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Abstract

Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes  and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.

 

 

Authors

Jennifer Considine

Visiting Researcher Dr. Considine is a KAPSARC visiting researcher and a senior research fellow at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral… Dr. Considine is a KAPSARC visiting researcher and a senior research fellow at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy (CEPMLP) in Dundee, Scotland.  Previously, she led a number of projects involving options pricing, real options valuations of physical assets including electricity generation facilities, storage companies, and natural gas pipelines and contracts, risk management and hedging techniques, and trading strategies for a variety of commodities including natural gas, electricity and crude oil. Dr. Considine has worked with a number of international energy companies including Ecopetrol, TransCanada Pipelines, Westcoast Energy, Coastal Corporation, Duke Energy, and ANR Pipeline Company. She is currently chief editor of Energy Politics, an energy newsletter dealing with commercial strategies and strategic planning in the global energy industry.  Dr. Considine is a former member of the Board of Directors for Canada Post, and founding member of a number of initiatives to promote Scottish-Canadian relations including the Canadian Friends of Scotland.

Expertise

  • World oil and inventories
  • Commodity trading and technology
  • Russian oil industry
  • Econometrics options pricing
  • Commercial strategies.

Publications See all Jennifer Considine’s publications

Abdullah Aldayel

Senior Research Analyst Abdullah is a senior research analyst in the Markets and Industrial Development program, with a focus on oil markets and energy… Abdullah is a senior research analyst in the Markets and Industrial Development program, with a focus on oil markets and energy policies. He holds a B.S. degree in Petroleum Engineering from KFUPM.

Expertise

  • Oil Markets and Energy Policies

Publications See all Abdullah Aldayel’s publications

Emre Hatipoglu

Research Fellow Emre Hatipoglu is a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Science program and leads the research project on Energy… Emre Hatipoglu is a research fellow in the Policy and Decision Science program and leads the research project on Energy and Geopolitics. In this project, Hatipoglu and his colleagues assess how political events (e.g., international conflict, economic sanctions, international treaties) and global energy markets interact. Hatipoglu holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Pennsylvania State University. Prior to joining KAPSARC, Hatipoglu was associate professor at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University in Istanbul and a a visiting Fulbright scholar during the 2017-2018 academic year at Columbia University. He also served on the advisory board of the Sakip Sabanci Center for Turkish Studies at Columbia University between 2016-2018. Hatipoglu’s work has been published in various scientific journals, such as the Journal of Politics, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Studies Perspectives, and Defence and Peace Economics, among others. He is assistant editor for the journal Energy Transitions, and serves on the editorial board of the International Studies Review.    

Expertise

  • Foreign Policy Analysis
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Geopolitics
  • International Politics of Renewable Energy

Publications See all Emre Hatipoglu’s publications

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