Abstract

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income base and reduce the dependence on oil revenues. This discussion paper examines the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy, with a focus on the foreseen adjustments in the sectoral composition along with broader macroeconomic shifts. The evaluation of the expected diversification impacts is based on the updated Vision 2030 Input-Output Table that maps the changing economic structure over the coming decade. The advances in economic diversification are measured by applying the Shannon-Weaver index to sectoral GDP and household income. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of the foreseen diversification on the resilience of the Saudi economy to external shocks.

Authors

David Havrlant

Research Fellow As a research fellow, David contributes to a better understanding of the current and future economic environment of a changing… As a research fellow, David contributes to a better understanding of the current and future economic environment of a changing region. He is mainly interested in the development of models for policy analysis and forecasting. At the same time, he is involved in projects related to the Vision 2030 program, focusing on the economic transformation and diversification of the Saudi economy. Prior to joining KAPSARC, David worked at the European Commission, European Central Bank, Moody's Analytics and the Czech National Bank. In these institutions, he participated in economic policy analysis, forecasting and research. He also served as a consultant to central banks in the CEE region, managing a variety of economic modeling projects. David led courses in econometrics and operations research during his Ph.D. studies.

Expertise

  • Macroeconomics
  • Economic modeling and forecasting
  • Policy analysis
  • Applied econometrics

Publications See all David Havrlant’s publications

Abdulelah Darandary

Senior Research Analyst Abdulelah is an economist and researcher in KAPSARC’s Energy and Macroeconomics program. He primarily works with the KAPSARC Global Energy… Abdulelah is an economist and researcher in KAPSARC’s Energy and Macroeconomics program. He primarily works with the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) team and has published research papers in peer-reviewed journals. Previously, Abdulelah was an economic analyst for a major consultancy firm, where he conducted policy analyses and modeling, and forecast the impacts of public spending on social and economic indicators. Abdulelah was also the coordinator and a member of the Think20’s (T20’s) Trade, Investment, and Growth Task Force, where he co-authored several policy briefs. Abdulelah holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics and a Bachelor of Banking and Financial Economics from the University of North Dakota.

Expertise

  • Macroeconomics
  • Economic Growth
  • International Trade and Investment
  • Financial Development
  • Energy Demand
  • Public Policy

Publications See all Abdulelah Darandary’s publications

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