Karanfil, Fatih

  • Primary Program Energy and Macroeconomics
  • Research Interests Energy economics, energy policy, environmental and resource economics, applied economics

Biography

Fatih is a research fellow at KAPSARC.He received his Ph.D. in economics from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University in Paris and his M.A. in economic analysis and modeling jointly from the Pantheon-Sorbonne University and the École Centrale Paris. Before joining KAPSARC in December 2017, Fatih was a research fellow at EconomiX-CNRS and an associate professor of economics at the University of Paris, Nanterre, where he taught econometrics, energy economics, and environmental economics.

Fatih’s current research focuses mainly on developing economic frameworks to provide insights into energy policymaking in oil-producing countries. His research has been published in general-interest economics journals (e.g., Applied Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics and Macroeconomic Dynamics), as well as journals on energy economics (e.g., Energy Economics, Energy PolicyandThe Energy Journal).

Publications

See all Fatih’s publications
  • Discussion papers
  • Commentaries
  • KAPSARC journal articles
  • External journal articles
  • Think20 (T20)
Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-Exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-Exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Revenues from oil and gas exports represent an important source of government budgets in some emerging countries. At the same time, these revenues fluctuate considerably due to changing global economic conditions and energy prices. Economic theory prescribes that governments should try to stabilize their economies by saving windfall oil and gas revenues and spending them in periods of price downturns. However, oil- and gas-exporting countries often run procyclical policies, that is, they increase spending during windfall periods and reduce it in the event of a shortfall, which may result in severe recessions. Understanding what drives the response of fiscal policy to oil and gas revenue shocks is important as it helps to explain what makes the economies of commodity exporters more or less vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and how they can adjust to price volatility and to the long-term energy transition.

4th July 2023
The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

The energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not stably maintained. These countries can protect themselves against revenue volatility and mitigate carbon risk by diversifying their economies. However, export diversification appears to be particularly challenging for many oil-producing countries.

11th May 2023
Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global oil demand. In particular, OPEC and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, are reshaping the organization’s role as the primary residual supplier to the world oil market. In recent years, OPEC has invited other major exporters, including Russia, to cooperate under the OPEC+ production agreement in an effort to stabilize prices.

6th August 2020
The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

When appraising investment projects from a public perspective, a barrel of oil displaced from or added to domestic consumption has to be valued at its opportunity cost. This paper develops a partial-equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil-exporting country. The framework takes into account that (i) the usual ‘small economy’ assumption does not necessarily hold, (ii) the domestic oil price can be set either at a fixed level or as a function of the international price, and (iii) oil production, level of exports, or domestic consumption can be constrained. We derive the opportunity cost for each case considered and a formula quantifying the net welfare gains from reforming the domestic oil price

1st March 2020
Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

Since the Great Recession of 2008, oil-exporting countries have had to adjust their fiscal policies to respond to larger oil price variations and increased unpredictability. This commentary provides insights into the relationship between oil prices and fiscal policies in emerging and developing (ED) oil-exporting countries. It also gives an overview of how fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) can contribute to mitigating fluctuations in oil revenues and stabilizing economies. Last, it discusses the fiscal responses of oil-exporting countries to the COVID-19 crisis.

25th April 2021
Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier” (Rioux et al. 2020). It constructs scenarios in which OPEC members, or OPEC members other than Saudi Arabia, start behaving as competitive price takers in 2020 and stop participating as part of a collective residual oil supplier. This analysis employs a standard economic equilibrium model to simulate the transition to a purely competitive world oil market from 2020 to 2030.

16th July 2020

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