Publications

K-DSGE 2.0: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia with Carbon Circular Economy Features

Hossa Almutairi, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru

This paper describes a substantially improved version of K-DSGE, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers.

Almutairi, Hossa

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

Sage Journals

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil shocks. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the country’s economic diversification policies, we build a resilience index based…

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, Baltasar Manzano, Marzio Galeotti

Resilience of Saudi Arabia’s Economy to Oil Shocks: Effects of Economic Reforms

Hossa Almutairi, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru

We assess the extent to which the implementation of Saudi Vision 2030 policies enhances the Saudi economy’s resilience to oil price and production shocks, and to the productivity of tradable and non-tradable goods. We extend Blazquez et al.’s (2021) dynamic…

Almutairi, Hossa

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Analyzing the Effects of Saudi Arabia’s Economic Reforms Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

Saudi Arabia is the world’s second-largest holder of proved oil reserves and the second-largest producer of petroleum liquids. The country is the largest exporter of crude oil, with a share of 16% of total crude oil exports in 2017. Saudi Arabia’s…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

Sector Coupling, Regulatory Convergence and Climate Change

T20

Climate change goals can be met through both the decarbonization of the electricity sector and the electrification of sectors that now use other fuels. However, the electricity sector is navigating major technological disruptions that are changing the essence of its…

Rolando Fuentes, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano, Nora Nezamuddin, Juan Jose Montero, Mathias Finger

K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The K-DSGE model is to be used for simulations and experiments to assess the impact of economic reforms within the Saudi…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

The ‘IPhone Effect’: The Impact of Dual Technological Disruptions on Electrification

SAGE Journals

Meeting climate change goals requires both the decarbonization of the electricity sector and the electrification of much of the rest of the economy. However, the electricity sector is navigating major disruptions that are changing the regulatory and business landscape. This…

Rolando Fuentes, Lester C. Hunt, Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz, Baltasar Manzano

How does Saudi Arabia’s recent energy performance compare with other G20 countries?

Baltasar Manzano, Rolando Fuentes, Nicholas Howarth

The 68th annual edition of the BP Statistical Review, released recently, is a comprehensive account and analysis of global energy data. Saudi Arabia will be hosting the G20 summit in 2020, and the release of BP’s annual compilation provides a good opportunity…

Manzano, Baltasar

Fuentes, Rolando

Howarth, Nicholas

The Value of Saving Oil in Saudi Arabia

Jorge Blazquez, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru

What is the value of saving a barrel of oil that would otherwise had been consumed domestically? This study explores the question, taking a long-run perspective into a general equilibrium approach. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the difference between…

Blazquez, Jorge

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Oil subsidies and renewable energy in Saudi Arabia: A general equilibrium approach

Energy Journal

In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the…

Jorge Blazquez, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano

Prices versus policy: An analysis of the drivers of the primary fossil fuel mix

Energy Policy

Energy policymakers often attempt to shape their countries’ energy mix, rather than leave it purely to market forces. By calibrating and simulating a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper analyzes the primary fossil fuel mix in the USA…

Tarek Atalla, Lester C. Hunt, Baltasar Manzano

The unstudied barriers to widespread renewable energy deployment: Fossil fuel price responses

Energy Policy

Renewable energy policy focuses on supporting the deployment of renewable power generators so as to reduce their costs through scale economies and technological learning. It is expected that, once cost parity with fossil fuel generation is achieved, a transition towards…

Edward Foster, Marcello Contestabile, Baltasar Manzano, Mark Workman, Nilay Shah

Prices Versus Policy: An Analysis of the Drivers of the Fossil Fuel Energy Mix

Jorge Blazquez, Baltasar Manzano

Understanding how the composition of a country’s energy mix is formed in an environment where greater government involvement is anticipated due to climate change obligations is critical. This paper is part of a project analyzing drivers of the mix and…

Blazquez, Jorge

Manzano, Baltasar

Challenges for Widespread Renewable Energy Deployment

Jorge Blazquez, Baltasar Manzano

Part of the policy strategy to avert the worst outcomes of global climate change is a transition to low carbon energy on an unprecedented scale. In particular, strong incentives are in place to promote the competitiveness of renewable energy technologies,…

Blazquez, Jorge

Manzano, Baltasar

Oil price: Endless ability to surprise

Nature Energy

[No abstract available]

Baltasar Manzano

Natural Resource Revenue Management Strategies in Developing Countries: A Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for Uganda

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Baltasar Manzano

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an opportunity to boost economic development. However, this opportunity brings with it potential challenges in the form of ‘Dutch disease’ and, potentially, the ‘resource curse’. A companion paper to this report: Managing…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Manzano, Baltasar

Macroeconomic Challenges for Eastern Africa

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Baltasar Manzano

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an enormous opportunity to boost economic development. However, success is not inevitable and the causes of failure have been extensively researched during recent years. This paper summarizes the challenges that can beset…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Manzano, Baltasar