Publications

Myths and Mysteries About Speculation in the Oil Market

Ilia Bouchouev, Wu-Yen (Jonathan) Sun

The article provides unique quantitative insights about highly secretive and poorly understood speculation in the oil market. To demystify the behavior of speculators, we look at the problem from five different angles. First, we explain how the presence of large…

Ilia Bouchouev

Sun, Wu-Yen (Jonathan)

Advancing Plastic Waste Recycling in the GCC: Policies, Technologies, and Economic Opportunities

Julio Arboleda, Rami Shabaneh, Noora Mukhtar, Dr.Sana Ben Kebaier

This report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of plastic waste disposal, recycling rates and the recycling infrastructure gaps in the GCC countries, along with encouraging policies to capture the untapped potential of the recycling sector, and transition from current…

Arboleda, Julio

Shabaneh, Rami

Noora Mukhtar

Dr.Sana Ben Kebaier

Does integrating oil refining with petrochemicals provide long-term benefits for Saudi Arabia?

Walid Matar

To integrate or not to integrate petrochemicals – that is the question posed by this paper for Saudi Arabian oil refineries. The viability of combining domestic oil refining and petrochemical activities is investigated using an energy system model for Saudi…

Matar, Walid

Energy Stewardship in a Transitioning World: Extending the Hydrocarbon Value Chain into Lithium Extraction in Saudi Arabia

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Osamah Al-Momen, Ahmed Al-Balawi

Energy security has long been central to the strategic and policy frameworks of governments worldwide, owing to the indispensable role of stable and sufficient energy supplies in underpinning economic growth, social welfare, and political stability. Historically, the pursuit of energy…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Osamah Al-Momen

Ahmed Al-Balawi

Breaking Down Gasoline and Diesel Prices: The Role of Taxes, Oil, and Other Components

Julio Arboleda, Zlata Sergeeva

There is a common belief that fluctuations in gasoline and diesel retail prices are primarily driven by changes in oil prices (Bumpass, Ginn, and Tuttle 2015). While this is partly true, the fact is that gasoline and diesel prices are…

Arboleda, Julio

Sergeeva, Zlata

Assessing ESG Impact in the Oil and Gas Industry: A Multi-Criteria Approach

Claudia Belahmidi

The paper titled “Assessing ESG Impact in the Oil & Gas Industry: A Multi-Criteria Approach” discusses the critical role of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles in the oil and gas sector, highlighting both challenges and opportunities. The document emphasizes…

Belahmidi, Claudia

Alternative Fuels and Processes for Saudi Construction Materials Companies

Walid Matar, Sid Ahmed Hamdani, Faris Aljamed

Producing construction materials requires a great amount of energy, and in Saudi Arabia, this production currently entails the use of substantial amounts of liquid fuels. Liquid fuels are mostly sold at below-market prices domestically, and thus result in large opportunity…

Matar, Walid

Hamdani, Sid Ahmed

Aljamed, Faris

Energy Peacekeeping: The Role of Effectivités as a Viable, Legal Instrument in Addressing Shared or Disputed Offshore Oil and Gas Fields

Majed A. Al Suwailem, David Soud, Fahad Alyahya

As more offshore oil and gas discoveries, some of them dramatic, take place in areas where maritime boundaries can be disputed, effectivités have become key considerations in resolving some of the resulting conflicts. A basic understanding of the theory of…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

David Soud

Alyahya, Fahad

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

This is the KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook quarterly report that focuses on oil markets supply, demand and balances.

Anticipating Trend Shifts in Oil Prices Using the Crude Oil Storage Index

Philipp Galkin, Jennifer Considine

The dynamics of crude oil prices have been characterized by a pronounced price trend, high-intensity jumps, and volatility. The price trend can be divided into three distinct categories: rising, falling, and “choppy sideways” or range bound in what is commonly…

Galkin, Philipp

Considine, Jennifer

No Magic Bullet The Challenge of Security Interventions in Phantom Oil Flows

Majed A. Al Suwailem, David Soud

The discovery and exploitation of oil and gas significantly transformed the global economy and social welfare landscape. Oil, in particular, became the lifeblood of industrialization, fueling the growth of numerous sectors, including transportation, manufacturing, and electricity generation. The economic boom…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

David Soud

BRICS+ and the Future of Commodity Markets

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Philipp Galkin

The dissolution of the Soviet Union in late 1991 marked a pivotal shift in the global economic landscape, ushering in an era characterized by increased market openness and economic integration. The years following have been symbolized by the formation of…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Galkin, Philipp

Balancing International Trade and Climate Justice: Legal Perspectives on the EU’s Deforestation Regulation

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Tommaso Morotti

Forests play a crucial role as natural carbon sinks and protectors of biodiversity. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the world lost approximately 4.2 million square kilometers of forest between 1990 and 2020 –…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Tommaso Morotti

Phantom Oil Movements: An Investigation into Opaque Ship- to-Ship Operations and Their Role in Sanction Evasion

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Philipp Galkin, Fahad Alyahya

The transportation and distribution of large volumes of oil, gas, and refined products over long distances are enabled primarily by marine shipping. Transborder pipelines serve as an additional method for transporting oil and gas. However, these pipelines are typically more…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Galkin, Philipp

Alyahya, Fahad

Critical Minerals and the Oil Industry: The Impact of a Positive Shock to Critical Mineral and World Oil Prices

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel, Philipp Galkin, Emre Hatipoglu

The term “critical minerals” (CMs) refers to a distinct category of commodities, such as rare earths, critical earth minerals, and other non-fuel minerals or mineral materials that are of strategic importance to national economies and technical development and that have…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

Galkin, Philipp

Hatipoglu, Emre

Can the Dangote Refinery Deliver on its Promise?

Evar Umeozor

In Nigeria, energy cost is the predominant driver of prices for all goods and services. With a population of over 200 million people, Nigeria is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a major producer…

Umeozor, Evar

Long-Term Forecasting Models of Oil Demand Emerging from the Global Petrochemical Sector

Raed Al-Mestneer, Carlo Andrea Bollino

This study aims to estimate the demand for petrochemical feedstocks for four main products (naphtha, ethane, liquified petroleum gas [LPG], and other petrochemical products) for each of the eight regions of the world.

Al-Mestneer, Raed

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

The Impact of Displacing Fuel Oil on Saudi Refineries

Walid Matar

Saudi Arabia aims to displace fuel oil in its electricity system and industry. Such a move ­will impact the operation of its oil refineries, and this commentary explores ­these potential effects.

Matar, Walid

The Unfolding Potential of GCC China Collaboration on Critical Minerals

Dongmei Chen, Jianping Ge, Yibo Wang, Ruihua Ren

As a clean energy system begins to be implemented worldwide, the demand for critical minerals is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. Thus, demonstrating how mineral collaboration benefits the economy is key to building long-term supply resilience and…

Chen, Dongmei

Jianping Ge

Yibo Wang

Ruihua Ren

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

This quarter’s highlights include stagnating quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) oil demand, with a trivial decline of only 8,000 barrels a day (Kb/d), following last quarter’s growth of 1.27 million barrels per day (MMb/d). While significant gains and losses were reported in individual…