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Biography

Colin was the interim director of the Markets and Industrial Development program. He has worked in the energy industry for 10 years in various capacities including seismic field work, refinery design and consulting for major international oil companies and national oil companies worldwide. Colin played a major role in several KAPSARC projects, primarily focusing on cost estimation for energy projects and environmental impacts of the global energy industry.

Publications

See all Colin’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Methodology paper
  • Instant Insight
  • Commentary
Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global oil demand. In particular, OPEC and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, are reshaping the organization’s role as the primary residual supplier to the world oil market. In recent years, OPEC has invited other major exporters, including Russia, to cooperate under the OPEC+ production agreement in an effort to stabilize prices.

6th August 2020
Enhanced Oil Recovery and CO2 Storage Potential Outside North America: An Economic Assessment

Enhanced Oil Recovery and CO2 Storage Potential Outside North America: An Economic Assessment

Storing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in oil reservoirs as part of CO2 -based enhanced oil recovery (CO2 -EOR) can be a cost-effective solution to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. In this paper, we analyze the economics of this option in order to estimate the amount of CO2 that could be profitably stored in different regions of the world. We consider situations in which the CO2 -EOR operator either purchases the CO2 supplied or is paid for its storage. Building upon extensive data sets concerning the characteristics and location of oil reservoirs and emission sources, the paper focuses on opportunities outside North America. Using net present value (NPV) as an indicator for profitability, we conduct a break-even analysis to relate CO2 supply prices (positive or negative) to economically viable storage potential.

29th January 2018
Evaluating Uganda’s Oil Sector: Estimation of Upstream Projects

Evaluating Uganda’s Oil Sector: Estimation of Upstream Projects

Uganda and other countries in Eastern Africa are on the cusp of developing many oil and gas resources, and there is reason for local content to be included in the discussion. As part of a larger research effort at KAPSARC – which includes determining the local capacity for goods and services, economic impacts and policy implications – estimating the actual costs for development are a key input. Drawing on government and public domain information, this paper makes a detailed assessment of the cost, schedule and production estimates resulting from investment in Ugandan upstream oil projects.

20th December 2016
A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

A Short-Term Forecasting Model for Brent Oil Prices

The KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) has been designed to provide readers with a timely source of data, forecasts and analysis of world oil markets, including an understanding of the key factors affecting world oil prices. This paper gives a detailed description of the scope of KOMO, including the models and methodology used in the analysis.

20th October 2019
KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook – Update

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook – Update

China reported an outbreak of a SARS-like viral infection on December 31, 2019. The disease, officially named COVID-19, was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and continues to spread globally. Initial symptoms are similar to the common cold, but in severe cases it can cause pneumonia and even organ failure. The Chinese government has taken a number of steps to try to contain the virus, including extending the annual Lunar New Year holiday, restricting travel, and suspending some business activities. All of these measures will have some effect on the country’s energy consumption. Given the growing concerns over COVID-19 and its impact on oil demand, KOMO has been updated and KAPSARC is examining a range of possible outcomes. 

18th February 2020
Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier” (Rioux et al. 2020). It constructs scenarios in which OPEC members, or OPEC members other than Saudi Arabia, start behaving as competitive price takers in 2020 and stop participating as part of a collective residual oil supplier. This analysis employs a standard economic equilibrium model to simulate the transition to a purely competitive world oil market from 2020 to 2030.

16th July 2020

Related workshops

See all workshops
30 Jun

Oil Market Forecasting & Outlook

Co-hosted With Paris Energy Club The objective of this workshop is to gather a wide array of people working on oil outlooks from different organizations, including agencies, traders, energy companies, and other related industries to discuss methodologies, models, and assumptions used to create the outlooks. Following this topic, it is also proposed to discuss short […]

08
09 Jul

The Path Towards a Hydrogen Economy:…

Co-hosted With Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) Hydrogen is a potential solution in reaching climate goals and decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like industry, buildings, and heavy-duty transport. It is also currently perceived as an energy vector: one that facilitates energy storage and can be used in the production of synthetic fuels. This makes it an essential component […]

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