• Focus Area -
  • Type Commentary
  • Date 25 November 2024
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Abstract

This paper aims to address these discrepancies by reestimating an original empirical model of electricity demand using recently revised population data from GaStat (2024). The original model, which was developed by Mikayilov and Darandary (2024), relied on population data from GaStat’s 2021 edition, which covered the period from 1990 to 2019. However, these observations are extended from 2010 to 2022 in the revised dataset; additionally, improved enumeration methods and geospatial data, including satellite images, electricity consumption and mobile phone data, are incorporated to improve the accuracy and geographic coverage of address canvassing. With this approach, more granular residential data were captured, and a more precise headcount of populations, especially those in remote areas, was facilitated. These improvements have increased the accuracy of population figures and revealed significant differences between the old and new data.

Authors

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Principal Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Jeyhun is a principal  fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State…

Jeyhun is a principal  fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State University) in mathematics. Jeyhun holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics and a D.S. in econometrics. Before joining KAPSARC in September 2017, Jeyhun was an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at Azerbaijan State University, and the Department of Economics at Qafqaz University, where he taught econometrics, statistics, and mathematical economics. His other roles have included director of the Research Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, and head of the Center for Socio-Economic Research. Jeyhun was a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University Bloomington, United States (U.S.). He has also been a visiting researcher at several institutions, including the Center for Econometric Research, Sungyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland; the University of North Texas, and the University of South Texas, both in the U.S.

Jeyhun’s research is focused on applied time series econometrics, the economics of energy, the environment and sustainable development. He has authored over 40 scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals and is an editorial board member of the International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review, the Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, and the Journal of Socio-Economic Studies, and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Expertise

  • Applied Time Series Econometrics
  • The Economics of Energy and Environment
  • Sustainable Development

Publications See all Jeyhun Mikayilov’s publications

Raed Al-Mestneer

Fellow- Oil & Gas Dr. Raed is a research fellow and an Economist in the Oil & Gas program, with a particular interest in…

Dr. Raed is a research fellow and an Economist in the Oil & Gas program, with a particular interest in industrial development, economic diversification, and econometric modeling. He has worked with different types of econometric modeling techniques on different projects, especially in the field of economic diversification, oil prices and oil demand modeling. Prior to joining KAPSARC, he worked for Standard & Poor’s analytics and Capital IQ division in S&P’s headquarters in the financial district of New York, Wall Street, where he was involved in designing the first probability of default model tailored to the Saudi economy. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Southern Illinois University and was awarded a Master of Science in Economics from California State Polytechnic University. The title of his Ph.D. dissertation was “Economic Diversification: The Case of Saudi Arabia with Reference to Rich Natural Resource Countries.” He was assigned to lead KAPSARC's long-term sectoral oil demand forecast and outlook projects as a portfolio project manager. Through those projects, Dr. Raed, along with the rest of the project leads, was successful in developing forecasting models that forecast the long-term oil demand in different sectors (land transportation sector, maritime sector, aviation sector, petrochemical sector, residential/commercial building sector, agricultural sector, and power sector). Furthermore, Dr. Raed is a lead modeler of a project dedicated to forecasting the oil demand stemming from petrochemical feedstocks. He represented KAPSARC as a speaker at multiple conferences organized by the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) and workshops organized by the Office of the Economic and Development Affairs Commission (EDAC) of The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC). Dr. Raed was recently appointed by the Board of Trustees of Riyadh Economic Forum as a supervising member of a study titled “Maximizing the Economic Revenue from Natural Resources to Achieve Sustainable Development.” Dr. Raed worked in KAPSARC as a T20 Events and Logistics Leader. He has made signicant contribution by being the first Saudi to teach applied econometrics at the newly eatblished KAPSARC Academy to facilatiate one of their acceleration programs in collaboration with LUISS Business School. Apart of Dr. Raed ’s academic, research, and advisory work he was a key member of an organizational restructuring team to develop KAPSARC’s training and learning & development programs (TASAMI) to build human capital capacity.

Expertise

  • Research Interests Oil Demand Modeling
  • Econometric Analysis
  • Economic Diversification
  • Economic Development
  • Designing Policies to Mitigate Climate Change.

Publications See all Raed Al-Mestneer’s publications

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