In this paper, we revisit the theoretical framework for energy demand. We then use this theoretical framework to empirically model the Saudi Arabian industrial electricity demand. We show, in the case of Saudi Arabian data, that imposing parsimonious energy demand specification on data without testing relevant assumptions can lead to biased estimations and noticeably poor approximations, while imposing general energy demand specification without accounting for the data properties can lead to redundant estimations and lower approximation than what could be obtained otherwise. Combining the theory with the data can provide unbiased and irredundant estimations with high levels of approximations. Hence, this paper recommends, based on the empirical findings, that a better strategy would be the combination of theoretical coherence with data coherence in the General to Specific Modeling (GtSM) framework for the empirical analyses of energy demand.
Senior Fellow I Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience… Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.
- Econometric modeling and forecasting
- Time series and panel data econometrics
- Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
- Energy economics
- Environmental economics.
Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications
The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks
In this paper, we revisit the theoretical framework for energy demand. We then use this…22nd October 2023
Modeling and forecasting industrial electricity demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering regional characteristics
In this paper, we revisit the theoretical framework for energy demand. We then use this…1st October 2023