• Primary Program Oil & Gas
  • Research Interests Research Interests Oil Demand Modeling, Econometric Analysis, Economic Diversification, Economic Development, Designing Policies to Mitigate Climate Change.

Biography

Dr. Raed is a Research Lead and an Economist in the Oil & Gas program, with a particular interest in industrial development, economic diversification, and econometric modeling. He has worked with different types of econometric modeling techniques on different projects, especially in the field of economic diversification, oil prices and oil demand modeling. Prior to joining KAPSARC, he worked for Standard & Poor’s analytics and Capital IQ division in S&P’s headquarters in the financial district of New York, Wall Street, where he was involved in designing the first probability of default model tailored to the Saudi economy. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Southern Illinois University and was awarded a Master of Science in Economics from California State Polytechnic University. The title of his Ph.D. dissertation was “Economic Diversification: The Case of Saudi Arabia with Reference to Rich Natural Resource Countries.” He was assigned to lead KAPSARC’s long-term sectoral oil demand forecast and outlook projects as a portfolio project manager. Through those projects, Dr. Raed, along with the rest of the project leads, was successful in developing forecasting models that forecast the long-term oil demand in different sectors (land transportation sector, maritime sector, aviation sector, petrochemical sector, residential/commercial building sector, agricultural sector, and power sector). Furthermore, Dr. Raed is a lead modeler of a project dedicated to forecasting the oil demand stemming from petrochemical feedstocks. He represented KAPSARC as a speaker at multiple conferences organized by the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) and workshops organized by the Office of the Economic and Development Affairs Commission (EDAC) of The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC). Dr. Raed was recently appointed by the Board of Trustees of Riyadh Economic Forum as a supervising member of a study titled “Maximizing the Economic Revenue from Natural Resources to Achieve Sustainable Development.” Dr. Raed worked in KAPSARC as a T20 Events and Logistics Leader. He has made signicant contribution by being the first Saudi to teach applied econometrics at the newly eatblished KAPSARC Academy to facilatiate one of their acceleration programs in collaboration with LUISS Business School. Apart of Dr. Raed ’s academic, research, and advisory work he was a key member of an organizational restructuring team to develop KAPSARC’s training and learning & development programs (TASAMI) to build human capital capacity.

Publications

See all Raed’s publications
  • Methodology paper
  • Instant Insights
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal article
A Meta-Analysis of the Long-Term Oil Demand Emerging from the Power Sector

A Meta-Analysis of the Long-Term Oil Demand Emerging from the Power Sector

Oil is a versatile source of energy that is used in various sectors, including the power sector. The power sector is transitioning toward low-carbon generation sources. During this transition, it is important to understand the role of oil-based power generation. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the long-term oil demand emerging from the power sector at the international level and by region. The analysis assesses and compares 19 prospective scenarios published between 2021 and 2023.

9th January 2024
Natural Gas Price Surge: Implications for International Energy Markets and the Way Forward

Natural Gas Price Surge: Implications for International Energy Markets and the Way Forward

What Are the Reasons Behind the Soaring Gas Prices? As the Northern Hemisphere has moved into winter, the current worldwide surge in energy prices has raised fears of an energy crisis with serious implications. The focus of this brief Instant Insight is twofold. First, we provide a brief overview of the current energy market. We then discuss the potential short- and long-term implications for users of natural gas, both residential and industrial. The analysis highlights that, although the world debated reducing investment in fossil fuels at COP26 in Glasgow, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its partners have had to deal with calls from major energy consumers to increase production to curb the current price trend.  

24th January 2022
Implications of IMO 2020: The Potential for High Sulfur Fuel Oil Penetration in Saudi Arabia

Implications of IMO 2020: The Potential for High Sulfur Fuel Oil Penetration in Saudi Arabia

January 1, 2020 marks the enforcement of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) rule on limiting sulfur emissions from ships (IMO 2020). The rule mandates ships to reduce the sulfur content in their fuels to 0.5% from the current 3.5%. This suggests that ship owners and operators need to replace about 3 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of heavy fuel oil (HFO) with high sulfur content – known as high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).

12th December 2019
The Importance of the Suez Canal for Global Energy Flow

The Importance of the Suez Canal for Global Energy Flow

On March 23, 2021, the Ever Given, a northbound ship loaded with more than 18,000 containers from China to the Netherlands drifted off course and became stuck in a single-lane section of the Suez Canal. As a result, hundreds of ships carrying food, oil, chemicals, and other goods were stuck at both the north and south entrances of the canal. This case was the first of its kind in the history of the Suez Canal – a cargo vessel caused the closure of the canal for a week due to a nonconflict event. However, the timing of the event was extraordinary, as the world was still struggling in its fight against COVID-19. The disruption caused by the stranded ship further exacerbated the supply chain chaos due to global lockdowns. The result was a halt to trade movement worth an estimated $400 million an hour (Baker, Watkins, and Osler 2021). After a week of dredging and tugging operations, the ship was successfully refloated and freed, leading to the opening of the canal.

26th December 2023
Energy Transition Amid Converging Global Energy Crises

Energy Transition Amid Converging Global Energy Crises

In this commentary, we provide a discussion of the factors that have led to the ongoing spike in natural gas prices. We then discuss the potential short- and long-term implications for the global energy transition and for users of natural gas, both residential and industrial. The analysis highlights that although the world has debated reducing investment in fossil fuels to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 1.5° C, major energy consumers have been calling for an increase in oil and gas production to meet immediate energy needs and curb the current price trend. While renewables have promise for enhancing energy security, the current energy crisis has revealed that at the present-day scale, renewable energy investments are not able to meet ongoing energy needs, forcing countries to again unlock hydrocarbon fuel sources, such as coal, and putting the global energy transition on hold. The paper concludes with recommendations for policies that enable clean energy developments to be unlocked amid strained geopolitical contexts to avoid future vulnerability to similar crises.

4th June 2023

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