• Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Applied macroeconometrics, energy economics, time series modeling and forecasting

Biography

Fakhri is a research fellow leading the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project. Previously, he was an associate professor and director of the Center for Socio-Economic Research at Qafqaz University, Azerbaijan. He has served as a deputy director of the Research Institute at the Ministry of Economic Development, and a senior economist at the Research Department of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic. He received a Fulbright Post-Doctoral Scholarship and conducted a research on building and applying a macroeconometric model for policy analysis at the George Washington University. Fakhri is a member of the research program on forecasting at the George Washington University and the editorial board of the Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences. His research interests and experience span econometric modeling and forecasting, building and applying macroeconometric models for policy purposes, energy economics with a particular focus on natural resource-rich countries.

Publications

See all Fakhri’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Instant Insight
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • External journal articles
Natural Resource Revenue Management Strategies in Developing Countries: A Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for Uganda

Natural Resource Revenue Management Strategies in Developing Countries: A Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for Uganda

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an opportunity to boost economic development. However, this opportunity brings with it potential challenges in the form of ‘Dutch disease’ and, potentially, the ‘resource curse’. A companion paper to this report: Managing Macroeconomic Risks Arising from Natural Resource Revenues in Developing Countries: A review of the Challenges for East Africa sets out the current state of thinking on the issues of Dutch disease, resource curse, the applicability of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) in populous, developing economies and the impact of absorptive capacity constraints.

December 24, 2015
Macroeconomic Challenges for Eastern Africa

Macroeconomic Challenges for Eastern Africa

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an enormous opportunity to boost economic development. However, success is not inevitable and the causes of failure have been extensively researched during recent years. This paper summarizes the challenges that can beset such opportunities.

September 6, 2015
Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political decision-making process, this Instant Insight – the first such KAPSARC publication – finds that the international community, and indeed some of the waiver economies, will at best partially comply with reinstated sanctions. China, India and Turkey are particularly unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions and will maintain much of their current oil trade with Iran, the modeling shows. The paper also simulates the likely impact on the global oil price of ending the waivers in four scenarios which show: i) no oil price rise if the sanctions don’t work at all, ii) an oil price rise of up to 12% by Q2 2020 if Iranian oil exports drop by an average 42%, iii) a 30%-plus price increase if the sanctions are 100% effective, and iv) no significant price change if Saudi Arabia offsets reduced Iranian crude oil exports by increasing its output and exports. The analysis in the paper is based on two in-house models: the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) and the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM).

May 9, 2019
The Role of Oil Price in Exchange Rate Movements: the CIS Oil-Exporters

The Role of Oil Price in Exchange Rate Movements: the CIS Oil-Exporters

Economies

2017
Residential Electricity Use Effects of Population in Russia

Residential Electricity Use Effects of Population in Russia

Journal of Qafqaz University – Economics and Administration

2015
Sustainable Development and the STIRPAT Framework

Sustainable Development and the STIRPAT Framework

Journal of Qafqaz University – Economics and Administration

2014
The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?

The impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports. Is there an asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium?

Actual Problems of Economics

2013
Dutch Disease and the Azerbaijan economy

Dutch Disease and the Azerbaijan economy

Journal of Communist and Post-Communist Studies

2013
Bank Credits and Non-Oil Economic Growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Bank Credits and Non-Oil Economic Growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan

International Review of Economics and Finance

2013
Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: Is there any threshold effect?

Relationship between inflation and economic growth in Azerbaijani economy: Is there any threshold effect?

Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences

2012
Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?

Why had the Money Market Approach been irrelevant in explaining inflation in Azerbaijan during the rapid economic growth period?

Journal of Middle Eastern Finance and Economics

2011

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