Publications

Net Zero Emissions in Saudi Arabia by 2060: Least-Cost Pathways, Influence of International Oil Price, and Economic Consequences

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

This paper presents possible net zero emissions (NZE) trajectories for Saudi Arabia at horizon 2060 and analyzes their possible economic consequences. We use an in-house hybrid forward-looking general equilibrium model of the Saudi economy. We construct a baseline scenario where…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Science Direct

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-Exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Revenues from oil and gas exports represent an important source of government budgets in some emerging countries. At the same time, these revenues fluctuate considerably due to changing global economic conditions and energy prices. Economic theory prescribes that governments should…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Karanfil, Fatih

Hard-linking a Top-down Economic Model with a Bottom-up Energy System for an Oil-exporting Country with Price Controls

Science Direct

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru, Hossa Almutairi, Abdullah AlJarboua, Shreekar Pradhan, Frederic Murphy

Nationalization of the Private Sector Labor Force, Quotas, Matching and Public Jobs, an Illustration with Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Modeling World Oil Market Questions: An Economic Perspective

Science Direct

The choice of a modeling approach is driven by the oil policy or market question that needs to be addressed. We provide the non-modeling community with insightful information on oil market models, shedding light on the economic interpretation of technical…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru

Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Since the Great Recession of 2008, oil-exporting countries have had to adjust their fiscal policies to respond to larger oil price variations and increased unpredictability. This commentary provides insights into the relationship between oil prices and fiscal policies in emerging…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Karanfil, Fatih

Policies to Nationalize the Private Sector Labor Force in a Matching Model with Public Jobs and Quotas

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries aim to employ more of their nationals in the private sector to absorb the inflow of new entrants into the labor force. They have put in place workforce nationalization policies to revert two peculiar features…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Impact of Methane and Black Carbon Mitigation on Forcing and Temperature: A Multi-model Scenario Analysis

Springer

he relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results…

Steven J. Smith, Jean Chateau, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Kalyn Dorheim, Kenichi Wada, Joeri Rogelj

Integrated Nexus Policies for Sustainable and Resilient Energy, Water, and Food Systems

T20

Population growth, climate change, and resource depletion put food and water security and energy supply at risk. Sustainable and resilient water, food, and energy systems are crucial to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and increase resilience to global health crises…

Jeffrey Logan, Toufic Mezher, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Layla Saleh, Pramod Kumar Anand, Jill Engel-Cox, Jordan Cox, Krishna Kumar, Tsisilile Igogo

Sectoral and Economy-Wide Effects of Domestic Energy Price Reforms in Saudi Arabia

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Hossa Almutairi, Abdullah AlJarboua, Frederic Murphy, Shreekar Pradhan, Axel Pierru

This paper simulates the sectoral and economy-wide consequences of deregulating energy prices in Saudi Arabia. Our analysis is based on KAPSARC’s general equilibrium energy model (KEMGE), a new hybrid computable general equilibrium model (CGE). The model examines the effects of…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Almutairi, Hossa

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Murphy, Frederic

Pradhan, Shreekar

Pierru, Axel

Can Better Technologies Avoid All Air Pollution Damages to the Global Economy?

Springer

This paper assesses the potential role of the implementation of the best available technologies to reduce the economic consequences of outdoor air pollution in the coming decades. The paper focuses on market impacts related with additional health expenditures, changes in…

François Chantret, Jean Chateau, Rob Dellink, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Elisa Lanzi

Taking Some Heat Off the NDCs? The Limited Potential of Additional Short-lived Climate Forcers’ Mitigation

Springer

Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Mathijs Harmsen, Oliver Fricko, Jérôme Hilaire, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Laurent Drouet, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kimon Keramidas, Zbigniew Klimont, Gunnar Luderer, Lara Aleluia Reis, Keywan Riahi, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith

The Role of Methane in Future Climate Strategies: Mitigation Potentials and Climate Impacts

Springer

This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as…

Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jean Chateau, Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jérôme Hilaire, Kimon Keramidas, Gunnar Luderer, Fuminori Sano, Steven J. Smith, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, David E. H. J. Gernaat, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Maria Cecilia P. Moura

The Drivers of Regional Growth in Russia: A Baseline Model with Applications

OECD ilibrary

Russia is a federation of more than 80 regions spanning across a huge territory. Natural resource endowment, inherited industrial specialization, remoteness and climate conditions contribute to large regional disparities. This paper presents an empirical framework model for assessing determinants of…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Hansjörg Blöchliger

Modelling of distributional impacts of energy subsidy reforms: an illustration with Indonesia

OECD

This report develops an analytical framework that assesses the macroeconomic, environmental and distributional consequences of energy subsidy reforms. The framework is applied to the case of Indonesia to study the consequences in this country of a gradual phase out of…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Integration of power generation capacity expansion in an applied general equilibrium model

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

This paper presents a version of a hybrid (top-down bottom-up), multi-region multi-period forward looking applied general equilibrium model, MERGE, that includes a capacity expansion submodel of the electricity sector with demand represented by various time segments. This model is solved…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Sensitivity of policy simulation to benchmark scenarios in CGE models: illustration with carbon leakage

UCL CORE Discussion Paper 2012/63

In a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) setting, we show how the cost of a carbon policy for an open economy depends on the assumptions made about future exogenous structural changes. For dynamic CGE models, we propose an analytical framework derived from static…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru

Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition: a general equilibrium approach

Energy Policy

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO2 price and global…

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Axel Pierru