Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.

What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China?

To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that:

  • China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization.
  • China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model.
  • Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system.

Authors

Dongmei Chen

Research Fellow Dongmei is a research fellow with more than 20 years of professional experience on China’s energy and climate change policy… Dongmei is a research fellow with more than 20 years of professional experience on China’s energy and climate change policy development. At the Center, she carries out research on China and has contributed to workshop briefs. Previously she worked in a state-owned company, and in government and non-government agencies. As a senior adviser and head of IIP's China office, she engaged with Chinese industrial stakeholders for best practice development and dissemination. As director of the WWF China Climate Change and Energy Program, she designed the Low Carbon City Initiative in partnership with local governments and international networks. Dongmei also engaged in the study and discussion on renewable energy and coal policy in China.

Expertise

  • Energy governance
  • Transport policy and industrial energy productivity analysis

Publications See all Dongmei Chen’s publications

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Research Associate Yagyavalk is a research associate at KAPSARC. His research interests include analysis of energy policies, with a focus on alternative… Yagyavalk is a research associate at KAPSARC. His research interests include analysis of energy policies, with a focus on alternative fuels and their impact on energy security. He previously worked as a researcher, providing sustainable development and decentralized renewable energy system solutions to rural areas of north India. He holds a master’s degree in renewable energy engineering and management from TERI University, India.  

Expertise

  • Energy market
  • Renewable energy transition and climate finance

Publications See all Yagyavalk Bhatt’s publications

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