• Focus Area Electricity Sector Transitions Electricity Sector Transitions
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 9 March 2023
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Abstract

The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power for the generation of electricity. These variable and intermittent resources would modify power systems’ reliability compared to the situation where electricity is generated by conventional dispatchable power plants. It is also important to accurately capture their contribution to resource adequacy in long-term expansion planning. This discussion paper assesses how varying the firm capacity (FC) and forced outage rate (FOR) assumptions of renewable energy (RE) impact capacity expansion models (CEM). Eight scenarios that vary the FC and FOR, RE share targets, and annual RE uptake were run on a power system model of Saudi Arabia. Assuming a relatively high FC and a relatively low FOR favors renewables (i.e., Optimistic-RE), while the opposite disfavors them (i.e., Pessimistic-RE). Compared with optimistic RE assumptions, the pessimistic RE assumptions result in significant increases in costs, emissions, and battery storage deployment of up to 11%, 17%, and 41%, respectively. However, no observable patterns were found for resource adequacy. Quantifying the extent to which FC and FOR of RE technologies, which are considered heavily weather-dependent, impact investments in the power sector provides valuable insights for policymakers as the world moves forward more aggressively with RE deployment to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

Authors

Amro Elshurafa

Executive Director Dr. Elshurafa is the Executive Director of the Utilities and Renewables Department and possesses 20+ years of experience garnered on… Dr. Elshurafa is the Executive Director of the Utilities and Renewables Department and possesses 20+ years of experience garnered on three continents. His research interests lie in renewable energy policy, electricity market design and regulation, and power systems modeling. He has led and executed several national modeling initiatives at distributed and utility scales. Some aspects of his research have been adopted by BP in their seminal annual Statistical Review. He is listed among the top 2% scientists globally as per Stanford, and he is a board member of the Saudi Water and Electricity Regulatory Authority. Credited with 50+ papers and patents, he holds a Ph.D. in Engineering and an MBA in Finance.

Expertise

  • Renewable Energy Policy
  • Electricity Market Design and Regulation
  • Power Sector Modeling

Publications See all Amro Elshurafa’s publications

Marie Petitet

Senior Fellow Marie is a Senior Fellow in the Utilities & Renewables Department. Since she joined KAPSARC in 2021, her research has… Marie is a Senior Fellow in the Utilities & Renewables Department. Since she joined KAPSARC in 2021, her research has focused on power system modeling (KAPSARC Power Model), market designs for energy transitions, and framework analysis for reliable and resilient power systems. Prior to joining KAPSARC, Marie worked as a Research Engineer within the Research and Development (R&D) unit of the utility group EDF in Paris, France. During her EDF journey, she worked on long-term and short-term electricity market design, the transmission grid at the European scale, and smart-charging opportunities for electric vehicles. Marie also worked as a researcher within the Market Department of the French Transmission System Operator RTE. Marie holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Dauphine University, PSL (France), an M.Sc. in Environmental and Energy Economics from Ecole des Ponts ParisTech (France), and a M.Sc. in Engineering from ENSTA Institut Polytechnique de Paris (France).

Expertise

  • Electricity Markets
  • Power System Modeling
  • Electricity Market Design and Regulation
  • Energy Transition
  • Energy and Climate Policy

Publications See all Marie Petitet’s publications

Frank Felder

Visiting Researcher Frank is an engineer, energy policy analyst, and a visiting researcher at KAPSARC. Prior to joining KAPSARC, Frank was a… Frank is an engineer, energy policy analyst, and a visiting researcher at KAPSARC. Prior to joining KAPSARC, Frank was a Research Professor at the School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, Director of the Rutgers Energy Institute, and Director of the Center for Energy, Economics and Environmental Policy. In those roles, he conducted original and applied research in the areas of electric power system modeling, clean energy policies, and climate change for academic foundations, government agencies, and energy utilities. He has also worked as an economic consultant and nuclear engineer.

Expertise

  • Energy Policy
  • Electricity Restructuring and Energy Modeling

Publications See all Frank Felder’s publications

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