How Firm Capacity and Forced Outage Rate Assumptions of Renewables Impact Capacity Expansion Model Results

The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power for the generation of electricity. These variable and intermittent resources would modify power systems’ reliability compared to the situation where electricity is generated by conventional dispatchable power plants. It is also important to accurately capture their contribution to resource adequacy in long-term expansion planning. This discussion paper assesses how varying the firm capacity (FC) and forced outage rate (FOR) assumptions of renewable energy (RE) impact capacity expansion models (CEM). Eight scenarios that vary the FC and FOR, RE share targets, and annual RE uptake were run on a power system model of Saudi Arabia. Assuming a relatively high FC and a relatively low FOR favors renewables (i.e., Optimistic-RE), while the opposite disfavors them (i.e., Pessimistic-RE). Compared with optimistic RE assumptions, the pessimistic RE assumptions result in significant increases in costs, emissions, and battery storage deployment of up to 11%, 17%, and 41%, respectively. However, no observable patterns were found for resource adequacy. Quantifying the extent to which FC and FOR of RE technologies, which are considered heavily weather-dependent, impact investments in the power sector provides valuable insights for policymakers as the world moves forward more aggressively with RE deployment to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

9th March 2023

Cost, Footprint, and Reliability Implications of Deploying Hydrogen in Off-grid Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A GIS-assisted Study for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

We quantify the cost, footprint and reliability implications of using hydrogen in off-grid electric vehicle charging stations (CS) using an optimization model coupled with a geographical information system (GIS) analysis for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We also account for the challenges associated with wind energy deployment as a generation technology for CS within city centers.

29th January 2023

Cost, Emission, and Macroeconomic Implications of Diesel Displacement in the Saudi Agricultural Sector: Options and Policy Insights

The Saudi agricultural sector relies on diesel for irrigation, which is provided to farmers at a much lower price than the average global price, implying significant opportunity costs. With the aid of soft-coupled power and macro-econometric models, we assess the cost and macroeconomic implications of electrifying irrigation activities in the Saudi agricultural sector. Three electrification scenarios are considered: electrifying each individual farm with a dedicated hybrid renewable micro-grid, electrifying the entire farm cluster with central generation and connecting the entire cluster via transmission to the national grid. Compared with the base-case, connecting the farm cluster to the national grid is found to be the most economical but the least environmentally friendly. The renewable and central generation scenarios are costlier (compared with the transmission scenario) due, respectively, to the high battery costs and gas infrastructure needed.

24th August 2022

Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings from Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector

Load shifting, that is, moving demand from peak to off-peak hours, is an important type of demand response. It can reduce the overall operating costs of a power system and improve the reliability of the power grid. This study estimates the financial implications of load shifting in the Saudi industrial sector. We use a national Saudi power system dispatch optimization model to simulate three scenarios. With this model, we quantify the impacts of shifting industrial loads from the peak summer to the off-peak winter months, keeping industrial electricity tariffs unchanged.    

11th April 2022

Achieving Renewable Energy Targets Without Compromising the Power Sector’s Reliability

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy has set ambitious renewable energy goals. Although the Kingdom’s current energy mix is dominated by conventional energy (>95%), it aims to draw 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Currently, the Kingdom enjoys very high solar photovoltaic potential, and it is also well positioned for wind generation. Thus, studying the reliability of highly renewable power systems and the impact of converting conventional generation to renewable energy is of paramount importance. The latter analysis is important because temperatures in the Kingdom are often high for a considerable portion of the year.

22nd March 2022

Assessing the Role of Renewables in Reducing Emissions in the Saudi Power Sector Using Mixed-Integer Optimization

Renewable energy (RE) technologies are viewed as a critical means of reducing power sector-related emissions. Using mixed-integer optimization, we evaluate the extent to which renewable energy reduces carbon emissions in the Saudi power sector.

2nd June 2021

The Value of Storage in Electricity Generation: A Qualitative and Quantitative Review

Electricity storage technology has many useful applications in the energy sector and can complement variable renewable power generation to achieve a low-carbon future. For policymakers, utilities, and investors, effective decisions in this context require an understanding of how to determine the monetary value of storage.

26th November 2020

Electric Vehicle Deployment and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Power System Perspective

A power system model for Saudi Arabia was built to quantify the carbon emission implications of deploying electric vehicles (EVs) within the Kingdom. The model represented the four operating regions in the Kingdom as segmented by the electricity regulator.

