The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

  • Program -
  • Type Commentary
  • Date 16 January 2020
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Abstract

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, aims to decouple the country’s economy from its reliance on oil revenues through implementing several economic and social initiatives. The key economic goals of SV2030 announced in 2016 include increasing the private sector’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) from 40% to 65%, raising the share of non-oil exports in non-oil GDP from 16% to 50%, and reducing the unemployment rate from 11.6% to 7% by 2030. It also aims to maximize local content by localizing more than US$70 billion of content, make economic agents more efficient and increase government revenues by removing domestic energy subsidies and introducing other non-oil revenue items, enabling further government investment. Developing the Kingdom’s non-oil sector would help it to meet these targets. Fiscal policy could also play a major role, given that Saudi monetary policy originated from the fixed exchange rate regime (pegging the Saudi riyal [SAR] to the US$). 

Authors

Fakhri Hasanov

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Principal- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience…

Fakhri Hasanov is a senior principal and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University.

His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Nader AlKathiri

Nader AlKathiri

Principal Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Nader AlKathiri is a principal fellow in the Energy Macro & Microeconomics program. He currently leads a project exploring how…

Nader AlKathiri is a principal fellow in the Energy Macro & Microeconomics program. He currently leads a project exploring how different energy transition pathways impact the economies of developing and developed countries, aiming to enhance our understanding of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in achieving net-zero emissions. Nader’s research has been published in several international peer-reviewed journals such as Energy Economics, Resources Policy, and Applied Economics. Nader holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Sussex and an M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences from KAUST. He also holds an MBA in Finance from Prince Sultan University and a B.Sc. degree in Operations Research from King Saud University.

Expertise

  • Energy Economics; Economic Diversification; Macroeconomics; Development Economics; Energy Transition

Publications See all Nader AlKathiri’s publications

Saad Alshahrani

Saad Alshahrani

Saad  is Deputy Minister for Macro-Fiscal Polices at the Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia. Previously, he was an economist at…

Saad  is Deputy Minister for Macro-Fiscal Polices at the Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia. Previously, he was an economist at the International Monetary Fund. He has served as a senior economic specialist at the Research and International Affairs Deputyship at the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. He has also been an assistant professor at Prince Sultan University, and a member of the establishment secretariat of the Gulf Monetary Council. Saad is a board member of the Saudi Economic Association and the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC). He is also a member of the Economic Policies Committee (EPC) at the OECD, and a member of the Financial Stability Committee. His research interests and experience encompass macroeconomic and fiscal policy, economic growth and development, public finance management, and econometrics. He received a B.S. in mathematics, and two M.Sc. degrees in statistics and economics, and a Ph.D. in economics.

Ryan Alyamani

Ryan Alyamani

Fellow- Energy Macro & Microeconomics Ryan Alyamani is a Fellow in the Energy Macro and Microeconomics program, specializing in economics, energy, and sustainability. His focus…

Ryan Alyamani is a Fellow in the Energy Macro and Microeconomics program, specializing in economics, energy, and sustainability. His focus is on developing economic and energy models for policy analysis. Additionally, Ryan has published a series of research papers in reputable, peer-reviewed journals.

Ryan holds a master’s degree in Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment from University College London (UCL), UK, and a bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering from Mercer University, USA.

Expertise

  • Economics
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental sustainability
  • Economic and energy modeling and Public policy

Publications See all Ryan Alyamani’s publications

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