• Primary Program Policy and Decision Science
  • Research Interests Foreign Policy Analysis, Economic Sanctions, Geopolitics, International Politics of Renewable Energy


Emre Hatipoglu is a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Science program and leads the research project on Energy and Geopolitics. In this project, Hatipoglu and his colleagues assess how political events (e.g., international conflict, economic sanctions, international treaties) and global energy markets interact. Hatipoglu holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Pennsylvania State University.

Prior to joining KAPSARC, Hatipoglu was associate professor at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University in Istanbul and a a visiting Fulbright scholar during the 2017-2018 academic year at Columbia University. He also served on the advisory board of the Sakip Sabanci Center for Turkish Studies at Columbia University between 2016-2018. Hatipoglu’s work has been published in various scientific journals, such as the Journal of Politics, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Perspectives, and Defence and Peace Economics, among others. He is assistant editor for the journal Energy Transitions, and serves on the editorial board of the International Studies Review.




See all Emre’s publications
  • Book/book chapter
  • Methodology papers
  • Instant Insights
  • KAPSARC journal article
  • External journal articles
Turkey and the EU: Energy, Transport and Competition Policies

Turkey and the EU: Energy, Transport and Competition Policies

This book is the product of a research project on Turkey-EU relations launched at the time when Turkey’s accession talks were coming to a standstill. The purpose of this project, carried out by a team of faculty members from Central European University (Budapest) and Sabancı University (Istanbul), was to change the hackneyed research agenda of EU-Turkey relations and move the debate away from repeated iterations of perceptions of Turkey’s identity, its Europeanness, and its ability to adapt to EU norms. Instead, the project focused on strategic aspects of Euro-Turkish relations with a view to assessing how Turkey’s regional policy and its role in the neighbourhood might be reconciled with those of the EU even when its membership prospects remained bleak. Specifically, these studies aimed to (i) examine the extent to which Turkey’s policies have the potential to converge with those of the EU’s neighbourhood policies; (ii) provide a better understanding of how Turkey’s regional priorities might serve to strengthen or detract from its EU membership goals; and (iii) reassess Turkey’s potential to complement and reinforce EU policies and practices in its neighborhood. To these ends, the project produced 15 papers focusing on four specific policy areas and means of regional cooperation. Six of the papers are featured here in this volume. Authors: Ahmet O. Evin, Emre Hatipoglu & Peter Balazs http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/publication/turkey-and-the-eu-energy-transport-and-competition-policies

1st May 2016
World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes  and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.    

10th June 2020
Behavioral Aspects of Energy Transition: A KAPSARC-Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) Joint Methodological Report

Behavioral Aspects of Energy Transition: A KAPSARC-Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) Joint Methodological Report

KAPSARC’s work on innovation in electricity transitions has focused on unbundling services in the electricity sector (KAPSARC 2016) and developing the microeconomic foundation for a reliability service. Our research has investigated the experiences of industries resembling the electric power sector and those involved in the sharing economy that have recently faced technological disruptions. In Fuentes (2016), we argued that reallocating risk across the electricity market, and the apparent paradox between (spare) capacity and price signals (scarcity) could open up a new role for incumbent electricity firms. 

11th March 2020
The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

The Impact of Global Trade Disruptions on World Oil Markets

After decades of relatively smooth trade liberalization, a wave of protectionist measures and a global trade war is now threatening world trade. On September 1, 2019, the United States (U.S.) imposed a new series of tariffs on Chinese imports worth more than $100 billion.

4th December 2019
Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political decision-making process, this Instant Insight – the first such KAPSARC publication – finds that the international community, and indeed some of the waiver economies, will at best partially comply with reinstated sanctions. China, India and Turkey are particularly unlikely to comply with U.S. sanctions and will maintain much of their current oil trade with Iran, the modeling shows. The paper also simulates the likely impact on the global oil price of ending the waivers in four scenarios which show: i) no oil price rise if the sanctions don’t work at all, ii) an oil price rise of up to 12% by Q2 2020 if Iranian oil exports drop by an average 42%, iii) a 30%-plus price increase if the sanctions are 100% effective, and iv) no significant price change if Saudi Arabia offsets reduced Iranian crude oil exports by increasing its output and exports. The analysis in the paper is based on two in-house models: the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) and the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM).

9th May 2019

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