Publications

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the…

Havrlant, David

Darandary, Abdulelah

Early Estimates of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on GDP: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

Taylor & Francis Online

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic sectors in a very heterogeneous way. In the early stages of the economic lockdown, only limited economic data, if any, related to the event were available. With the government’s discretionary measures to contain the…

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Abdelrahman Muhsen

Economic Diversification in the MENA Region

T20

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consists of a heterogeneous group of countries ranging from high-income countries in the Arabian Gulf to middle-income and least developed countries. A dominant concern in the MENA region is the high dependence…

Said A. Alshaikh, Jamal Alzayer, Imed Drine, David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Farah Durani, Salah Abu Nar, Hatem Akeel

Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Abdelrahman Muhsen

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed strict…

Havrlant, David

Darandary, Abdulelah

Muhsen, Abdelrahman

Saudi Vision 2030 Dynamic Input-Output Table: Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts With the RAS Method

David Havrlant, Mehmet Ali Soytas

When an economy is in the midst of a transformation and diversification process, it is hard to assume that its sectoral composition and inter-industry transactions will remain unchanged. This is especially the case since substantial adjustments to a country’s economic…

Havrlant, David

Soytas, Mehmet Ali

Economic Convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

European Commission, Economic Brief 034

This brief discusses economic convergence in the Czech Republic and Slovakia vis-à-vis the EU-28 during the past two decades, focusing mainly on developments in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. It addresses three questions. First, did economic convergence take place in both…

David Havrlant

Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models

Journal of Business Cycle Research, vol. 12(2), pages 165-185

In this paper we use a battery of various mixed-frequency data models to forecast Czech GDP growth. The models  employed are mixed-frequency vector autoregressions, mixed-data sampling models, and the dynamic factor model. Using a dataset of historical vintages of unrevised…

David Havrlant

On the optimal number of indicators – nowcasting GDP growth in CESEE

Austrian Central Bank Working Paper Series, issue 4, pages 54-72.

We employ principal components and dynamic factor models for nowcasting GDP growth in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies. Our estimation sample extends from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2008, our evaluation period…

David Havrlant

Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export

Prague Economic Papers

This paper aims to analyze the cost factors that influence the export of the Czech Republic, and to estimate models suitable for quantitative analysis of export and its prediction. According to the macroeconomic theory, the  fundamental export factors include foreign…

David Havrlant

Short-Term Forecasting of Czech Quarterly GDP Using Monthly Indicators

Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 61(6), pages 566-583

We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of six competing models at horizons of up to three quarters ahead in a pseudo-real time setup. All the models use information in monthly indicators released ahead of quarterly GDP. We estimate two models…

David Havrlant