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Abstract

This study assesses the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 2021–2030. This is accomplished by linking an energy and environmental sector augmented macroeconometric model with a power model and a distributed generation model. Furthermore, this study distinguishes between the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of PV deployment at the utility and distributed generation scales. To the best of our knowledge, these two aspects make this work novel. We analyze three scenarios: (i) fully government-funded utility-scale PV deployment, (ii) half-government-funded utility-scale PV deployment and (iii) household-funded distributed-generation-scale PV deployment, with some government support alongside a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario.

Authors

Amro Elshurafa

Acting Program Director Dr. Elshurafa is a Fellow in King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and possesses 20+…

Dr. Elshurafa is a Fellow in King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and possesses 20+ years of experience in energy and technology garnered on three continents. His research interests lie in renewable energy policy, power systems modeling, and hybrid microgrid design and optimization. He has led and executed several national modeling initiatives both at the distributed and utility scales, and he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally as per Elsevier. Some aspects of his research have been adopted by BP in creating their seminal annual statistical review. Credited with 50+ papers and patents, Dr. Elshurafa holds a PhD in electrical engineering complemented thereafter with an MBA in finance.

Expertise

  • Power sector modeling
  • Electricity markets
  • Renewable energy policy
  • Hybrid microgrid optimization

Publications See all Amro Elshurafa’s publications

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Fellow I Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience… Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Lester C. Hunt

Visiting Researcher Lester C. Hunt is a part-time Professor of Economics at the University of Portsmouth and a KAPSARC Visiting Researcher. Lester… Lester C. Hunt is a part-time Professor of Economics at the University of Portsmouth and a KAPSARC Visiting Researcher. Lester previously worked at the Universities of Essex (1979-1980), Swansea (1980-1985 and 1987-1989), Surrey (1989-1991 and 1999-2017), and Portsmouth (1994-1998, and 2017 onwards). At Surrey he was Head of Economics (1999-2003) and Director of SEEC (2003-2015). At Portsmouth he was Head of Economics (1996 -1998) and Head of Economics and Finance (2017-2021). In addition to working in higher education, Lester was an Economic Adviser in the forecasting division of HM Treasury (1985-1987), an Energy Analyst/Economist at Midlands Electricity (1991-1994) and a Senior Research Fellow at KAPSARC (2015-2017). Lester holds a B.Sc. (Hons) in Economics with Econometrics from Loughborough University, an MA in Economics from the University of Essex, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Surrey. He has been an Editor of The Energy Journal since 2006.

Expertise

  • Energy Economics and Policy

Publications See all Lester C. Hunt’s publications

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