Jeyhun Mikayilov

Research Fellow

  • Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Applied Time Series Econometrics, the Economics of Energy and Environment, and Sustainable Development

Biography

Jeyhun is a research fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State University) in mathematics. Jeyhun holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics and a D.S. in econometrics. Before joining KAPSARC in September 2017, Jeyhun was an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at Azerbaijan State University, and the Department of Economics at Qafqaz University, where he taught econometrics, statistics, and mathematical economics. His other roles have included director of the Research Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, and head of the Center for Socio-Economic Research. Jeyhun was a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University Bloomington, United States (U.S.). He has also been a visiting researcher at several institutions, including the Center for Econometric Research, Sungyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland; the University of North Texas, and the University of South Texas, both in the U.S.

Jeyhun’s research is focused on applied time series econometrics, the economics of energy, the environment and sustainable development. He has authored over 40 scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals and is an editorial board member of the International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review, the Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, and the Journal of Socio-Economic Studies, and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Publications

See all Jeyhun’s publications
  • Books/books chapters
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology paper
  • Data Insights
  • Instant Insight
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • External journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
How Total Factor Productivity Drives Long-Run Energy Consumption in Saudi Arabia

How Total Factor Productivity Drives Long-Run Energy Consumption in Saudi Arabia

In this study, we investigate how total factor productivity (TFP), alongside income, price, and population, shapes energy consumption in the long-run in Saudi Arabia, the world’s number one oil exporter. To do so, we first estimate a production function and construct the associated TFP series, and then assess TFP’s impact on energy consumption. To take into consideration the stochastic properties of the variables, we employ unit root and cointegration methods. We also correct estimations and test results for potential small sample bias. Our main finding is that TFP has a statistically significant impact on energy consumption in the long-run. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-06001-5_8  

21st May 2019
Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally. Although CH4 has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2.  

14th September 2023
Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level provides valuable insights for assessing the impact of previous and future policies. The regions of Saudi Arabia have unique social and economic characteristics (Mikayilov et al. 2020b) and are expected to react differently to changing policies.

25th June 2023
Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC). NDCs are essentially climate action plans that encompass a party’s climate target and the initiatives or policies that it plans to implement to achieve that target.

6th June 2023
Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally (IPCC 2018). Although CH4has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2. Therefore, meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement necessitates not only decarbonization but also significant CH4 emissions reductions, especially in the near term.

14th May 2023
Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that shows how emissions would evolve without any further efforts to reduce emissions. Saudi Arabia’s quantitative baseline scenario is not yet publicly available.

11th May 2023
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first estimates how theoretically articulated determinants (e.g., income and price) historically shaped natural gas demand. Then, this estimated equation is integrated into a macroeconometric model called KGEMM to simulate the impact of natural gas prices on key macroeconomic and sectoral indicators that are of policy interest for the coming years.

10th May 2023
How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance

How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance

In light of Saudi Arabia’s recent energy-pricing reform strategy, this paper investigates the main drivers of fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transport sector. We employed a battery of econometric techniques to analyze the long-run relationships between income, fuel prices, energy share, population, and total carbon emissions in the transportation sector.

29th May 2022
Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and significance of the price and income elasticities for regional industrial electricity demand, this study projects regional industrial electricity demand up to 2030. This is done using estimated equations and assuming different future values for price and income. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities of industrial electricity demand vary across regions. The underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates some efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions.

13th January 2022
Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices fixed in nominal terms for years with minor adjustments.

13th September 2020
Electricity Demand Modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do Regional Differences Matter

Electricity Demand Modeling in Saudi Arabia: Do Regional Differences Matter

Energy is a pervasive input to all business and recreational activities. As such, total energy demand is an important indicator that helps explain the pattern of economic development within a country. Identifying and understanding the key determinants of electricity demand is therefore important for the economic prosperity of a country, since the availability of reliable electricity directly affects the prospects of economic development. With mega projects already in the works in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Vision 2030’s National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP 2019) being implemented, understanding the Kingdom’s existing and projected patterns of electricity demand is arguably more important now than ever before.  

30th April 2020
Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

Achieving the desired level of employment is central to macroeconomic policy. Regulators should have a better understanding of employment dynamics in order to design appropriate policies and test their impact. Healthy employment levels not only benefit household income and the production factor of firms, but also help maintain sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty. Employment is a central element in the concept of inclusive growth (UN 2006; Bhalla 2007). Therefore, the dynamics of employment determinants have been the subject of considerable research to date.

7th April 2020
KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

13th February 2020
Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

After the drop in international oil prices in 2014, oil-exporting countries started to launch new policies to develop their economies. It is important that policymakers involved in energy and economic development understand how economic agents respond to increased energy prices and how the latter affects the demand for different fuels.

26th December 2019
Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional estimation methods. National models of aggregate electricity consumption might not be representative, as electricity prices are administered regionally and Saudi Arabia’s regions have unique social and economic characteristics. We find evidence that the regions have unique responses to prices and income levels with regard to electricity demand. Additionally, we use our estimated model to project the regional baseline demand for electricity for Saudi Arabia and create a scenario to demonstrate how a price increase would impact these regions differently. This information is valuable for policymakers in Saudi Arabia, as the fuel mix to generate electricity differs between regions. Our baseline electricity demand projections indicate that under the assumptions of moderate economic growth and no price changes, total electricity demand in Saudi Arabia will reach 366 TWh by 2030.

5th July 2023
Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

This data insight calculates the humidity-adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days for Saudi Arabia. This dataset can be used by researchers who model residential electricity demand, energy efficiency studies, and policymakers to base their potential policy scenarios on weather conditions.

19th July 2023
The Surge in Riyadh’s Population: Electricity Demand Implications

The Surge in Riyadh’s Population: Electricity Demand Implications

The city of Riyadh, the capital and most populous city of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is undergoing a makeover to become a global metropolis. Saudi Vision 2030 announced a wide range of projects in the city, placing it on an accelerated sustainable development path toward becoming a world-leading city economy. 

20th September 2023
The Changing Impact of Income and Price on Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia

The Changing Impact of Income and Price on Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia

The growth path of gasoline demand, a key strategic fuel, has important implications for oil security, oil-related carbon emissions, and refinery investment (Dahl 2012). As such, understanding how fluctuations in income and gasoline prices could affect the demand for oil in Saudi Arabia allows policymakers to assess what drives gasoline demand over time and the likely future development of oil demand.

11th December 2019
Estimation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Traditional and Non-Traditional Export Sectors on Non-Oil Export of Azerbaijan

Estimation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Traditional and Non-Traditional Export Sectors on Non-Oil Export of Azerbaijan

Academic Journal of Economic Studies

2016
Testing of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the case of Azerbaijan

Testing of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the case of Azerbaijan

Journal of Qafqaz University - Economics and Administration

2016
Residential Electricity Use Effects of Population in Russia

Residential Electricity Use Effects of Population in Russia

Journal of Qafqaz University – Economics and Administration

2015
Sustainable Development and the STIRPAT Framework

Sustainable Development and the STIRPAT Framework

Journal of Qafqaz University – Economics and Administration

2014

Stay informed

I'm interested in

Select the updates you'd like to receive from us

About

A bit about you