Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.

What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China?

To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that:

  • China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization.
  • China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model.
  • Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system.

Authors

Dongmei Chen

Dongmei Chen

Research Fellow Dongmei is a research fellow with more than 20 years of professional experience on China’s energy and climate change policy…

Expertise

  • Energy governance
  • transport policy and industrial energy productivity analysis

Publications See all Dongmei Chen’s publications

Energy Governance in China: The Structures and Processes of Government Decision-Making

Energy Governance in China: The Structures and Processes of Government Decision-Making

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.…

May 14, 2019
The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China

The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.…

May 9, 2019
Yagyavalk Bhatt

Yagyavalk Bhatt

Senior Research Analyst Yagyavalk is a senior research analyst who has worked on developing the KAPSARC Renewable Energy Policy Atlas and the KAPSARC…

Expertise

  • Energy market
  • renewable energy transition and climate finance

Publications See all Yagyavalk Bhatt’s publications

The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China

The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.…

May 9, 2019
Abu Dhabi Electricity Sector – Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

Abu Dhabi Electricity Sector – Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.…

March 3, 2019
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