Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

  • Home
  • >
  • Research
  • >
  • Publications
  • >
  • Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics
  • Initiative -
  • Type Discussion paper
  • Date 13 January 2022
Print

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and significance of the price and income elasticities for regional industrial electricity demand, this study projects regional industrial electricity demand up to 2030. This is done using estimated equations and assuming different future values for price and income. The results show that the long-run income and price elasticities of industrial electricity demand vary across regions. The underlying energy demand trend analysis indicates some efficiency improvements in industrial electricity consumption patterns in all regions.

Authors

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Research Fellow Jeyhun is a research fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State… Jeyhun is a research fellow at KAPSARC. He received his B.A. and M.S. from Azerbaijan State University (now Baku State University) in mathematics. Jeyhun holds a Ph.D. in applied mathematics and a D.S. in econometrics. Before joining KAPSARC in September 2017, Jeyhun was an associate professor at the Department of Statistics and Econometrics at Azerbaijan State University, and the Department of Economics at Qafqaz University, where he taught econometrics, statistics, and mathematical economics. His other roles have included director of the Research Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, and head of the Center for Socio-Economic Research. Jeyhun was a postdoctoral researcher at Indiana University Bloomington, United States (U.S.). He has also been a visiting researcher at several institutions, including the Center for Econometric Research, Sungyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea; Vistula University, Warsaw, Poland; the University of North Texas, and the University of South Texas, both in the U.S. Jeyhun’s research is focused on applied time series econometrics, the economics of energy, the environment and sustainable development. He has authored over 40 scientific articles published in peer-reviewed journals and is an editorial board member of the International Journal of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research and Review, the Journal of Management, Economics and Industrial Organization, and the Journal of Socio-Economic Studies, and a member of the International Association for Energy Economics.

Expertise

  • Applied Time Series Econometrics
  • The Economics of Energy and Environment
  • Sustainable Development

Publications See all Jeyhun Mikayilov’s publications

Ryan Alyamani

Ryan Alyamani

Senior Research Analyst Ryan is a senior research analyst in the Energy and Macroeconomics program with a particular interest in natural resource economics… Ryan is a senior research analyst in the Energy and Macroeconomics program with a particular interest in natural resource economics and developing energy and economic models. Ryan holds a B.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from Mercer University.

Expertise

  • Energy Economics
  • Natural resource economics
  • Energy and Economic Modeling

Publications See all Ryan Alyamani’s publications

Abdulelah Darandary

Abdulelah Darandary

Research Lead Abdulelah is a research lead at KAPSARC and an economist with expertise in various fields, including macroeconomics, energy, international trade… Abdulelah is a research lead at KAPSARC and an economist with expertise in various fields, including macroeconomics, energy, international trade and investment flows, financial development and public policy. He is currently leading the application of a behavioral economics project for energy policymaking in Saudi Arabia, utilizing econometric modeling and counterfactual analysis. Abdulelah's publications have been featured in several peer-reviewed journals. In 2020, during the Saudi G20 presidency, he was a member, co-author, and task force coordinator for the Trade, Investment, and Growth Taskforce for Think20 (T20), an official Engagement Group of the G20. Before joining KAPSARC, Abdulelah worked as an economic consultant, providing policy analyses, modeling, and forecasting the impacts of public spending on social and economic indicators. Abdulelah obtained a master's degree in applied economics and a bachelor's degree with honors in banking and financial economics. He received the King Abdullah scholarship and is a member of the Saudi Economic Association and the Saudi Association for Energy Economics.

Expertise

  • Macroeconomics
  • Economic Growth
  • International Trade and Investment
  • Financial Development
  • Energy Demand and Public Policy
  • Econometrics
  • Energy Transition and its impact on the global economy

Publications See all Abdulelah Darandary’s publications

Muhammad Javid

Muhammad Javid

Senior Research Associate Muhammad is a senior research associate in Energy and Macroeconomics, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM)… Muhammad is a senior research associate in Energy and Macroeconomics, currently working on the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM) project. Before joining KAPSARC, Muhammad worked as a senior research economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in Islamabad. During his 18 years in research, Muhammad has worked extensively in the areas of energy, environment, trade and macroeconomics. He also has experience working for various research, academic and governmental organizations such as King Saud University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Benazir Income Support Program, Pakistan. Muhammad has published several peer-reviewed articles on electricity demand, energy, inflation, and environmental issues. He received Pakistan’s Higher Education Commission’s Outstanding Research Award 2015/2016 for his research paper titled “Environmental Kuznets curve and financial development in Pakistan,” published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Expertise

  • Econometric Modeling; Applied Time Series Econometrics; The Economics of Energy and the Environment

Publications See all Muhammad Javid’s publications

Fakhri Hasanov

Fakhri Hasanov

Senior Fellow I Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience… Fakhri Hasanov is a senior fellow and leads the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model projects with 20+ years of experience in econometric modeling and forecasting. Since 2015, he has been involved in multistakeholder projects, leading and executing macroeconomic analysis of various policy choices and initiatives (e.g., energy prices, energy demand, and fiscal reforms) for the Kingdom’s economy. He has extensive experience working with policymakers. Prior to KAPSARC, he was a post-doc at George Washington University. His research mainly covers macro-econometric modeling for energy and environmental economics policy analyses. Dr. Hasanov has authored 50+ applied studies published in reputable journals such as Energy Policy, Energy Economics, Empirical Economics, and Energy Strategy Review. His research is recognized internationally (e.g., he is listed among the top 2% of scientists globally by Elsevier). Fakhri is an editorial board member of various peer-reviewed journals, such as Frontiers in Environmental Science. He holds a Ph.D. in econometrics.

Expertise

  • Econometric modeling and forecasting
  • Time series and panel data econometrics
  • Macroeconometric models for policy analyses
  • Energy economics
  • Environmental economics.

Publications See all Fakhri Hasanov’s publications

Saleh T. AlTurki

Saleh T. AlTurki

Rey B. Arnaiz

Rey B. Arnaiz

Share this Publication

Stay informed

I'm interested in

Select the updates you'd like to receive from us

About

A bit about you