a promising source of increased market share. The task of securing new customers in China can be challenging, as most of China’s recent growth in oil demand has come from ‘teapot refiners’ who have been less predictable, and more like the ‘wild west,’ than China’s national oil companies. Teapot refiners tend to be more focused on short-term profits than long-term relationships.

18th December 2019

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.

10th June 2020

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO, including the models and methodology used in the analysis.

20th October 2019

Natural Gas Utilization in GCC Countries

Between 2009 and 2019, marketed gas production by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members has grown at an average rate of 4.8% per annum, from 265 billion standard cubic meters in 2009 to 422 billion standard cubic meters (Bscm) in 2019. This has been driven by increased demand for gas for electricity generation, power desalination, and petrochemical industries.

22nd September 2020

Crude Oil Reserves Metrics of GCC Members

As of December 2018, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries had combined proven reserves of 497 billion barrels of crude oil. This represents approximately 34% of the world’s estimated proven crude reserves.

27th April 2020

Crude Oil and Refined Products

The power sector in Saudi Arabia makes up just over half of the natural gas demand in the Kingdom, followed by the industrial sector and non-energy use as a feedstock for petrochemicals.

6th April 2020

Extreme Market Distortions Canadian Crude Oil Flows

With extensive natural resources and strategic access to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, Canada has the potential to become a global energy powerhouse – provided that the nation is successful in alleviating its infrastructure bottlenecks. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), Canada has the third-largest crude oil reserves in the world (EIA 2020).

27th December 2020

Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been quarantined, with many airlines suspending flights to mainland China.

20th February 2020

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.

4th December 2019

The Sensitivity of Oil Price Shocks to Preexisting Market Conditions: A GVAR Analysis

Science Direct

2021

Volatility, Contango, and Crude Oil Inventories: A Complex Relationship

Business School University of Colorado Denver

2021

Abdullah Aldayel

Senior Research Analyst