9th October 2019

The Potential of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, commonly referred to as distributed generation (DG) solar systems, can play a central role in the energy mix for sustainable cities. As with all forms of power generation, DG carries technical, financial, policy, and market implications that impact utilities, governments, businesses and other stakeholders.

1st October 2019

Techno-Economics of Solar PV on Mosque Rooftops: Results from a Pilot Study in Saudi Arabia

There are an estimated 3.5 million mosques worldwide. The relatively large surface area of most mosque rooftops and their ubiquity in the Muslim world make them excellent candidates for solar photovoltaic (PV) installations. Muslims congregate for prayers at mosques five times a day: at dawn, noon, afternoon, sunset, and evening. Because these times are governed by the sun, they change chronographically within the year, according to the season, but are perpetual. As such, mosque electricity load profiles are highly predictable across each year and experience limited annual variation. 

28th August 2019

Estimating the Learning Curve of Solar PV Balance-of-Systems for Over 20 Countries

The capital cost of a solar photovoltaic (PV) system comprises the module and balance-of-systems (BOS). The latter refers to everything else that is needed to make the solar system functional including cables, mounts, labor, etc. While modules are priced internationally, the BOS is countryspecific. Price developments of modules, which have been thoroughly studied in literature, followed an 80 percent learning curve (LC). On the other hand, research on the LC for BOS has not been as extensive.

15th June 2017

Reporting LCOE for Solar PV: Apples to Apples Comparisons

Solar energy is expected to be an integral technology in the creation of a low-carbon future. Hence, as photovoltaics (PV) installations continue to grow at an exponential rate, a better understanding of the generation costs of this relatively young industry is necessary in order to assess its competitiveness versus conventional sources. Using an extensive data set of generation costs for solar technology.

8th March 2017

Adding Photovoltaics to the Saudi Power System: What are the Costs of Intermittency?

Intermittent generation from wind or photovoltaics (PV) imposes a cost on the power systems in which they are deployed. These costs vary regionally due to different fuel costs and ramping flexibility of existing grid capacities. With 2015 as a reference year, we examine the costs of PV intermittency and costs of integration to power utilities in Saudi Arabia, using a least-cost approach for the power utilities. The operational facets of PV integration to grid operators will be more pronounced with higher PV penetration, so, to focus on system operation, we exclude the capital costs. The excess of the price paid to new PV generators over the current average consumer tariff would also have to be covered by the utility, and will depend on the details of the power purchase contracts.

28th November 2016

Changing Competitive Landscape: Transition Policy’s Blind Spots

For the past two to three decades, and particularly in the wake of the Great Recession, clean energy transitions have been sold as a three-for-the-price-ofone policy: creating “green collar” jobs to get the unemployed back to work, using domestic resources to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, and all while reducing carbon emissions. The first of two implicit goals of this “three-fer” was the development of local, high tech industries supported by policy-driven domestic demand for wind and solar equipment. These high tech industries would, in turn, deliver the second goal of driving down the costs of clean energy technologies to the point where they would no longer require policy support.

6th October 2014

Electricity Transmission Formulations in Multi-Sector National Planning Models: An illustration using the KAPSARC Energy Model

The purpose of this study is to assess policy-relevant effects of incorporating a more proper representation of electricity transmission in multi-sector national policy models. This goal is achieved by employing the KAPSARC Energy Model (KEM), which is the first publicly available large-scale energy policy model for Saudi Arabia. Past studies using KEM have examined industrial pricing policy, residential energy efficiency, the prospects of power generation technologies and residential electricity pricing. These studies have shown that under certain fuel pricing scenarios, significant renewable energy capacity is deployed.

5th November 2017

Solar Photovoltaic Toolkit

This data set compiles capital costs (CAPEX) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) data for the solar photovoltaic (PV) technology by year and country and presents the data in an interactive manner. Although, the data set contains information that dates back to the 1980s, most of the information covers the past 10 years.

16th April 2016

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation in 2021

In 2021, global solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased by a record 175 gigawatts (GW). This brought the total global cumulative installed PV capacity to around 942 GW at the end of 2021.

10th October 2022

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation in 2020

Dozens of governments worldwide have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emissions reduction targets, and contribute to their domestic economies through industry creation.  

