Publications

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook – Update

Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward

China reported an outbreak of a SARS-like viral infection on December 31, 2019. The disease, officially named COVID-19, was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and continues to spread globally. Initial symptoms are similar to the common cold,…

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

Ward, Colin

Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets

Energy is arguably the most valuable traded commodity in the world. Unlike most other commodities, energy resources are essential for economic and military activity and therefore have unique strategic importance, especially because states vary widely in their energy resource endowment.…

Saudi Arabia’s Residential Solar Energy Use and Prospects

Sadeem Alhosain, Ryan Alyamani

In an effort to diversify the energy mix of Saudi Arabia’s residential sector, the Electricity and Cogeneration Regularity Authority introduced regulations in August 2017, allowing households to use solar energy to generate their own electricity.

Alhosain, Sadeem

Alyamani, Ryan

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Jeyhun Mikayilov

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Fuel Mix for Power Generation and Water Desalination in Saudi Arabia

Rami Shabaneh

Saudi Arabia’s fuel mix for power generation and water desalination comprises natural gas (57%) and a suite of liquid fuels (43%). Liquid fuels include crude oil, heavy fuel oil (HFO), and diesel.

Shabaneh, Rami

India’s Crude Oil Imports From the Middle East

Yagyavalk Bhatt

India’s oil imports have risen significantly since the 1990s, when it imported fewer than one million barrels of oil per day.

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

Ronald Ripple

The prices for crude oil reported on both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, London) reflect the oil market’s expectations for the future balance of oil supply and demand. In the face of significant geopolitical…

Ripple, Ronald

Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey

MDPI

The current paper investigates the gasoline demand relationship in the case of Turkey, utilizing different econometric techniques and using quarterly data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1. The estimation results revealed that income and gasoline price are the main drivers of…

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Shahriyar Mukhtarov, Hasan Dincer, Serhat Yuksel, Ridvan Aydm

K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The K-DSGE model is to be used for simulations and experiments to assess the impact of economic reforms within the Saudi…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

The recent declaration by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) to cut oil production by a further 500 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d) should help stabilize prices, which should, in turn, help smaller shale producers. Balancing the market in this manner risks…

U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Waiver Renewal for Iranian Gas Exports to Iraq

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Saleh Al Muhanna, Rami Shabaneh

Following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, as a result of a United States (U.S.) airstrike, the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution stating that it “must work to end the presence of any foreign…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Shabaneh, Rami

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Alfawzan, Ziyad

Six, Sammy

Saudi Arabia’s 2018 CO2 Emissions Fall Faster Than Expected

Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza, Thamir Al Shehri

The Instant Insight published on December 03, 2019 (KS–2019-II16) was based on data downloaded from the following sources: Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Database (www.enerdata.net), 9 September, 2019 Enerdata EnerDemand Database (www.enerdata.net), 9 September, 2019 Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI),…

Howarth, Nicholas

Lanza, Alessandro

Al Shehri, Thamir

Residential Building Stock Model for Evaluating Energy Retrofit Programs in Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

A building stock model t represent energy performance of KSA existing housing units is developed. The building stock model has been applied to evaluate the benefits of energy retrofit programs.

Mohammad Aldubyan, Moncef Krarti

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Nader AlKathiri, Saad Alshahrani, Ryan Alyamani

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, aims to decouple the country’s economy from its reliance on oil revenues through implementing several economic and social initiatives. The key economic goals of…

Hasanov, Fakhri

AlKathiri, Nader

Alshahrani, Saad

Alyamani, Ryan

The Value of Spot Sales to a Producing Country Subject to Production Quotas

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Abdullah Aldayel

In recent years, global oil markets have experienced intensified competition driven by growing surpluses of lighter crude and shale oil. As their margins have shrunk, many producers have increased output in order to boost revenue, adding to the oversupply. Meanwhile,…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Aldayel, Abdullah

Carbon Sequestration Units (CSUs): A New Tool to Mitigate Carbon Emissions

Paul Mollet, Wolfgang Heidug, Paul Zakkour, Eric Williams

The United Kingdom’s decision to aim for net zero emissions by 2050 and to enshrine it in law raises the bar for global policymakers as the world seeks to limit the impact of climate change. A recent European Commission paper…

Mollet, Paul

Heidug, Wolfgang

Zakkour, Paul

Williams, Eric

Natural Gas Strategies for the Saudi Energy System

Walid Matar, Rami Shabaneh

Fuel prices in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have historically been below international market values. This has stimulated rapid growth in primary energy demand. The Kingdom’s natural gas demand has now outstripped its domestic production, forcing the government to impose…

Matar, Walid

Shabaneh, Rami

China’s Energy Investment Through the Lens of the Belt and Road Initiative

Philipp Galkin, Dongmei Chen, Junyuang Ke

The Chinese government launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013 as a vision to promote growth and cooperation among the economies of Asia and Europe. Over the five years since its inception, the BRI has expanded in both…

Galkin, Philipp

Chen, Dongmei

Ke, Junyuang

Staying Cool in A Warming Climate: Temperature, Electricity and Air Conditioning in Saudi Arabia

MDPI

As global temperatures warm and populations and incomes rise, the demand for cooling will soar, creating a positive feedback loop between global warming and electricity-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study explores the relationship between temperature, electricity, air conditioning (AC)…

Nicholas Howarth, Natalia Odnoletkova, Thamir Al Shehri, Abdulla Almadani, Alessandro Lanza, Tadeusz Patzek