Publications

Renewables and Geopolitics in the Middle East

Emre Hatipoglu, Aisha Al-Sarihi, Brian Efird

The energy transition is fundamentally transforming geopolitics, with renewable energy and other decarbonization options reshaping existing energy markets, trade flows, and energy security strategies. What new opportunities and challenges await us? Will it pacify global energy relations or bring a…

Hatipoglu, Emre

Al-Sarihi, Aisha

Efird, Brian

Spatial Modeling of Bargaining Among Stakeholders in Energy Policy: The Case of Japanese Nuclear Plants

Emre Hatipoglu, Brian Efird, Saleh Al Muhanna

This paper evaluates the evolving political will in Japan to restart nuclear power plants to generate electric power, in light of the country’s political and economic developments over the past few years. We apply a model of collective decision-making processes…

Hatipoglu, Emre

Efird, Brian

Al Muhanna, Saleh

India’s Ambition to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions by 2070: Uncertainty and Opportunity

Yagyavalk Bhatt, Zlata Sergeeva, Brian Efird

The special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) above pre-industrial levels highlighted the importance of achieving net-zero emissions or a carbon-neutral future. There has subsequently been…

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Sergeeva, Zlata

Efird, Brian

Renewables and the Future of Geopolitics: Revisiting Main Concepts of International Relations from the Lens of Renewables

Russian Journal of Economics

The development of renewable energy is often treated as a purely positive outcome for the world, without consideration of the challenges that come with implementation at scale, which will inevitably follow with the process of a global energy transition. Studies…

Emre Hatipoglu, Saleh Al Muhanna, Brian Efird

Can Japanese Nuclear Power Be Restarted Sooner? A Simulation of Alternative Scenarios

Saleh Al Muhanna, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Brian Efird, Faisal Al-Ghamdi

This study assesses whether there are politically plausible paths to more quickly gain support for restarting Japanese nuclear power plants and considers alternative scenarios. It builds on the 2018 KAPSARC discussion paper, “The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power,”…

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Efird, Brian

Al-Ghamdi, Faisal

Energy Governance in China: The Structures and Processes of Government Decision-Making

Dongmei Chen, Paul Mollet, Brian Efird

This paper describes the current governance structure of China’s energy sector. The interplay between central government, the Communist Party, regional governments and key economic actors within the framework of China’s five-year planning processes are complex and constantly evolving. As such,…

Chen, Dongmei

Mollet, Paul

Efird, Brian

Iran Sanctions: Implications for the Oil Market

Carlo Andrea Bollino, Brian Efird, Fakhri Hasanov, Emre Hatipoglu

United States (U.S.) Iran energy sanction waivers expired May 2, 2019. The waivers permitted eight economies (China, Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey) to temporarily continue buying oil from Iran. Based on KAPSARC modeling of the political…

Bollino, Carlo Andrea

Efird, Brian

Hasanov, Fakhri

Hatipoglu, Emre

The Policymaking Process to Restart Japanese Nuclear Power Plants

Brian Efird, Saleh Al Muhanna, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Shahad Turkistani, Faisal Al-Ghamdi

The Japanese government’s decision to continue restarting nuclear power is shaped by a combination of domestic political concerns, energy security challenges, and its ability to meet climate change commitments and targets. Nuclear power plants have started to come back online,…

Efird, Brian

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Turkistani, Shahad

Al-Ghamdi, Faisal

Assessment of the Political Feasibility of Developing a GCC Power Market

Paul Mollet, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Brian Efird, Saleh Al Muhanna, Omar Al-Ubayli

Countries in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, commonly known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established a regional power grid to support member countries’ high voltage networks in 2001 but, to date, the system has remained underutilized.…

Mollet, Paul

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Efird, Brian

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Al-Ubayli, Omar

Modeling collective decision-making processes with the KAPSARC toolkit for behavioral analysis

ACM International Conference Proceeding Series

In this article, we briefly introduce the reader to the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB is a toolkit for building models of collective decision-making processes (CDMP), and simulating them. KTAB is being developed by the King Abdullah Petroleum…

Andrew Howe, Brian Efird

The Political Feasibility of Policy Options for the UAE’s Energy Transition

Brian Efird, Paul Mollet, Imtenan Al-Mubarak

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has said it wishes to transition toward a less carbon-intensive energy system, both as part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and as one of…

Efird, Brian

Mollet, Paul

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Preface

Energy Transitions

Brian Efird

Toward the Integration of Policymaking Models and Economic Models

Andrew Howe, Brian Efird

The traditional economic approach to policy analysis is to utilize tools and methods developed within the field of economics and study the economic impact of one or more policies solely from an economic perspective. As a consequence, the “policies” are…

Howe, Andrew

Efird, Brian

Support for a Carbon Tax in China: A Collective Decision-Making Process Simulation Using the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis

Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Brian Efird

China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is taking steps to combat the effects of climate change on its environment. The path it takes to mitigate the effects of pollution will have a significant impact on the global carbon…

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Efird, Brian

Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Ziyad Alfawzan, Sadeem Alhosain, Nader AlKathiri, Shahad Alarenan, Brian Efird

Trade between the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and North East Asia (NEA) reached $471 billion in 2013, based almost entirely on oil and gas. The GCC sends 44 percent of its exports to NEA, which depends on…

Alfawzan, Ziyad

Alhosain, Sadeem

AlKathiri, Nader

Alarenan, Shahad

Efird, Brian

Analyzing coalitions in China’s policy formulation: Reforming the role of state-owned enterprises in China’s energy sector

Journal of East Asian Studies

We focus on the elite decision-making process in China, analyzing the formation of coalitions around particular policy options. We apply a framework that simulates collective decision-making processes (CDMP): the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB). KTAB facilitates the application of…

Brian Efird, Leo Lester

Assessing the impact of political disruptions on crude oil trade

Kenneth White, Brian Efird, Sadeem Alhosain

Provides an empirical evaluation of energy trade flows, focusing on crude oil trade among the top 20 crude oil exporters and top 20 crude oil importers. We assess the potential impact of cross-national political disruptions (bilateral and regional) on energy…

White, Kenneth

Efird, Brian

Alhosain, Sadeem

Multidimensional Bargaining Using KTAB

Brian Efird, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Lama Yaseen

This paper (Multidimensional KTAB) is a technical discussion paper designed as a follow on to An Introduction to the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis using one-dimensional spatial models (Unidimensional KTAB). It extends the original framework of KTAB to explain the…

Efird, Brian

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Yaseen, Lama

Reforming the Role of State-Owned Enterprise in China’s Energy Sector: An Analysis of Collective Decision-Making Processes Using the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB)

Brian Efird, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Lama Yaseen

What are the prospects for reform of the Chinese energy sector? This question is the subject of much debate both inside and outside China. Since coming to power in November 2012, China’s new government has issued a series of statements…

Efird, Brian

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Yaseen, Lama

An Introduction to the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB)

Brian Efird, Imtenan Al-Mubarak, Lama Yaseen

The KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB) is freely available, state-of-the-art software that has been designed to enable the rigorous and systematic analysis of collective decision-making processes (CDMPs). KTAB is being designed with three types of users in mind. The…

Efird, Brian

Al-Mubarak, Imtenan

Yaseen, Lama