26th July 2021

Global Trends in Cloud Computing and Saudi Arabia’s Response

As data centers become operational in the Kingdom, they will be an additional driver of long-term electricity demand. KAPSARC is actively studying these challenges and their implications for the economy by modeling and forecasting electricity demand.

2nd June 2021

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation

Dozens of governments around the world have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emissions reduction targets, and contribute to their domestic economies through industry creation.

27th July 2020

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation

Dozens of governments around the world have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emission reduction targets, and contribute to their domestic economies through industry creation.

6th October 2019

The Potential for Distributed Solar PV Systems in Riyadh

The country’s regulator, the Electricity and Co-Generation Regulatory Authority (ECRA) has also released provisional bylaws that will govern how distributed generation (DG) would be compensated within the Kingdom. Many governmental organizations mandated to support local industries and energy efficiency measures are assessing the potential business and employment opportunities that could result from renewable energy deployment. This analysis provides a timely insight that can help shape the discussion around DG as the Kingdom moves forward with its renewable energy plans.

18th November 2019

Demystifying Policy Support Mechanisms for Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Systems

Solar photovoltaic (PV) distributed generation (DG) systems are installed for residential, commercial, and industrial use. PV DG systems in the residential sector typically have capacities below 20 kilowatts (kW). However, commercial and industrial PV DG systems can have capacities of several hundred kW. While most PV DG systems are deployed on rooftops, they can also be ground-mounted if there is enough space to do so.

3rd June 2020

The Impact of High Temperatures on Battery Performance in Solar-PV Systems With Storage

The World Bank estimates that nearly 1 billion people globally have no grid electricity access. Diesel generators are the default source of energy for locations lacking access to the grid. The falling costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and battery storage systems will enable fully renewable, reliable, and economic off-grid generation.

17th December 2019

An Improved Understanding of The Balance of System Costs Can Improve The Economics of Solar PV Projects

Much of the discussion around the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation has focused on the costs of PV modules that convert sunlight to electricity. The overall capital cost of a PV system consists of two components: the cost of the modules and the balance-of-systems (BOS) costs. The BOS is a catch-all term to describe everything needed to erect and commission the PV system. The BOS costs include cables, the mounting system, solar inverters, labor costs, permitting costs, and site preparation costs.

18th September 2019

Modeling Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings From Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector and Interlinkages to Export Revenues

Science Direct

2023

Cost, Footprint, and Reliability Implications of Deploying Hydrogen in Off-grid Electric Vehicle Charging Stations: A GIS-assisted Study for Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

2022

Cost, Emission, and Macroeconomic Implications of Diesel Displacement in the Saudi Agricultural Sector: Options and Policy Insights

Science Direct

2022

Assessing Effects of Renewable Deployment on Emissions in the Saudi Power Sector Until 2040 Using Integer Optimization

Science Direct

2021

The Value of Storage in Electricity Generation: A Qualitative and Quantitative Review

Science Direct

2020

Electric Vehicle Deployment and Carbon Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Power System Perspective

Science Direct

2020

Solar PV on mosque rooftops: Results from a pilot study in Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

2019

The Upper Limit of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

MDPI

2019

State-of-Charge Effects on Standalone Solar-Storage Systems in Hot Climates: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia

MDPI

2019

Blind Spots in Energy Transition Policy: Case Studies From Germany and USA

Science Direct

2019

Estimating the learning curve of solar PV balance–of–system for over 20 countries: Implications and policy recommendations

Journal of Cleaner Production

2018

Electricity transmission formulations in multi-sector national planning models: An illustration using the KAPSARC energy model

Energy Reports

2018

Striking a balance between profit and carbon dioxide emissions in the Saudi cement industry

International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

2017

Adding Solar PV to the Saudi Power System: What is the Cost of Intermittency?

Energy Transitions

2017

Adding Photovoltaics to the Saudi Power System: What are the Costs of Intermittency?

