Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.

What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China?

To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that:

  • China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization.
  • China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model.
  • Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system.

Authors

Dongmei Chen

Research Fellow Dongmei is a Research Fellow at KAPSARC with a focus on energy trade, energy investment and regional energy cooperation. She… Dongmei is a Research Fellow at KAPSARC with a focus on energy trade, energy investment and regional energy cooperation. She has more than 20 years of experience in China’s energy and climate change policy development. Before joining KAPSARC, she worked at the Institute for Industrial Productivity (IIP) as a senior advisor and head of the China office, developing and disseminating best practices to improve industrial energy productivity. Before working at IIP, she worked at WWF China as director of the Climate Change and Energy Program, leading the design and implementation of the Low Carbon City Initiative in partnership with local Chinese governments and international networks. Before working at the WWF, she worked at China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Water Conservation, and the Xinjiang Wind Energy Company.

Expertise

  • Energy Trade
  • Energy Investment
  • Energy Politics
  • Regional Cooperation

Publications See all Dongmei Chen’s publications

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Research Associate Yagyavalk Bhatt is a research associate in the Transport and Urban Infrastructure program. His ongoing research portfolio at KAPSARC covers… Yagyavalk Bhatt is a research associate in the Transport and Urban Infrastructure program. His ongoing research portfolio at KAPSARC covers various projects related to economic research and analysis. These include examining the cost-benefit of rail electrification in Saudi Arabia and the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of the supply- and demand-side policies on the adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles and associated energy demand in India. His work also includes electricity market integration within the GCC and wider MENA region. He has authored and contributed to numerous research papers and studies related to the transportation and electricity sectors. Yagyavalk has a master’s degree in renewable energy management and engineering and a bachelor’s degree in electronics and communication.

Expertise

  • Road Transport
  • Rail
  • Plug-In Electric Vehicles
  • Oil & Gas
  • Renewable Energy
  • Clean Energy Fuels

Publications See all Yagyavalk Bhatt’s publications

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