The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

Initiative Energy and Economic Vulnerability
Type Discussion paper
Date 11 May 2023

Adaptation
Circular Carbon Economy (CCE)
Climate change
Competitiveness
Crude Oil
Cyclicality
Diesel
Dutch Disease
Econometrics
Economic diversification
Economic Growth and Convergence
Economic Stability
Electricity demand growth
Energy Intensity
Energy transition
Fiscal policy
Fiscal Rules
India
Labor Productivity
Local Content
Mitigation
Monetary Policy
Non-oil Revenue
Oil price
Oil-exporting countries
Petroleum
Resiliancy
Sovereign wealth fund
Total Factor Productivity
Transformation

Abstract

The energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not stably maintained. These countries can protect themselves against revenue volatility and mitigate carbon risk by diversifying their economies. However, export diversification appears to be particularly challenging for many oil-producing countries.

Authors

Fatih Karanfil

Research Fellow Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his… Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his M.A. in economic analysis and modeling jointly from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University and the École Centrale Paris. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, Fatih was a research fellow at EconomiX-CNRS and an associate professor of economics at the University of Paris, Nanterre, where he taught econometrics, energy economics, and environmental economics. Fatih's current research focuses mainly on developing economic frameworks to provide insights into energy policymaking in oil-producing countries. His research has been published in general-interest economics journals (e.g., Applied Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics and Macroeconomic Dynamics), as well as journals on energy economics (e.g., Energy Economics, Energy PolicyandThe Energy Journal).

Expertise