• Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Econometric Modeling; Applied Time Series Econometrics; The Economics of Energy and the Environment

Biography

Muhammad is a senior research associate in Energy and Macroeconomics, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project. Before joining KAPSARC, Muhammad worked as a senior research economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in Islamabad. During his 18 years in research, Muhammad has worked extensively in the areas of energy, environment, trade and macroeconomics. He also has experience working for various research, academic and governmental organizations such as King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Benazir Income Support Program, Pakistan. Muhammad has published several peer-reviewed articles on electricity demand, energy, inflation, and environmental issues. He received Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission’s Outstanding Research Award 2015/2016 for his research paper titled “Environmental Kuznets curve and financial development in Pakistan,” published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Publications

See all Muhammad’s publications
  • Book/book chapter
  • Discussion papers
  • Instant Insight
  • KAPSARC journal articles
Interfuel Substitution in the Industrial Sector in Saudi Arabia

Interfuel Substitution in the Industrial Sector in Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken many decisive steps toward a more sustainable future, in line with its Vision 2030, including the use of clean energy, offsetting of emissions, and protection of the environment. In this context, Saudi Arabia has set an ambitious target to reduce its carbon emissions by 278 mtpa by 2030. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of interfuel substitution in Saudi Arabia’s industrial sector and to identify the role of substituting fossil fuel with carbon-neutral fuel, such as electricity, in meeting the CO2emissions target. A ridge regression method is used to estimate the parameters of the translog production function for the period 1990–2020.

25th October 2023
The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated how exports of chemicals and rubber-plastics were shaped by theoretically articulated domestic and foreign factors over the 1993-2020 period. Then, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), and a scenario analysis was conducted for the diversification implications of foreign and domestic price shocks until 2035.

22nd October 2023
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first estimates how theoretically articulated determinants (e.g., income and price) historically shaped natural gas demand. Then, this estimated equation is integrated into a macroeconometric model called KGEMM to simulate the impact of natural gas prices on key macroeconomic and sectoral indicators that are of policy interest for the coming years.

10th May 2023
Determinants of Remittance Outflows: The Case of Saudi Arabia

Determinants of Remittance Outflows: The Case of Saudi Arabia

International labor migration has played a key role in the development of both advanced and developing countries. Many developing countries in Asia have relied on labor migration, mainly to the oil-rich Gulf region, to reduce both unemployment and poverty (Naseem 2007). Mansoor and Quillin (2006) explain that poverty, unemployment and low wages in developing countries are the main drivers of migration from these countries. Higher wages and the potential for improved standards of living and professional development in resource-rich countries are pull factors for migration.

22nd May 2022
Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and significance of the price and income elasticities for regional industrial electricity demand, this study projects regional industrial electricity demand up to 2030. This is done using estimated equations and assuming different future values for price and income. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities of industrial electricity demand vary across regions. The underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates some efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions.

13th January 2022
Sectoral Investment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

Sectoral Investment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

This study aims to investigate the determinants of short- and long-run investment behavior in Saudi Arabia for eight non-oil sectors. Saudi Arabia is currently proceeding with its historic Vision 2030 reform plan, which aims to significantly increase the private sector’s contribution to the country’s gross domestic product. Thus, analyzing investments at the sectoral level is important for Saudi Arabia. Such an analysis can provide policymakers with a deeper understanding of potential opportunities for boosting private sector growth.

24th August 2021
Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling framework. This study’s modeling framework first estimates the non-oil export equation, which allows us to examine the historical impacts of theoretically articulated demand- and supply-side determinants on non-oil exports. This is done using Autometrics, a state-of-the-art algorithm for computer-automated model selection in the general-to-specific modeling strategy framework, with super saturation.

24th August 2021
Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

Achieving the desired level of employment is central to macroeconomic policy. Regulators should have a better understanding of employment dynamics in order to design appropriate policies and test their impact. Healthy employment levels not only benefit household income and the production factor of firms, but also help maintain sustainable economic growth and reduce poverty. Employment is a central element in the concept of inclusive growth (UN 2006; Bhalla 2007). Therefore, the dynamics of employment determinants have been the subject of considerable research to date.

7th April 2020
A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

It has been two years since the beginning of COVID-19, a one-of-a-kind crisis in recent history. The global economy was disrupted entirely in a few months and most economies faced shutdowns. While many disruptions can be explained, especially the economic disruptions, parts of the puzzle remain unanswered. In this instant insight, we examine the exceptional behavioral shift and trend break in remittance outflows from Saudi Arabia, which ranks in the top-five countries for remittance outflows globally.

30th May 2022

Stay informed

 I'm interested in

Select the updates you'd like to receive from us

About

A bit about you