Publications

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

The global oil market is likely to move into deficit as early as this quarter. The most significant driver of this shift has been strong compliance with the production cuts agreed by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) at the group’s…

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

Trends in Global Solar PV Installation

Amro Elshurafa

Dozens of governments around the world have supported, and still support, renewable energy technology deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV). This has been driven by their ambitions to be energy independent, meet carbon emissions reduction targets, and contribute to their domestic…

Elshurafa, Amro

Toward Fiscal Stability and Sustainable Development: The Role of Sovereign Funds in Saudi Arabia

Nader AlKathiri

The study, “Optimal Policies for Managing Oil Revenue Stabilization Funds: An illustration using Saudi Arabia,” conducted by researchers from KAPSARC, was recently published in the journal Resources Policy. It developed a model that optimizes the buildup and drawdown of a stabilization fund.  It…

AlKathiri, Nader

The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Nader AlKathiri, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

The COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to combat it have led to major global disruptions. Policymakers are faced with a dilemma that is not easily resolved. On the one hand, they are striving to protect public health by containing the…

AlKathiri, Nader

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

The Impact of Recent Changes to China’s Plug-In Electric Vehicle Subsidy Design

Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua

Subsidies that promote plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption have been a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and the greenhouse gas emissions from its light-duty vehicle sector. Since 2009, PEVs qualify for substantial rebates (up…

Sheldon, Tamara

Dua, Rubal

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Nader AlKathiri, Saad Alshahrani, Ryan Alyamani

A clear objective of Saudi Vision 2030, the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is to put the non-oil sector at the heart of the country’s economic development. The vision realization programs (VRPs), such as…

Hasanov, Fakhri

AlKathiri, Nader

Alshahrani, Saad

Alyamani, Ryan

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Emissions Steady in 2019 Ahead of Expected 2020 Fall Due to COVID-19

Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza, Thamir Al Shehri, Jan Frederik Braun

The 2019 data on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have just been released ahead of an expected large fall in CO2 emissions in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. On June 3, Enerdata released its data for Saudi Arabia’s 2019…

Howarth, Nicholas

Lanza, Alessandro

Al Shehri, Thamir

Braun, Jan Frederik

Social Distancing: The Impact of COVID-19 on Mobility in Saudi Arabia

Hatem Al Atawi

Saudi Arabia took early measures to combat the spread of COVID-19 by enforcing social distancing measures. Figure 1 compares the daily change in mobility1 requests submitted by users of Apple Maps in Saudi Arabia since February 27, 2020 (left axis)…

Al Atawi, Hatem

Balancing World Oil Markets and Understanding Contango and Inventories: The Changing Nature of World Oil Markets

Jennifer Considine, Abdullah Aldayel

The general theory of storage suggests that the level of inventories is a key factor in determining the structure of the oil futures curve, or the basis, over time. The basis is the difference between the price of oil in…

Considine, Jennifer

Aldayel, Abdullah

The Impact of the Coronavirus Lockdown on the Electricity Sectors in Saudi Arabia and India

Yagyavalk Bhatt, Anushree Majumdar, Nora Nezamuddin

Currently, an estimated third of the global population is under some form of government-imposed lockdown measure aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19. These lockdown measures have had various negative economic effects and could decrease electricity demand (Business Insider 2020).…

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Majumdar, Anushree

Nezamuddin, Nora

Residential Energy Efficiency Investment and Behavioural Response Under Different Electricity Pricing Schemes: A Physical-microeconomic Approach

Taylor & Francis Online

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of electricity price changes and energy efficiency subsidy on household energy efficiency purchase and/or behavioural adjustment decisions. The analysis adds energy efficiency investment to a methodology that merges the physics…

Walid Matar

Estimating the Size and Efficiency of the Saudi Vehicle Fleet

Rubal Dua

Estimates of the size of Saudi Arabia’s vehicle fleet in 2015 vary from as high as 18 million (Arab News 2014) to as low as 6.6 million (OICA 2019). This significant variation stems from the fact that the Kingdom does…

Dua, Rubal

CO2 Emissions-Economic Growth Relationship Revisited: New Insights from the Time-Varying Cointegration Approach

Czech Statistical Office

One of the most discussed topics of Environmental economics is the choice of the appropriate functional form to examine the income-environmental impact relationship. Since the developing economies encounter different development stages, the use of relevant specification and technique gains special…

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Fakhri Hasanov, Nicholas Apergis

Energy Price Reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impact and Understanding the Demand Response

Mohammad Aldubyan, Anwar Gasim

The government of Saudi Arabia, like many around the world, has long set domestic energy prices far below international market levels. This helps keep prices stable and energy affordable, providing important support to lower-income households.    

Aldubyan, Mohammad

Gasim, Anwar

Saudi Electricity Demand for 2018-2019 based on Saudi Electricity Company Data

Salaheddine Soummane

Saudi electricity demand grew by 5% per year between 2010 and 2018. The Saudi government implemented two energy price reforms, in 2016 and 2018, which included significant electricity tariff hikes. The government also implemented a range of efficiency measures to…

Soummane, Salaheddine

Saudi Arabia’s Unfolding Power Sector Reform: Features, Challenges and Opportunities for Market Integration

Shahid Hasan, Turki Alaqeel, Nawaz Peerbocus

Today, there is a physical exchange of electricity between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. However, this is not the same as competitive trade in electricity. Numerous studies have shown the efficiency benefits of electricity trade among GCC countries. These studies…

Hasan, Shahid

Alaqeel, Turki

Peerbocus, Nawaz

Saudi Arabian Cement Companies: Upgrading Through Leveraging Overcapacity

Jitendra Roychoudhury

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s annual cement production capacity of 72.4 million tonnes is the highest of any Gulf country. From 2001-2005, Saudi cement production grew at a compound annual growth rate of almost 8%. However, its annual production in…

Roychoudhury, Jitendra

Electricity Incentives for Agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is That Relevant to Remove Them?

Science Direct

Saudi Arabia has been implementing the domestic energy price reform (EPR) and fiscal reform since the end of 2015 under the Fiscal Balance Program (FBP), one of the key realization programs of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The EPR aims to…

Fakhri Hasanov, Sa’d Shannak