AlKathiri, Nader

  • Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Energy Economics; Economic Diversification; Macroeconomics; Development Economics; Energy Transition

Biography

Nader AlKathiri is a principal fellow in the Energy Macro & Microeconomics program. He currently leads a project exploring how different energy transition pathways impact the economies of developing and developed countries, aiming to enhance our understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in achieving net-zero emissions. Nader’s research has been published in several international peer-reviewed journals such as Energy Economics, Resources Policy, and Applied Economics. Nader holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Sussex and an M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences from KAUST. He also holds an MBA in Finance from Prince Sultan University and a B.Sc. degree in Operations Research from King Saud University.

Publications

See all Nader’s publications
  • Book/book chapter
  • Discussion papers
  • Data Insights
  • Instant Insight
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal articles
GCC-NEA oil trade: Competition in asian oil markets and the Russian ‘Pivot’ east

GCC-NEA oil trade: Competition in asian oil markets and the Russian ‘Pivot’ east

KAPSARC: The purpose of this paper is to assess Middle East crude oil exporter strategies to maintain or expand market share in Asian oil demand. It also analyses the impact of changing global crude oil flows on key oil exporters’ revenues and on inter-regional price differentials by utilizing the KAPSARC Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM). Oil trade between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Northeast Asia (NEA) will be subject to new pressures as major crude oil producers from outside the region compete to place their barrels in Asia. African, Latin American, and Russian flows of crude are increasingly redirected towards Asia, challenging the traditional large exporters in the Middle East. GCC oil producers are engaged in a number of initiatives to protect market shares in Asia. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016.

1st January 2016
The Contribution of Energy to Economic Growth and Convergence

The Contribution of Energy to Economic Growth and Convergence

Using a sample of 94 countries, we analyze the contribution of energy to cross-country economic growth and convergence since 1980. By extending the traditional frontier approach to include energy as an additional factor of production, we decompose economic growth into components attributable to technological catch-up (movement toward or away from the frontier), technological change (shifts in the world production frontier) and changes in factor inputs per unit of labor (movement along the production frontier).

12th May 2024
The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

A clear objective of Saudi Vision 2030, the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is to put the non-oil sector at the heart of the country’s economic development. The vision realization programs (VRPs), such as the National Transformation Program and Fiscal Balance Program (FBP), have established initiatives and targets to help develop the non-oil sector. It is important, then, to explore the role fiscal policy can play in developing the country’s non-oil sector.  

19th July 2020
Restructuring Saudi Arabia’s Power Generation Sector: Model-Based Insights

Restructuring Saudi Arabia’s Power Generation Sector: Model-Based Insights

Saudi Arabia plans to reform and privatize its power generation sector as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. To provide analytical insights, we developed a model that simulates the restructuring of the electricity market, along with reforming fuel prices to an energy equivalent of $3/MMBtu.

20th December 2017
Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Framework for Developing Policies

Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Framework for Developing Policies

Oil revenue stabilization funds provide short-run protection against oil revenue fluctuations – in the way that Saudi government deposits and reserve at the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) have historically served as a buffer to decouple government budget from oil revenue fluctuations. By contrast, sovereign wealth funds create income for future generations to replace revenue streams from depletable resources – one of the purposes of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. We developed a framework for optimizing policies for adding to and withdrawing from stabilization funds, which we apply to Saudi Arabia as a case study based on publicly available data. The quantitative results are sensitive to the specific assumptions on the likelihood of particular oil prices arising but the overall results are robust to a wide range of assumptions.

4th October 2017
Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Trade between the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and North East Asia (NEA) reached $471 billion in 2013, based almost entirely on oil and gas. The GCC sends 44 percent of its exports to NEA, which depends on the GCC region for a very high proportion of its oil imports. Trade relations are otherwise very limited: the GCC takes only 3 percent of NEA’s exports.

8th August 2016
Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

It is popularly believed that importers of oil diversify their suppliers to achieve security of supply and that exporters diversify their customer base to achieve security of demand. However, this diversification comes at a cost, compared with buying from or selling to the most economically attractive counterparties— analogous to paying an insurance premium. In fact, our research suggests that this illustration may not properly describe the outcomes for large individual producers or consumers (or coalitions of these) and that diversification can also be a strategy for revenue maximization or cost minimization. We have developed KAPSARC’s Global Oil Trade Model (GOTM), which is calibrated to the configuration of the global oil markets in 2012, to demonstrate our framework. Our model shows that, in 2012, the volumes of supply and demand and the trade flows constrain the valid candidates to combine diversification with economic gain. Only the trading pair of the Arabian Gulf exporters and North East Asian importers can benefit. This is the illustration that we develop in this paper. However, a future reconfiguration of crude flows—perhaps with growth in North American exports to the Pacific or a major pivot by Russia to sell material volumes to China and other North East Asian customers—could introduce new players. KAPSARC’s framework may prove valuable to understanding potential future dislocations in crude oil trade flows.

6th August 2015
Behavioral Changes in Household Electricity Consumption from 2015 to 2022

Behavioral Changes in Household Electricity Consumption from 2015 to 2022

Analyzing the distribution of electricity consumption provides a clearer picture of distinct household segments and their behaviors. This approach allows us to identify clusters of low, moderate, and high consumers, offering insight into usage patterns.Such granularity can guide targeted energy-saving policies more effectively than averages alone.

2nd December 2024
Productivity of the Saudi Private Sector

Productivity of the Saudi Private Sector

This data insight sheds light on the correlation between the productivity of the private sector and the share of Saudi workers in the private sector labor force.

6th February 2024
The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

The COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to combat it have led to major global disruptions. Policymakers are faced with a dilemma that is not easily resolved. On the one hand, they are striving to protect public health by containing the spread of the virus. On the other, they must ensure the continuation of economic activities to mitigate the economic impact of the outbreak.

26th July 2020
Economic Growth and Convergence: Implications of Energy Transition Pathways

Economic Growth and Convergence: Implications of Energy Transition Pathways

The 44th International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) conference was held in Riyadh, co-hosted by KAPSARC and the Saudi Association for Energy Economics (SAEE). It was the first IAEE conference in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The main theme was “Pathways to a Clean, Stable, and Sustainable Energy Future.” The conference provided a platform for energy experts from around the world to discuss and plan changes in the planet’s energy system.

17th January 2024
Toward Fiscal Stability and Sustainable Development: The Role of Sovereign Funds in Saudi Arabia

Toward Fiscal Stability and Sustainable Development: The Role of Sovereign Funds in Saudi Arabia

The study, “Optimal Policies for Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: An illustration using Saudi Arabia,” conducted by researchers from KAPSARC, was recently published in the journal Resources Policy. It developed a model that optimizes the buildup and drawdown of a stabilization fund.  It offers key insights into managing a stabilization fund to support fiscal stability over the short and medium term.

26th July 2020
The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, aims to decouple the country’s economy from its reliance on oil revenues through implementing several economic and social initiatives. The key economic goals of SV2030 announced in 2016 include increasing the private sector’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) from 40% to 65%, raising the share of non-oil exports in non-oil GDP from 16% to 50%, and reducing the unemployment rate from 11.6% to 7% by 2030. It also aims to maximize local content by localizing more than US$70 billion of content, make economic agents more efficient and increase government revenues by removing domestic energy subsidies and introducing other non-oil revenue items, enabling further government investment. Developing the Kingdom’s non-oil sector would help it to meet these targets. Fiscal policy could also play a major role, given that Saudi monetary policy originated from the fixed exchange rate regime (pegging the Saudi riyal [SAR] to the US$). 

16th January 2020

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