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Improving Predictive Ability of Macroeconometric Models Using Coefficient Averaging

Improving Predictive Ability of Macroeconometric Models Using Coefficient Averaging

Peter Pedroni, Fakhri Hasanov

KGEMM (KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model) is a policy analysis tool that was designed to evaluate the impact of domestic policy decisions and global shocks on economic-energy-environmental indicators in Saudi Arabia. It also provides projections for energy-environmental-economic interactions at both…

Peter Pedroni Peter Pedroni
Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
22 May 2025
Understanding the Role of Renewable Energy in Import Demand for Petrochemicals Is the Prevailing Perception More Imagined Than Real?

Understanding the Role of Renewable Energy in Import Demand for Petrochemicals Is the Prevailing Perception More Imagined Than Real?

Fakhri Hasanov, Evar Umeozor, Samar Mohamed

The prevailing perception is that the transition to renewable energy ­will lead to a decrease in demand for hydrocarbons and petrochemicals. The pre­sent work empirically demonstrates that this common sense may be more imaginary than real: it finds evidence that…

Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Evar Umeozor Umeozor, Evar
Samar Mohamed Samar Mohamed
06 October 2024
Extended KGEMM’s Emission Block With Carbon Pricing
Models, Data and Tools

Extended KGEMM’s Emission Block With Carbon Pricing

Fakhri Hasanov, Heyran Aliyeva, Majed Almozaini, Carlo Andrea Bollino

This methodological work develops a representation of carbon pricing through the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). This representation makes two principal contributions in terms of model capabilities: establishing a feedback link from the emissions block to the energy block…

Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Heyran Aliyeva Heyran Aliyeva
Majed Almozaini Almozaini, Majed
Carlo Andrea Bollino Bollino, Carlo Andrea
12 March 2024
The Role of Financial Development in Private Sector Growth in Saudi Arabia
Models, Data and Tools

The Role of Financial Development in Private Sector Growth in Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the masterplan for the socioeconomic development of the Kingdom, places considerable emphasis on the development of the private sector in the diversification of the economy. This plan aims to have the private sector account for 65%…

Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
Ryan Alyamani Alyamani, Ryan
11 December 2023
The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks
Models, Data and Tools

The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks

Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Heyran Aliyeva

Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated…

Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Muhammad Javid Javid, Muhammad
Heyran Aliyeva Heyran Aliyeva
22 October 2023
Macroeconomic, Energy and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia
Models, Data and Tools

Macroeconomic, Energy and Emission Effects of Solar PV Deployment at Utility and Distributed Scales in Saudi Arabia

Amro Elshurafa, Fakhri Hasanov, Lester C. Hunt

This study assesses the macroeconomic, energy and emissions impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the period 2021–2030. This is accomplished by linking an energy and environmental sector augmented macroeconometric model with a power…

Amro Elshurafa Elshurafa, Amro
Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Lester C. Hunt Hunt, Lester C.
14 September 2023
Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model
Models, Data and Tools

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first…

Fakhri Hasanov Hasanov, Fakhri
Muhammad Javid Javid, Muhammad
Jeyhun Mikayilov Mikayilov, Jeyhun
Rami Shabaneh Shabaneh, Rami
Abdulelah Darandary Darandary, Abdulelah
Ryan Alyamani Alyamani, Ryan
10 May 2023
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