Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

  • Focus Area Future of Global Oil Markets Future of Global Oil Markets
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 24 February 2020
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Abstract

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The basis also reflects broader underlying market conditions and can be useful to policymakers such as the International Energy Agency and OPEC attempting to monitor and stabilize world oil markets.

Authors

Jennifer Considine

Jennifer Considine

Visiting Researcher- Oil & Gas Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars…

Dr. Considine is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the CEPMLP in Scotland, where she has developed courses and seminars on various topics related to the energy industry. She has published a book and several papers on energy politics, world oil market projections, and the Russian oil economy and its future role in the global energy market. She has also consulted for several energy companies and organizations, such as Coastal Corp. Ecopetrol, ANR Pipeline Company, Husky Energy, Pieridae Energy, and the University of Texas at Austin School of Law. She is passionate about advancing knowledge and understanding of the energy sector and its complex dynamics. Dr. Considine holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Aberdeen and a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Chicago.

Expertise

  • World oil and inventories
  • Commodity trading and technology
  • Russian oil industry
  • Econometrics options pricing
  • Commercial strategies

Publications See all Jennifer Considine’s publications

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Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and…

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Philipp Galkin

Philipp Galkin

Visiting Researcher- Oil & Gas Philipp is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC, working on the economic and policy aspects of energy supply and trade. Philipp’s…

Philipp is a visiting researcher at KAPSARC, working on the economic and policy aspects of energy supply and trade. Philipp’s work at KAPSARC includes evaluating the effect of preferential trade agreements on energy flows, analysis of OPEC energy policy and deriving insights related to China’s energy policy and its impact on global markets through modeling energy supply sectors.

Expertise

  • International economic relations
  • Regional and country studies and policy analysis

Publications See all Philipp Galkin’s publications

Abdullah Aldayel

Abdullah Aldayel

Lead- Oil & Gas Abdullah is a research lead in the Oil and Gas program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies.…

Abdullah is a research lead in the Oil and Gas program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies. He primarily works on the economic cost of shocks to world oil markets. His work has been published in several peer-reviewed journals.

Abdullah holds a B.S. degree in petroleum engineering from the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM).

Expertise

  • Oil Market
  • Oil Inventories and Energy Policies

Publications See all Abdullah Aldayel’s publications

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