Publications

A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on the World’s Largest Oil Exporter

Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz

Open Access Brief Introduces the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia Combines cutting-edge econometric methods, a well-established theoretical foundation, and empirical coherence Customizable for different research and policy questions   Click here to read the book

Javid, Muhammad

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Muhammad Javid

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Javid, Muhammad

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are The Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Taylor & Francis

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Taylor and Francis Online

The paper investigates gasoline consumption in case of oil-exporting country applying Time-varying Coefficient Cointegration approach to the data from 1980 to 2017. Empirical estimations show that long-run income and price elasticities are not constant and are responsive to price and…

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

Modeling Sectoral Employment in Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Moayad H. Al-Rassasi, Mohammed Al-Abdullah, Fred Joutz, Muhammad Javid

Achieving the desired level of employment is central to macroeconomic policy. Regulators should have a better understanding of employment dynamics in order to design appropriate policies and test their impact. Healthy employment levels not only benefit household income and the production factor of firms, but also…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Moayad H. Al-Rassasi

Mohammed Al-Abdullah

Joutz, Fred

Javid, Muhammad

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Jeyhun Mikayilov

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are the Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

After the drop in international oil prices in 2014, oil-exporting countries started to launch new policies to develop their economies. It is important that policymakers involved in energy and economic development understand how economic agents respond to increased energy prices…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Joutz, Fred

Hasanov, Fakhri

The Changing Impact of Income and Price on Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

The growth path of gasoline demand, a key strategic fuel, has important implications for oil security, oil-related carbon emissions, and refinery investment (Dahl 2012). As such, understanding how fluctuations in income and gasoline prices could affect the demand for oil…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Joutz, Fred

Hasanov, Fakhri

Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys

International Journal of Forecasting

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank. We present three empirical findings, all of which are robust to the number of respondents considered. First, the dispersion of forecasts is…

Tarek Atalla, Fred Joutz, Axel Pierru

Natural Resource Revenue Management Strategies in Developing Countries: A Calibrated Macroeconomic Model for Uganda

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Baltasar Manzano

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an opportunity to boost economic development. However, this opportunity brings with it potential challenges in the form of ‘Dutch disease’ and, potentially, the ‘resource curse’. A companion paper to this report: Managing…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Manzano, Baltasar

Macroeconomic Challenges for Eastern Africa

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Baltasar Manzano

Recent natural resource discoveries in Eastern Africa provide an enormous opportunity to boost economic development. However, success is not inevitable and the causes of failure have been extensively researched during recent years. This paper summarizes the challenges that can beset…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Manzano, Baltasar