Publications

Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition…

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that…

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Javid, Muhammad

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Shabaneh, Rami

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Salaheddine Soummane

Evaluating the potential outcomes of energy price reforms is essential for policymakers to assess their effectiveness. In 2016 and 2018, the Saudi government enacted two waves of energy price reforms to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Soummane, Salaheddine

A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia: A Case Study on the World’s Largest Oil Exporter

Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz

Open Access Brief Introduces the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia Combines cutting-edge econometric methods, a well-established theoretical foundation, and empirical coherence Customizable for different research and policy questions   Click here to read the book

Javid, Muhammad

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

How to Mitigate Transportation Emissions in Saudi Arabia? The Role of Energy Price Governance

Sa’d Shannak, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rubal Dua

In light of Saudi Arabia’s recent energy-pricing reform strategy, this paper investigates the main drivers of fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the transport sector. We employed a battery of econometric techniques to analyze the long-run relationships between income, fuel…

Sa’d Shannak

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Dua, Rubal

Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri Hasanov, Saleh T. AlTurki, Rey B. Arnaiz

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Alyamani, Ryan

Darandary, Abdulelah

Javid, Muhammad

Hasanov, Fakhri

Saleh T. AlTurki

Rey B. Arnaiz

Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Hatem Al Atawi

Electricity price reforms are generally regarded as a mechanism to reduce distortions in energy markets, improve energy efficiency, and increase government revenue. However, an additional co-benefit of such policy measures is lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Al Atawi, Hatem

The Impact of Total Factor Productivity on Energy Consumption: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Validation

Science Direct

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov

Sectoral Employment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

Taylor & Francis

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid

Sectoral Employment Analysis for Saudi Arabia

Taylor & Francis Online

This study aims to explore the impact of output and wage on labour demand in Saudi Arabia at sectoral level. We applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methods to the time-series data of 10 sectors over 1995–2016 using the demand side…

Fakhri Hasanov, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Moayad H. Al-Rassasi, Mohammed Alabdullah

Estimating Different Order Polynomial Logarithmic Environmental Kuznets Curves

Springer Link

This paper contributes to the environmental literature by (i) demonstrating that the estimated coefficients and the statistical significance of the non-leading terms in quadratic, cubic, and quartic logarithmic environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) specifications are arbitrary and should therefore not be…

Fakhri Hasanov, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Lester C. Hunt

Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidizing Country Case

MDPI

Jeyhun Mikayilov

Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidzing Country Case

MDPI

This study investigates the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand for a fuel subsidizing country case, applying three different time-varying coefficient approaches to the data spanning the period from January 2002 to June 2018. The empirical estimations concluded a…

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Shahriyar Mukhtarov, Jeyhun Mammadov

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani, Fakhri Hasanov, Hatem Al Atawi

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Hasanov, Fakhri

Al Atawi, Hatem

Gasoline Demand in Saudi Arabia: Are The Price and Income Elasticities Constant?

Taylor & Francis

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fred Joutz, Fakhri Hasanov

The FDI-CO2 Nexus From The Sustainable Development Perspective: The Case of Azerbaijan

Taylor and Francis Online

The current study explores the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on CO2 emissions in Azerbaijan utilizing time series data spanning from 1996 to 2013. The structural time series modeling (STSM) approach is employed in empirical estimations. The STSM framework allows…

Shahriyar Mukhtarov, Shahriyar Aliyev, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Altay Ismayilov, Anar Rzayev