Abdulelah Darandary

Research Lead

  • Primary Program Energy Macro and Microeconomics
  • Research Interests Macroeconomics, Economic Growth, International Trade and Investment, Financial Development, Energy Demand and Public Policy, Econometrics, Energy Transition and its impact on the global economy

Biography

Abdulelah is a research lead at KAPSARC and an economist with expertise in various fields, including macroeconomics, energy, international trade and investment flows, financial development and public policy. He is currently leading the application of a behavioral economics project for energy policymaking in Saudi Arabia, utilizing econometric modeling and counterfactual analysis.

Abdulelah’s publications have been featured in several peer-reviewed journals. In 2020, during the Saudi G20 presidency, he was a member, co-author, and task force coordinator for the Trade, Investment, and Growth Taskforce for Think20 (T20), an official Engagement Group of the G20.

Before joining KAPSARC, Abdulelah worked as an economic consultant, providing policy analyses, modeling, and forecasting the impacts of public spending on social and economic indicators.

Abdulelah obtained a master’s degree in applied economics and a bachelor’s degree with honors in banking and financial economics. He received the King Abdullah scholarship and is a member of the Saudi Economic Association and the Saudi Association for Energy Economics.

Publications

See all Abdulelah’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology paper
  • Report
  • Data Insights
  • Instant Insights
  • Commentary
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level provides valuable insights for assessing the impact of previous and future policies. The regions of Saudi Arabia have unique social and economic characteristics (Mikayilov et al. 2020b) and are expected to react differently to changing policies.

25th June 2023
Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC). NDCs are essentially climate action plans that encompass a party’s climate target and the initiatives or policies that it plans to implement to achieve that target.

6th June 2023
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first estimates how theoretically articulated determinants (e.g., income and price) historically shaped natural gas demand. Then, this estimated equation is integrated into a macroeconometric model called KGEMM to simulate the impact of natural gas prices on key macroeconomic and sectoral indicators that are of policy interest for the coming years.

10th May 2023
Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and significance of the price and income elasticities for regional industrial electricity demand, this study projects regional industrial electricity demand up to 2030. This is done using estimated equations and assuming different future values for price and income. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities of industrial electricity demand vary across regions. The underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates some efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions.

13th January 2022
Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income base and reduce the dependence on oil revenues. This discussion paper examines the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy, with a focus on the foreseen adjustments in the sectoral composition along with broader macroeconomic shifts. The evaluation of the expected diversification impacts is based on the updated Vision 2030 Input-Output Table that maps the changing economic structure over the coming decade. The advances in economic diversification are measured by applying the Shannon-Weaver index to sectoral GDP and household income. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of the foreseen diversification on the resilience of the Saudi economy to external shocks.

14th April 2021
Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices fixed in nominal terms for years with minor adjustments.

13th September 2020
Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional estimation methods. National models of aggregate electricity consumption might not be representative, as electricity prices are administered regionally and Saudi Arabia’s regions have unique social and economic characteristics. We find evidence that the regions have unique responses to prices and income levels with regard to electricity demand. Additionally, we use our estimated model to project the regional baseline demand for electricity for Saudi Arabia and create a scenario to demonstrate how a price increase would impact these regions differently. This information is valuable for policymakers in Saudi Arabia, as the fuel mix to generate electricity differs between regions. Our baseline electricity demand projections indicate that under the assumptions of moderate economic growth and no price changes, total electricity demand in Saudi Arabia will reach 366 TWh by 2030.

5th July 2023
How the World Trading System Promotes and Impedes the Diversification of Developing Countries

How the World Trading System Promotes and Impedes the Diversification of Developing Countries

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility. Export diversification is especially important for developing countries as a source of foreign exchange and imported know-how. We examine how export diversification is affected by trade policies, including multilateral rules, regional trade agreements, and national measures.

11th December 2020
Saudi Arabia’s Input-Output Table: Computing Type I Multiplier

Saudi Arabia’s Input-Output Table: Computing Type I Multiplier

The General Authority of Statistics of Saudi Arabia has released the input-output tables this year for 2018, 2019, and 2020 (GaStat, 2022). These releases have extended the number of sectors representing the Saudi Arabian economy to 20 from the 13 sectors typically reported in GDP official reports. This disaggregation of sectors in the input-output table is valuable for analyzing new sector developments and targeted sectors in part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan. An advantage of input-output analysis is measuring the overall economic adjustments made through changes in final demand. Using input-output analysis, we measure the effects of various policies on value-added, household income, and job creation. Additionally, it offers insights into the development of linkages and interdependencies across economic sectors.

5th September 2023
Aggregate Real Energy Price Index

Aggregate Real Energy Price Index

Our aggregate real energy index is constructed in two steps. First, sectoral energy prices are obtained from Hasanov et al (2020). Second, the index is constructed by calculating a weighted average of these sectoral energy prices, in which the weight for each sector is its contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), which is obtained from GASTAT (2022). The index covers 17 sectors, including the energy end-use sectors (e.g., manufacturing and financial services) and the transformation sectors (e.g., power and refining). The index is adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI), also obtained from GASTAT (2022) rebased to 2010.

5th September 2023
Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

This data insight calculates the humidity-adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days for Saudi Arabia. This dataset can be used by researchers who model residential electricity demand, energy efficiency studies, and policymakers to base their potential policy scenarios on weather conditions.

19th July 2023
A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

It has been two years since the beginning of COVID-19, a one-of-a-kind crisis in recent history. The global economy was disrupted entirely in a few months and most economies faced shutdowns. While many disruptions can be explained, especially the economic disruptions, parts of the puzzle remain unanswered. In this instant insight, we examine the exceptional behavioral shift and trend break in remittance outflows from Saudi Arabia, which ranks in the top-five countries for remittance outflows globally.

30th May 2022
The Saudi Move into Hydrogen: A Paradigm Shift

The Saudi Move into Hydrogen: A Paradigm Shift

Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with its diversification plan, Saudi Vision 2030, by adopting hydrogen. The Kingdom is keen to enable the circular carbon economy (CCE) by producing and utilizing clean hydrogen. On September 27, Saudi Aramco announced its first shipment of hydrogen from Saudi Arabia to Japan. The 40 tonnes of high-grade blue ammonia shipment, which is meant for use in zero-carbon power generation, marks the first of its kind worldwide (Ratcliffe 2020).

6th January 2021
The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

The COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to combat it have led to major global disruptions. Policymakers are faced with a dilemma that is not easily resolved. On the one hand, they are striving to protect public health by containing the spread of the virus. On the other, they must ensure the continuation of economic activities to mitigate the economic impact of the outbreak.

26th July 2020
Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed strict international travel bans to limit the risk of importing the virus, or at least to sharply reduce the inflow of infected persons.

10th June 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Transport and Gasoline Demand

The Impact of COVID-19 on Transport and Gasoline Demand

In the last few months, the world has experienced the negative effects of COVID-19. The outbreak, which started as an epidemic concentrated in China, quickly spread to become a global pandemic. As of May 12, 2020, there have been over four million COVID-19 cases globally, and this number continues to increase.

21st May 2020

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