Future of Transport and Fuel Demand Drivers of Transportation Fuel Demand: Aligning Future Scenarios and Policy Expectations The U.S. light-duty vehicle market represents a key test bed for some of the world’s leading vehicle regulatory policy programs. At the federal level, standards for model years 2022-2025 were established in 2012 under the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions/Corporate Average…
Energy and Economic Vulnerability Prices Versus Policy: An Analysis of the Drivers of the Fossil Fuel Energy Mix Jorge Blazquez, Baltasar Manzano Understanding how the composition of a country’s energy mix is formed in an environment where greater government involvement is anticipated due to climate change obligations is critical. This paper is part of a project analyzing drivers of the mix and… Blazquez, Jorge Manzano, Baltasar
Electricity Sector Transitions Is Unbundling Electricity Services the Way Forward for the Power Sector? Rolando Fuentes High penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) will lead to further fragmentation of the power sector, both in the services offered and its value chain. The ‘‘local’’ component of energy policies will probably become increasingly important. Fuentes, Rolando
Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys International Journal of Forecasting We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank. We present three empirical findings, all of which are robust to the number of respondents considered. First, the dispersion of forecasts is… Tarek Atalla, Fred Joutz, Axel Pierru
Electricity Sector Transitions Potential Gains From Reforming Price Caps in China’s Power Sector Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Axel Pierru, Frederic Murphy When energy sectors transition from government-controlled to market-driven systems, the legacy regulatory instruments can create unintended market distortions and lead to higher costs. In China, the most notable regulatory throwback is ceilings on electricity prices that generators can charge utilities,… Rioux, Bertrand Galkin, Philipp Pierru, Axel Murphy, Frederic
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Dividend: Is There a Role for Natural Resources? Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the most resource-rich countries in the world, many of whom are endowed with large oil, gas and mineral deposits. This discussion paper examines the role of natural resources in the economic development and demography of countries…
Electricity Sector Transitions The Renewable Energy Policy Paradox Jorge Blazquez, Carlo Andrea Bollino, Rolando Fuentes, Nora Nezamuddin One major avenue for policymakers to meet climate targets is by decarbonizing the power sector, one component of which is raising the share of renewable energy sources (renewables) in electricity generation. However, promoting renewables in liberalized power markets creates a… Blazquez, Jorge Bollino, Carlo Andrea Fuentes, Rolando Nezamuddin, Nora
Future of Natural Gas Markets LNG Markets in Transition: The Great Reconfiguration Anne-Sophie Corbeau The present situation in the LNG market should be seen as a “crossroads or a cliff” for the industry. The LNG industry has not been static over the past 5 decades and has already experienced many changes, but still the… Corbeau, Anne-Sophie
Productivity and Economic Diversification Investing for Energy Productivity in the GCC – Financing the Transition Steven Fawkes, Nicholas Howarth, Moncef Krarti, Padu Padmanabhan An unprecedented infrastructure investment boom occurred in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the first part of the 21st century. Strong public capital spending supported by high energy prices provided governments with an opportunity to accelerate economic diversification and infrastructure… Fawkes, Steven Howarth, Nicholas Krarti, Moncef Padmanabhan, Padu
Modelling residential electricity demand in the GCC countries Energy Economics This paper aims at understanding the drivers of residential electricity demand in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries by applying the structural time series model. In addition to the economic variables of GDP and real electricity prices, the model accounts for… Tarek Atalla, Lester C. Hunt
Electricity Sector Transitions Renewable Energy Policy in India: Creation, Implementation and Efficacy India aims to transition from a fossil fuel burning economy to a comparatively low-carbon economy through the increased use of renewables. To achieve this, India aims to build 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, establishing one of the…
Electricity Sector Transitions Quantifying Worldwide Demand Elasticities as a Policy Tool Carlo Andrea Bollino This paper provides a comprehensive worldwide database of estimated elasticities for electricity and natural gas for households as a function of income, price, capital stocks and weather conditions. Bollino, Carlo Andrea
Electricity Sector Transitions New Business and Regulatory Models for Utilities of the Future Technological advancements have the potential to disrupt the fundamentals of the electric power sector and to some extent make the current role of utilities obsolete. Many countries face this challenge but so far a generic business and regulatory model has…
The Expectations of Stakeholders in Eastern Africa’s Oil and Gas Local content is a political imperative in Eastern Africa, and how it is implemented has implications for the economics of oil and gas projects and could also affect expected government revenues. Policymakers need to weigh the trade-off between encouraging local…
Regional Energy Markets Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia Ziyad Alfawzan, Sadeem Alhosain, Nader AlKathiri, Shahad Alarenan, Brian Efird Trade between the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and North East Asia (NEA) reached $471 billion in 2013, based almost entirely on oil and gas. The GCC sends 44 percent of its exports to NEA, which depends on… Alfawzan, Ziyad Alhosain, Sadeem AlKathiri, Nader Alarenan, Shahad Efird, Brian
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand The Responsiveness of Fuel Demand to Gasoline Price in Passenger Transport Walid Matar Empirical estimates of fuel demand changes to price variation are based on historical consumption and prices, and can be applied as a single point estimate to a wide range of price movements. However, if fuel prices are set outside the… Matar, Walid
Future of Natural Gas Markets Will There Be a Price War Between Russian Pipeline Gas & US LNG in Europe? Around 150 mtpa of LNG export capacity will come to global gas markets over 2015-20. While Asia seems unlikely now to be able to absorb it all, Europe emerges as a residual market for flexible volumes. The question is, therefore,…
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand Will current EV and charging infrastructure policy lead to cost-effective electrification of passenger car transport? EVS 2016 - 29th International Electric Vehicle Symposium Governments around the world are seeking to expedite the electrification of passenger cars. Due to the particular policy approaches taken and market conditions, different mixes of BEVs and PHEVs and of rapid and slow public charging infrastructure are starting to… Marcello Contestabile, Mohammed Alajaji
Measuring persistent and transient energy efficiency in the US Energy Efficiency The promotion of US energy efficiency policy is seen as a very important activity. Generally, the level of energy efficiency of a country or state is approximated by energy intensity, commonly calculated as the ratio of energy use to GDP.… Lester C. Hunt
