China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country.
What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China?
To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that:
China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization.
China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model.
Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system.
Research FellowDongmei is a Research Fellow at KAPSARC with a focus on energy trade, energy investment and regional energy cooperation. She…Dongmei is a Research Fellow at KAPSARC with a focus on energy trade, energy investment and regional energy cooperation. She has more than 20 years of experience in China’s energy and climate change policy development. Before joining KAPSARC, she worked at the Institute for Industrial Productivity (IIP) as a senior advisor and head of the China office, developing and disseminating best practices to improve industrial energy productivity. Before working at IIP, she worked at WWF China as director of the Climate Change and Energy Program, leading the design and implementation of the Low Carbon City Initiative in partnership with local Chinese governments and international networks. Before working at the WWF, she worked at China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Water Conservation, and the Xinjiang Wind Energy Company.
Research LeadYagyavalk Bhatt is an energy professional with more than seven years of experience in the transportation and electricity domain. Yagyavalk…
Yagyavalk Bhatt is an energy professional with more than seven years of experience in the transportation and electricity domain. Yagyavalk leads “The Role of Clean Energy Policies: Trends in India’s Transport Sector” project, aimed at estimating India’s transport energy demand and potential impact on crude oil supply chain.
His expertise covers energy policy, energy economics, transport modeling, the impact analysis of transport policies, emerging economies energy transition, renewable energy, and cost-benefit analysis of the transport and electricity sector. He has authored and contributed to numerous research papers and studies related to the transportation and electricity sector.