• Focus Area Future of Global Oil Markets Future of Global Oil Markets
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 6 August 2020
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Abstract

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global oil demand. In particular, OPEC and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, are reshaping the organization’s role as the primary residual supplier to the world oil market. In recent years, OPEC has invited other major exporters, including Russia, to cooperate under the OPEC+ production agreement in an effort to stabilize prices.

Authors

Bertrand Rioux

Bertrand Rioux

Bertrand is a research fellow focusing on the impact of market regulation and liberalization in energy markets. An experienced energy systems… Bertrand is a research fellow focusing on the impact of market regulation and liberalization in energy markets. An experienced energy systems model developer (linear optimization and mixed complementary problems), he is working on developing the KAPSARC Energy Model (KEM) as a decision support tool for analyzing price regulation in energy economies. Bertrand has contributed to the development of KEM Saudi Arabia and is the lead developer of KEM China, studying the impact of government regulation in the coal, power and natural gas markets. He was previously employed as a research assistant at the Canadian Space Agency.

Abdullah AlJarboua

Research Lead Abdullah is a research lead in the Energy Macro & Microeconomics program with an interest in developing energy systems and…

Abdullah is a research lead in the Energy Macro & Microeconomics program with an interest in developing energy systems and energy-economic models. Before rejoining KAPSARC, he worked as an economic modeling expert in the telecommunications sector.

Abdullah holds a master’s degree in computer science from King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and a B.S. in Computer Engineering from Tennessee Technological University.

Expertise

  • Energy Systems Modeling
  • Energy-Economic Modeling
  • Economic Modeling
  • Large-scale Optimization
  • Relaxation and Decomposition Methods
  • Macroeconomics

Publications See all Abdullah AlJarboua’s publications

Fatih Karanfil

Research Fellow Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his… Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his M.A. in economic analysis and modeling jointly from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University and the École Centrale Paris. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, Fatih was a research fellow at EconomiX-CNRS and an associate professor of economics at the University of Paris, Nanterre, where he taught econometrics, energy economics, and environmental economics. Fatih's current research focuses mainly on developing economic frameworks to provide insights into energy policymaking in oil-producing countries. His research has been published in general-interest economics journals (e.g., Applied EconomicsJournal of Comparative Economics and Macroeconomic Dynamics), as well as journals on energy economics (e.g., Energy Economics, Energy PolicyandThe Energy Journal).

Expertise

  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Environmental and resource economics
  • Applied economics

Publications See all Fatih Karanfil’s publications

Axel Pierru

Acting Vice President/ Program Director In February 2023, Axel Pierru was assigned as Acting Vice President of Knowledge and Analysis for the Center. He received…

In February 2023, Axel Pierru was assigned as Acting Vice President of Knowledge and Analysis for the Center. He received his Ph.D. in economics from University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (France). He also holds an HDR degree, which is a French accreditation to supervise research. In 2007, Dr. Pierru was appointed Chevalier dans l’Ordre des Palmes Académiques (knighthood award in the academic field) by the French Ministry for National Education. He is the recipient of the 2023 OPEC Award for the Best Energy Research Paper (issued by OPEC for the first time).

In 2011 Dr. Pierru joined KAPSARC in Saudi Arabia, after spending 15 years at IFP Energies Nouvelles (France) where he led research, consulting and training projects and taught energy economics and finance to postgraduate students.

Dr. Pierru has served in various leadership positions at KAPSARC, including as interim Vice President for Research. Since 2014 he has been a program director, and currently he leads the Energy Macro & Micro-economics Program.

He undertakes applied research that combines methodological innovation with practical relevance for policymaking. His expertise covers energy economics, policy, finance, modeling, the oil market, and commodity-exporting economies.

Dr. Pierru has a proven track record of methodological innovations with 50 journal papers to his name. He has been a key contributor to the development of novel lines of research, such as the role of OPEC in stabilizing the oil market, the economic modeling of price controls, or the evaluation of investment projects by international oil companies facing various tax systems.

He also coauthored with Denis Babusiaux the book Corporate Investment Decisions and Economic Analysis: Exercises and Case Studies (2005), which is the fruit of years of teaching, consulting and research, and contains numerous examples from the energysector.

Expertise

  • Energy modelling
  • Energy economics
  • Energy policy
  • Oil pricing and finance

Publications See all Axel Pierru’s publications

Shahd Alrashed

Shahd Alrashed

Former Research Associate Shahd was a senior research associate in the Markets and Industrial Development program. A mechanical engineer by background, she previously… Shahd was a senior research associate in the Markets and Industrial Development program. A mechanical engineer by background, she previously worked at Chevron as a flare and relief systems engineer and a facilities engineer supporting upstream and downstream Chevron facilities worldwide, with consultations and technical services based in Houston, Texas and Bakersfield, California. Shahd holds a master's degree in mechanical engineering with a focus on advanced energy systems from UC Berkeley and a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering with a concentration in manufacturing engineering from Boston University.

Colin Ward

Research Fellow Mr. Ward has worked in all aspects of the energy industry from summer jobs on seismic rigs, to designing refineries,… Mr. Ward has worked in all aspects of the energy industry from summer jobs on seismic rigs, to designing refineries, upstream field development, consulting and strategy work, and now high-impact academic analysis of issues facing the energy system. Much of Mr. Ward’s work in recent years has focused on CCUS-related topics including upstream carbon intensity, CO2-EOR, blue hydrogen, hydrocarbon producer strategy in a carbon-constrained world, and blockchain-based carbon tracking and trading.

Expertise

  • Oil Markets
  • Upstream
  • Carbon
  • CCUS
  • Hydrogen
  • Technology
  • Strategy and Consulting

Publications See all Colin Ward’s publications

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