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Abstract

Motivation and objective of the study

What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier” (Rioux et al. 2020). It constructs scenarios in which OPEC members, or OPEC members other than Saudi Arabia, start behaving as competitive price takers in 2020 and stop participating as part of a collective residual oil supplier. This analysis employs a standard economic equilibrium model to simulate the transition to a purely competitive world oil market from 2020 to 2030.

Authors

Bertrand Rioux

Research Fellow Bertrand is a research fellow focusing on the impact of market regulation and liberalization in energy markets. An experienced energy systems… Bertrand is a research fellow focusing on the impact of market regulation and liberalization in energy markets. An experienced energy systems model developer (linear optimization and mixed complementary problems), he is working on developing the KAPSARC Energy Model (KEM) as a decision support tool for analyzing price regulation in energy economies. Bertrand has contributed to the development of KEM Saudi Arabia and is the lead developer of KEM China, studying the impact of government regulation in the coal, power and natural gas markets. He was previously employed as a research assistant at the Canadian Space Agency.

Expertise

  • Modeling power systems
  • Electricity markets
  • Renewable energy
  • Game theory
  • Complex problem solving and climate change

Publications See all Bertrand Rioux’s publications

Abdullah AlJarboua

Abdullah AlJarboua

Former Senior Research Analyst Abdullah was a senior research analyst in the Energy and Macroeconomics program with interest in developing energy systems and energy-economic… Abdullah was a senior research analyst in the Energy and Macroeconomics program with interest in developing energy systems and energy-economic models. He holds a master’s degree in Computer Science from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and a B.S. degree in Computer Engineering from Tennessee Technological University.

Fatih Karanfil

Research Fellow Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his… Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his M.A. in economic analysis and modeling jointly from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University and the École Centrale Paris. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, Fatih was a research fellow at EconomiX-CNRS and an associate professor of economics at the University of Paris, Nanterre, where he taught econometrics, energy economics, and environmental economics. Fatih's current research focuses mainly on developing economic frameworks to provide insights into energy policymaking in oil-producing countries. His research has been published in general-interest economics journals (e.g., Applied EconomicsJournal of Comparative Economics and Macroeconomic Dynamics), as well as journals on energy economics (e.g., Energy Economics, Energy PolicyandThe Energy Journal).

Expertise

  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Environmental and resource economics
  • Applied economics

Publications See all Fatih Karanfil’s publications

Axel Pierru

Program Director Axel is the director of KAPSARC’s Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC’s interim… Axel is the director of KAPSARC's Energy and Macroeconomics program. From October 2018 to March 2019, he was KAPSARC's interim vice president of research. Axel joined KAPSARC in 2011, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles in France, where he led research, consulting and training projects. Axel received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris. He undertakes applied research that combines methodological innovation with practical relevance for policymaking. His research is focused on energy economics, policy, finance, oil pricing, and energy-exporting economies. Axel has been published extensively, with over 40 peer-reviewed journal papers to his name.

Expertise

  • Energy modelling
  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Oil pricing and finance

Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications

Shahd Alrashed

Shahd Alrashed

Former Research Associate Shahd was a senior research associate in the Markets and Industrial Development program. A mechanical engineer by background, she previously… Shahd was a senior research associate in the Markets and Industrial Development program. A mechanical engineer by background, she previously worked at Chevron as a flare and relief systems engineer and a facilities engineer supporting upstream and downstream Chevron facilities worldwide, with consultations and technical services based in Houston, Texas and Bakersfield, California. Shahd holds a master's degree in mechanical engineering with a focus on advanced energy systems from UC Berkeley and a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering with a concentration in manufacturing engineering from Boston University.

Colin Ward

Research Fellow Colin is a Fellow in the Markets and Industrial Development program, focusing on oil markets. He has worked in many… Colin is a Fellow in the Markets and Industrial Development program, focusing on oil markets. He has worked in many capacities across the energy industry including seismic field work, upstream field development, refinery design, cost estimation, and consulting for major international and national oil companies worldwide. He is currently involved in several major projects, most notably the KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO), digital carbon tracking, and in supporting the energy ecosystem.

Expertise

Publications See all Colin Ward’s publications

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