• Initiative -
  • Type External journal article
  • Date 2 December 2012
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Abstract

In a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) setting, we show how the cost of a carbon policy for an open economy depends on the assumptions made about future exogenous structural changes. For dynamic CGE models, we propose an analytical framework derived from static CGE models and associate structural changes with the construction of a non-stationary dynamic Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Such matrices are benchmark scenarios that embed the modelers view on how technologies and preferences should evolve. These benchmark scenarios must be replicable and relevant (by matching what the modeler regards as plausible). To combine these two properties and produce alternative benchmark scenarios, we use partial parameter adjustments and general equilibrium computation. We produce three alternative benchmark scenarios that differ in terms of energy efficiency gains and structural shift in GDP. For each benchmark scenario, we then simulate the GDP deviation induced by a shock on carbon price. We show the dependence of the simulated GDP losses and terms of trade response on the benchmark scenario considered

Authors: Olivier Durant-Lasserve, Axel Pierru and Yves Smeers 

https://cdn.uclouvain.be/public/Exports%20reddot/core/documents/coredp2012_63web.pdf

UCL CORE Discussion Paper 2012/63

Authors

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Research Fellow Olivier is a research fellow in the Energy Systems and Macroeconomics program. Previously, he was an economist at the Organisation… Olivier is a research fellow in the Energy Systems and Macroeconomics program. Previously, he was an economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and at the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris where his activities covered macroeconomic policy analysis and applied general equilibrium modeling. He contributed to various modeling studies on the assessment of the macroeconomic, environmental and distributional consequences of energy and environmental policies. He also worked on the land-water-energy nexus and on the economic consequences of air pollution. Before he joined the OECD, Olivier worked at ENGIE, in Paris, where he developed an in-house modeling framework for quantifying global long-term energy-economy scenarios. While completing his Ph.D., he was a research assistant at the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.

Expertise

  • Macroeconomic consquences of energy policies

Publications See all Olivier Durand-Lasserve’s publications

Axel Pierru

Program Director Axel is the director of KAPSARC’s Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC’s interim… Axel is the director of KAPSARC's Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC's interim vice president of research. Axel joined KAPSARC in 2011, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles in France, where he led research, consulting and training projects. Axel received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris. He undertakes applied research that combines methodological innovation with practical relevance for policymaking. His research is focused on energy economics, policy, finance, oil pricing, and energy-exporting economies. Axel has been published extensively, with over 40 peer-reviewed journal papers to his name.

Expertise

  • Energy modelling
  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Oil pricing and finance

Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications

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