Energy Transitions 1

2017

The Economics of Solar PV Energy

HAEE Energy Conference

2017

Fractal Structures for MEMS Fixed Capacitors

US Patent

2016

High Voltage Charge Pump

US Patent

2016

A Fractional Order Capacitor

US Patent

2016

Achieving Submicron Lateral Separations in the Standard 2m PolyMUMPS Process

Journal of Applied Nanoscience

2014

50V All PMOS Charge Pump using Low Voltage Capacitors

IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics

2013

A New Vertical Suspension Inertial Grade Gyroscope

IEEE International Conference on Solid-State Sensors, Actuators, and Microsystems – TRANSDUCERS

2013

Microscale Electrostatic Fractional capacitors using Reduced Graphene Oxide Percolated Polymer Composites

Applied Physics Letters

2013

Microscale Electrostatic Fractional capacitors using Reduced Graphene Oxide Percolated Polymer Composites

Applied Physics Letters

2013

Modeling and Fabrication of RF MEMS Variable Capacitors Using a Fractal Geometry

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems – ISCAS

2013

Method and Sensors for Estimating and Predicting Air Flow Around Air Vehicles

US Patent Application

2013

Electrostatic Puzzle-Like RF MEMS Fractal Variable Capacitors Suppressing Pull-in

IET/IEEE Micro & Nano Letters

2012

A Differential RF MEMS Capacitor with an Interwoven Structure Immune to Residual Stress Warping

IET/IEEE Micro & Nano Letters

2012

Fabrication of CMOS Compatible Nanopillars Smart Bio-mimetic Sensor for CMOS Imagers

IEEE Northeast Workshop for Circuits and Systems – NEWCAS

2012

Two-layer RF MEMS Fractal Capacitors in PolyMUMPS for S-band Applications

IET/IEEE Micro & Nano Letters

2012

Determination of Maximum Power Transfer Conditions of Bimorph Piezoelectric Energy Harvesters

Journal of Applied Physics – JAP

2012

A Low Voltage RF MEMS Variable Capacitor with Linear C-V Response

IET/IEEE Electronics Letters

2012

RF MEMS Fractal Capacitors with High Self Resonant Frequencies

IEEE/ASME Journal of Microelectromechanical Systems – JMEMS

2012

Fractal Structures for MEMS Variable Capacitors

US Patent Application

2011

Nonlinear Dynamics of Spring Softening and Hardening in MEMS Folded Resonators

IEEE/ASME Journal of Microelectromechanical Systems – JMEMS

2011

Modeling of MEMS Piezoelectric Energy Harvesters using Electromagnetic and Power System Theories

Journal of Smart Materials and Structures – SMS

2011

A Fully Symmetric and Completely Decoupled MEMS SOI Gyroscope

Sensors and Transducers Journal

2011

Modeling of the Coriolis Force in MEMS gyroscopes using COMSOL

COMSOL Conference Proceedings

2011

A Fully Symmetric and Completely Decoupled MEMS-SOI Gyroscope

Nanotech Conference and Expo

2010

MEMS Variable Capacitance Devices Utilizing the Substrate: I. Novel Devices with Customizable Tuning Range

Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering – JMM

2010

MEMS Variable Capacitance Devices Utilizing the Substrate: II. Zipping Varactors

Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering – JMM

2010

A Novel 3-in-1 MEMS Variable Capacitance Device with Customizable Tuning Ranges

IEEE International Device and Test Workshop – IDT

2009

Effects of Non-uniform Nanoscale Deflections on Capacitance in RF MEMS Parallel Plate Variable Capacitors

Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering – JMM

2008

Design Considerations in MEMS Parallel Plate Variable Capacitors

IEEE Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems – MWSCAS (INVITED)

2007

A High Compliance Input and Output Regulated Body-driven Current Mirror for Deep Submicron CMOS

IEEE International Conference on Microelectronics – ICM

2006

Effects of Etching Holes on Capacitance and Tuning Range in MEMS Parallel Plate Variable Capacitors

IEEE International Workshop on System on Chip – IWSOC

2006

Finite Element Modeling of Low Stress Suspension Structures and Applications in RF MEMS Parallel Plate Variable Capacitors

IEEE Transactions of Microwave Theory and Techniques – MT&T

2006

Low Stress Suspension Structures and Applications in MEMS Varactors

Canadian Workshop on Microelectromechanical Systems – CWMEMS

2005

CMOS and MUMPs Devices and Circuits for Low Voltage Applications

Proceedings of the 16th Workshop of the Canadian Network of Centers of Excellence in Microelectronics – MICRONET

2005

Quality Factor Estimation of Fabricated MEMS Parallel-Plate Variable Capacitors in MUMPS

IEEE Northeast Workshop on Circuits and Systems – NEWCAS

2004

Tunable Matching Networks for Future MEMS-Based Transceivers

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems – ISCAS

2004

Design Criteria for Tunable Matching Networks – A MEMS Perspective in the FM Band

IEEE Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems – MWSCAS

2003