Havrlant, David

  • Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Macroeconomics, economic modeling and forecasting, policy analysis, applied econometrics

Biography

David was a research fellow who contributed a better understanding of the current and future economic environment of a changing region. He was mainly interested in the development of models for policy analysis and forecasting. At the same time, he was involved in projects related to the Vision 2030 program, focusing on the economic transformation and diversification of the Saudi economy.

Prior to joining KAPSARC, David worked at the European Commission, European Central Bank, Moody’s Analytics and the Czech National Bank. In these institutions, he participated in economic policy analysis, forecasting and research. He also served as a consultant to central banks in the CEE region, managing a variety of economic modeling projects. David led courses in econometrics and operations research during his Ph.D. studies.

Publications

See all David’s publications
  • Discussion paper
  • Methodology paper
  • Instant Insight
  • KAPSARC journal article
  • External journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the income base and reduce the dependence on oil revenues. This discussion paper examines the preferred diversification paths for the Saudi economy, with a focus on the foreseen adjustments in the sectoral composition along with broader macroeconomic shifts. The evaluation of the expected diversification impacts is based on the updated Vision 2030 Input-Output Table that maps the changing economic structure over the coming decade. The advances in economic diversification are measured by applying the Shannon-Weaver index to sectoral GDP and household income. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to examine the effects of the foreseen diversification on the resilience of the Saudi economy to external shocks.

14th April 2021
Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method

Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method

When an economy is in the midst of a transformation and diversification process, it is hard to assume that its sectoral composition and inter-industry transactions will remain unchanged. This is especially the case since substantial adjustments to a country’s economic structure are at the heart of any restructuring plan. This paper introduces an approach that combines macroeconomic forecasts with the RAS method to produce long-term projections of input-output tables (IOTs), with an emphasis on key targets of Saudi Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s blueprint for economic diversification. A significant advantage of the input-output framework is its high sectoral granularity, allowing it to capture the impacts of adjustments to final demand or government policies with respect to individual sectors. Our hybrid approach enables the introduction of different growth paths for the main variables, so that Vision 2030’s transformation plan is reflected appropriately in the projected IOTs. The framework is flexible enough to accommodate sudden adjustments with relative ease, such as the introduction of new technologies or entire sectors into the economy. Saudi Vison 2030 includes a set of targets relating to economic diversification, improved energy efficiency, the introduction of new technologies, social transformation and the support of selected emerging sectors. These policies are expected to have a substantial impact on the Saudi economy, underlining the need for an adequate and flexible tool for projecting and evaluating structural adjustments in the economy.

12th April 2020
Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed strict international travel bans to limit the risk of importing the virus, or at least to sharply reduce the inflow of infected persons.

10th June 2020

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