Effectiveness of China’s Plug-in Electric Vehicle Subsidy

  • Initiative -
  • Type KAPSARC journal article
  • Date 1 May 2020
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Abstract

Subsidies for promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption are a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the light-duty vehicle sector. In this paper, we explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Chinese PEV subsidy program. In particular, a vehicle choice model is estimated using a large random sample of individual level, model year 2017 Chinese new vehicle purchases. The choice model is then used to predict PEV market share under alternative policies. Simulation results suggest that the 2.5% PEV market share of Chinese new vehicle sales in 2017 resulted in China’s new vehicle fleet fuel economy improving by roughly 2%, reducing total gasoline consumption by 6.66 billion liters. However, the current PEV subsidy in China is expensive, costing $1.90 per additional liter of gasoline saved. This is due to a large number of non-additional PEV buyers, particularly high income consumers, who would have purchased the PEV regardless of the subsidy.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104773

Science Direct

Authors

Rubal Dua

Rubal Dua

Fellow Rubal is a research fellow at KAPSARC focused on understanding consumer decision making, in particular, consumer choice of energy-efficient technologies… Rubal is a research fellow at KAPSARC focused on understanding consumer decision making, in particular, consumer choice of energy-efficient technologies and mobility options under alternative technology and policy scenarios. Before joining KAPSARC, Rubal gained a Ph.D. at KAUST designing advanced carbon materials for energy and environmental applications, with a particular focus on energy storage, carbon capture, waste-water treatment, and hydrogen generation via solar water splitting. Prior to that, he worked at the University of Pennsylvania on a semiconductor industry-funded project, developing a continuum modeling framework for simulating the physics of micro defect formation in silicon crystals.

Expertise

  • Behavorial decision science
  • Consumer adoption
  • Energy-efficient mobility and shared autonomous mobility-on-demand

Publications See all Rubal Dua’s publications

Tamara Sheldon

Tamara Sheldon

Visiting Researcher Tamara is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC and an assistant professor of economics in the Darla Moore School of Business at… Tamara is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC and an assistant professor of economics in the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina. Her research interests include environmental and energy economics and how these fields interact with public policy. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego.

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