Publications

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

Total global oil demand is expected to increase year-on-year (YoY) by 4.3 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2021 to 96.3 MMb/d. It is expected to further grow by 3.2 MMb/d in 2022 (300,000 barrels per day [Kb/d] less than…

India’s Political Ambition of Implementing Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Targets

Yagyavalk Bhatt, Rubal Dua

The Indian transportation sector is going through a massive transition, especially the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Policymakers consider the electrification of road transport to be one of the ways of solving India’s triple problem of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,…

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Dua, Rubal

Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Since the Great Recession of 2008, oil-exporting countries have had to adjust their fiscal policies to respond to larger oil price variations and increased unpredictability. This commentary provides insights into the relationship between oil prices and fiscal policies in emerging…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Karanfil, Fatih

Renewable Energy in the MENA Region: Key Challenges and Lessons Learned

Fateh Belaïd, Elias Boukrami, Razan Amine

Many pieces of evidence showing that investments in energy transition can boost GDP and create jobs. Further, national and regional energy transitions can help build resilient economies and societies. Therefore, linking short-term actions to medium- and long-term strategies is vital…

Belaïd, Fateh

Elias Boukrami

Razan Amine

Responsiveness of Saudi New Vehicle Fleet Fuel Economy to Fuel and Vehicle Price Policy Levers

Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua

The Saudi government has implemented several policies to slow the growth of, or even reduce, its on-road motor gasoline consumption. These include demand-side policies such as raising fuel prices and supply-side policies such as the fuel economy standards (SASO and…

Sheldon, Tamara

Dua, Rubal

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the…

Havrlant, David

Darandary, Abdulelah

What Policy Levers Could Address Indiaʼs Automobile-Related Externalities?

Rubal Dua, Yagyavalk Bhatt, Dimpy Suneja

  The Indian government has shown a growing recognition of the need for policy instruments aimed at addressing increasing air pollution, oil imports, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with India’s light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Based on the findings of…

Dua, Rubal

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Suneja, Dimpy

Estimating Different Order Polynomial Logarithmic Environmental Kuznets Curves

Springer Link

This paper contributes to the environmental literature by (i) demonstrating that the estimated coefficients and the statistical significance of the non-leading terms in quadratic, cubic, and quartic logarithmic environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) specifications are arbitrary and should therefore not be…

Fakhri Hasanov, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Lester C. Hunt

Impact of COVID-19 on Passenger Railway Demand in Saudi Arabia

Abdulrahman Alwosheel

The Saudi Railways Organization (SRO) operates a network of approximately 1,400 kilometers (km). This network links the Eastern Province with Riyadh, where more than 40% of the country’s population and economic activities are located. A passenger line connects Riyadh with…

Alwosheel, Abdulrahman

The RCEP and its Potential Impact on Saudi Regional Exports

Philipp Galkin, Dongmei Chen

On November 15, 2020, 10 Southeast Asian economies, joined by Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, formed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the world’s largest trading bloc, representing about a third of the global economy (BBC…

Galkin, Philipp

Chen, Dongmei

Overview of Saudi Electricity Demand (1970–2018)

Salaheddine Soummane

Saudi Arabia’s demand for electricity is undergoing unprecedented changes. In recent years, the government has implemented several efficiency measures and pricing reforms to curb demand growth. These measures started delivering concrete results in 2016. After decades of rapid growth, the…

Soummane, Salaheddine

Economic Analysis of Gas Pipeline Trade Cooperation: A GCC case study

Bertrand Rioux, Rami Shabaneh, Steve Griffiths

Natural gas development across the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain —has become a priority for achieving long-term energy security and for supporting economic…

Rioux, Bertrand

Shabaneh, Rami

Griffiths, Steve

Advancing Market Integration and Decarbonization: How to Ensure a Smooth Transition?

The concept of connecting electricity markets, which started with the sole objective of maximizing economic gains, is now being increasingly expanded to fulfill other policy objectives, primarily to support the low-carbon future energy system. The importance of clearly articulating policies,…

Private Participation in the Renewable Energy Transition

Fatih Yılmaz

The electricity sector captures a significant portion of PPI flows in developing countries. Over half (51%) of total PPI flows in developing countries since 1995 (~ US$1.9 trillion) went into the electricity sector. This figure covers the privatization of existing…

Yılmaz, Fatih

Are Electric Vehicle Subsidies Becoming More Impactful Over Time?

Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua, Omar Al Harbi

Various subsidies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been implemented worldwide at the federal, state and regional levels. These subsidies aim to promote PEV adoption to help reduce both local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (Hardman 2019). In the…

Sheldon, Tamara

Dua, Rubal

Omar Al Harbi

Long-run Effects of Real-time Electricity Pricing in the Saudi Power Sector

Walid Matar

This study explores the potential effects of real-time electricity pricing on the operations of Saudi Arabia’s power generation sector. The Kingdom currently sets fuel prices for power utilities at levels that suppress the costs of power generation. However, this analysis…

Matar, Walid

The Road to Zero Routine Gas Flaring: A Case Study from Saudi Arabia

Majed A. Al Suwailem

Gas is envisaged as the fuel of choice in the power sector and is ideal for helping to transition toward clean, sustainable, and affordable energy access. As vital as gas is for electricity generation, the petrochemical industry, the transportation sector,…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Review Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Electricity Demand for Residential Buildings

Science Direct

In this paper, a systematic review analysis of fully enforced stay at home orders and government lockdowns is presented. The main goal of the analysis is to identify the impacts of stay home living patterns on energy consumption of residential…

Moncef Krarti, Mohammad Aldubyan

Policies to Nationalize the Private Sector Labor Force in a Matching Model with Public Jobs and Quotas

Olivier Durand-Lasserve

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries aim to employ more of their nationals in the private sector to absorb the inflow of new entrants into the labor force. They have put in place workforce nationalization policies to revert two peculiar features…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

The Value of Opec’s Spare Capacity to the Oil Market and Global Economy

Wiley Online Library

We investigate the extent to which OPEC has succeeded in its self‐stated mission of stabilising the oil market and the implications for the world’s economy. We discuss the modelling framework developed by Pierru, Smith and Zamrik (2018) and Pierru, Smith…

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru, James L. Smith