Publications

KAPSARC’s Contribution to Evaluating the Impact of Price Controls

Axel Pierru, Walid Matar

The European Journal of Operational Research has just published a paper, “Measuring the effects of price controls using mixed complementarity models” (2019). It detailed a series of innovative modeling approaches developed by KAPSARC researchers over the last six years. The…

Pierru, Axel

Matar, Walid

Estimating the Household Consumption Function in Saudi Arabia

Goblan Al Gahtani, Carlo Andrea Bollino, Simona Bigerna, Axel Pierru

This research is part of a joint project between the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) and the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC). This paper estimates a micro-based life cycle consumption model for Saudi Arabia over the period…

Goblan Al Gahtani

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Bigerna, Simona

Pierru, Axel

The Costs and Gains of Policy Options for Coordinating Electricity Generation in the Gulf Cooperation Council

IDEAS

We investigate the economic impacts of policies for coordinating electricity production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) through electricity trade. The GCC countries have installed a network of high-voltage transmission lines that links Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and…

David Wogan, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

The Economic Impact of Price Controls on China’s Natural Gas Supply Chain

Science Direct

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain controlled by the government.

Axel Pierru, Kang Wu, Frederic Murphy, Philipp Galkin, Bertrand Rioux, Yan Li, Artem Malov, Felipe Feijoo

Measuring the Effects of Price Controls Using Mixed Complementarity Models

Science Direct

Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru, Yves Smeers

The Costs and Gains of Coordinating Electricity Generation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Utilizing the Interconnector

David Wogan, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have installed a network of high-voltage transmission lines, known as the GCC Interconnector, which links the member states of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Interconnector…

Wogan, David

Murphy, Frederic

Pierru, Axel

OPEC’s Impact on Oil Price Volatility: The Role of Spare Capacity

Energy Journal

OPEC claims to hold and use spare production capacity to stabilize the crude oil market. We study the impact of that buffer on the volatility of oil prices. After estimating the stochastic process that generates shocks to demand and supply,…

Axel Pierru, Tamim Zamrik

The Economic Impact of Price Controls on China’s Natural Gas Supply Chain

Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru, Kang Wu

Despite significant progress made by China in liberalizing its natural gas market, certain key areas such as market access and pricing mechanisms remain heavily monopolized or controlled by the government. To assess how such distortions impact the market, we developed…

Rioux, Bertrand

Galkin, Philipp

Murphy, Frederic

Pierru, Axel

Wu, Kang

The Value of Saving Oil in Saudi Arabia

Jorge Blazquez, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru

What is the value of saving a barrel of oil that would otherwise had been consumed domestically? This study explores the question, taking a long-run perspective into a general equilibrium approach. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the difference between…

Blazquez, Jorge

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Restructuring Saudi Arabia’s Power Generation Sector: Model-Based Insights

Bertrand Rioux, Axel Pierru, Nader AlKathiri

Saudi Arabia plans to reform and privatize its power generation sector as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. To provide analytical insights, we developed a model that simulates the restructuring of the electricity market, along with reforming fuel prices to…

Rioux, Bertrand

Pierru, Axel

AlKathiri, Nader

Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Framework for Developing Policies

Nader AlKathiri, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

Oil revenue stabilization funds provide short-run protection against oil revenue fluctuations – in the way that Saudi government deposits and reserve at the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) have historically served as a buffer to decouple government budget from oil…

AlKathiri, Nader

Murphy, Frederic

Pierru, Axel

How do Price Caps in China’s Electricity Sector Impact the Economics of Coal, Power and Wind? Potential Gains from Reforms

Energy Journal

China imposes maximum prices by plant type and region on the electricity that generators sell to utilities. We show that these price caps create a need for subsidies and cross-subsidies, and affect the economics of wind power. We model the…

Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

Efficient industrial energy use: The first step in transitioning Saudi Arabia’s energy mix

Energy Policy

In Saudi Arabia, industrial fuel prices are administered below international prices and firms make decisions based on low energy prices, increasing domestic energy demand. This analysis explores alternative policies designed to induce a transition to a more efficient energy system…

Walid Matar, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru, Bertrand Rioux, David Wogan

A tutorial on building policy models as mixed-complementarity problems

Interfaces

After 50 years of development, building and solving mixed-complementarity problems (MCPs) have become commonplace for policy models that analyze markets. These models are used to develop policies that reshape markets, or introduce markets that replace other organizational forms. In this…

Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru, Yves Smeers

Economic impacts of debottlenecking congestion in the Chinese coal supply chain

Energy Economics

The fast pace of development in China’s coal industry created bottlenecks in its transportation infrastructure. These bottlenecks likely affected not only China’s domestic coal market, but also global coal markets. In this paper, we estimate the costs and consequences of…

Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru

The prospects for coal-fired power generation in Saudi Arabia

Energy Strategy Reviews

Almost all of Saudi Arabia’s electric power generation is fueled by oil and gas. Plans for future capacity envisage nuclear and renewables supplementing this mix and thereby freeing up oil for other revenue-generating opportunities. Coal-fired generation has been promoted in…

Walid Matar, Rodrigo Echeverri, Axel Pierru

Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys

International Journal of Forecasting

We examine quarterly oil price forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the European Central Bank. We present three empirical findings, all of which are robust to the number of respondents considered. First, the dispersion of forecasts is…

Tarek Atalla, Fred Joutz, Axel Pierru

Potential Gains From Reforming Price Caps in China’s Power Sector

Bertrand Rioux, Philipp Galkin, Axel Pierru, Frederic Murphy

When energy sectors transition from government-controlled to market-driven systems, the legacy regulatory instruments can create unintended market distortions and lead to higher costs. In China, the most notable regulatory throwback is ceilings on electricity prices that generators can charge utilities,…

Rioux, Bertrand

Galkin, Philipp

Pierru, Axel

Murphy, Frederic

The Prospects for Coal-fired Power Generation in Saudi Arabia

Axel Pierru, Walid Matar

Almost all of Saudi Arabia’s electric power generation is fueled by oil and gas. Plans for future capacity envisage nuclear and renewables supplementing this mix and freeing up oil for other revenue-generating opportunities. Coal-fired generation has been promoted in some…

Pierru, Axel

Matar, Walid

Economic Impacts of Debottlenecking Congestion in the Chinese Coal Supply Chain

Philipp Galkin, Frederic Murphy, Axel Pierru, Bertrand Rioux

China’s coal industry grew at unprecedented rates during the first decade of the 2000s in order to support equally unprecedented economic growth. In that type of environment, it is impossible for the capacities of every link in the supply chain…

Galkin, Philipp

Murphy, Frederic

Pierru, Axel

Rioux, Bertrand