The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power for the generation of electricity. These variable and intermittent resources would modify power systems’ reliability compared to the situation where electricity is generated by conventional dispatchable power plants. It is also important to accurately capture their contribution to resource adequacy in long-term expansion planning. This discussion paper assesses how varying the firm capacity (FC) and forced outage rate (FOR) assumptions of renewable energy (RE) impact capacity expansion models (CEM). Eight scenarios that vary the FC and FOR, RE share targets, and annual RE uptake were run on a power system model of Saudi Arabia. Assuming a relatively high FC and a relatively low FOR favors renewables (i.e., Optimistic-RE), while the opposite disfavors them (i.e., Pessimistic-RE). Compared with optimistic RE assumptions, the pessimistic RE assumptions result in significant increases in costs, emissions, and battery storage deployment of up to 11%, 17%, and 41%, respectively. However, no observable patterns were found for resource adequacy. Quantifying the extent to which FC and FOR of RE technologies, which are considered heavily weather-dependent, impact investments in the power sector provides valuable insights for policymakers as the world moves forward more aggressively with RE deployment to reduce emissions and combat climate change.

Acting Program Director
Dr. Elshurafa is a Fellow in King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and possesses 20+…
Dr. Elshurafa is a Fellow in King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and possesses 20+ years of experience in energy and technology garnered on three continents. His research interests lie in renewable energy policy, power systems modeling, and hybrid microgrid design and optimization. He has led and executed several national modeling initiatives both at the distributed and utility scales, and he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally as per Elsevier. Some aspects of his research have been adopted by BP in creating their seminal annual statistical review. Credited with 50+ papers and patents, Dr. Elshurafa holds a PhD in electrical engineering complemented thereafter with an MBA in finance.
Expertise
- Power sector modeling
- Electricity markets
- Renewable energy policy
- Hybrid microgrid optimization
Publications See all Amro Elshurafa’s publications

Modeling of the Interconnected Middle East and North Africa Electricity System: Including Uncertainties to Better Inform Policymakers
The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic…
26th September 2023
Macroeconomic, Energy and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia
The undergoing energy transition relies heavily on the deployment of renewables such as solar photovoltaic…
14th September 2023