Publications

Aggregate Real Energy Price Index

Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim

Our aggregate real energy index is constructed in two steps. First, sectoral energy prices are obtained from Hasanov et al (2020). Second, the index is constructed by calculating a weighted average of these sectoral energy prices, in which the weight…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Gasim, Anwar

Humidity Adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days in Saudi Arabia

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov

This data insight calculates the humidity-adjusted Cooling and Heating Degree Days for Saudi Arabia. This dataset can be used by researchers who model residential electricity demand, energy efficiency studies, and policymakers to base their potential policy scenarios on weather conditions.

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

This paper utilizes a structural time series approach to model Saudi Arabia’s regional electricity demand, capturing undetected forces of variability in the data-generating process that include improvements in technology, energy-saving behavior, and other underlying trends that are excluded under conventional…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary

One of the key benefits of understanding regional electricity consumption and its response to policy changes is enhancing the decision-making process. In Saudi Arabia, energy policies are set at the national level, and assessing their impacts at the regional level…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model

Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first…

Hasanov, Fakhri

Javid, Muhammad

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Shabaneh, Rami

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Regional Fuel Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Electricity Price Reforms

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Salaheddine Soummane

Evaluating the potential outcomes of energy price reforms is essential for policymakers to assess their effectiveness. In 2016 and 2018, the Saudi government enacted two waves of energy price reforms to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Soummane, Salaheddine

A Remaining Piece of the COVID-19 Puzzle: Saudi Arabia’s Remittances Account

Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Maria Alkhamees

It has been two years since the beginning of COVID-19, a one-of-a-kind crisis in recent history. The global economy was disrupted entirely in a few months and most economies faced shutdowns. While many disruptions can be explained, especially the economic…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Javid, Muhammad

Maria Alkhamees

Modeling and Forecasting Industrial Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia: Uncovering Regional Characteristics

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Ryan Alyamani, Abdulelah Darandary, Muhammad Javid, Fakhri Hasanov, Saleh T. AlTurki, Rey B. Arnaiz

The objective of this study is to investigate Saudi Arabia’s industrial electricity consumption at the regional level. We apply structural time series modeling to annual data over the period of 1990 to 2019. In addition to estimating the size and…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Alyamani, Ryan

Darandary, Abdulelah

Javid, Muhammad

Hasanov, Fakhri

Saleh T. AlTurki

Rey B. Arnaiz

Saving Costs and Emissions by Reforming Electricity Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Counterfactual Assessment

Abdulelah Darandary, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Hatem Al Atawi

Electricity price reforms are generally regarded as a mechanism to reduce distortions in energy markets, improve energy efficiency, and increase government revenue. However, an additional co-benefit of such policy measures is lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Darandary, Abdulelah

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Al Atawi, Hatem

Economic Diversification Under Saudi Vision 2030

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary

The last decade has brought a row of substantial changes that have profound implications for the hydrocarbon resource-rich economies. The general answer to a changing environment is: Adapt! From the macroeconomic perspective, this means diversifying the economy to broaden the…

Havrlant, David

Darandary, Abdulelah

The Saudi Move into Hydrogen: A Paradigm Shift

Hatem Al Atawi, Abdulelah Darandary

Saudi Arabia is moving ahead with its diversification plan, Saudi Vision 2030, by adopting hydrogen. The Kingdom is keen to enable the circular carbon economy (CCE) by producing and utilizing clean hydrogen. On September 27, Saudi Aramco announced its first…

Al Atawi, Hatem

Darandary, Abdulelah

How the World Trading System Promotes and Impedes the Diversification of Developing Countries

Abdelaaziz Aït Ali, Mohammed Al Doghan, Muhammad Bhatti, Carlos Braga, Abdulelah Darandary, Uri Dadush, Anabel González, Niclas Poitiers

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility. Export diversification is especially important for developing countries as a source of foreign exchange and imported know-how. We examine how export diversification is affected by trade policies,…

Abdelaaziz Aït Ali

Mohammed Al Doghan

Muhammad Bhatti

Carlos Braga

Darandary, Abdulelah

Uri Dadush

Anabel González

Niclas Poitiers

Early Estimates of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on GDP: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia

Taylor & Francis Online

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic sectors in a very heterogeneous way. In the early stages of the economic lockdown, only limited economic data, if any, related to the event were available. With the government’s discretionary measures to contain the…

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Abdelrahman Muhsen

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani, Fakhri Hasanov, Hatem Al Atawi

Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices…

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Hasanov, Fakhri

Al Atawi, Hatem

Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling Regional Residential Electricity Demand

Science Direct

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani, Fakhri Hasanov, Hatem Al Atawi

Economic Diversification in the MENA Region

T20

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consists of a heterogeneous group of countries ranging from high-income countries in the Arabian Gulf to middle-income and least developed countries. A dominant concern in the MENA region is the high dependence…

Said A. Alshaikh, Jamal Alzayer, Imed Drine, David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Farah Durani, Salah Abu Nar, Hatem Akeel

The Fiscal Response to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Nader AlKathiri, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani

The COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to combat it have led to major global disruptions. Policymakers are faced with a dilemma that is not easily resolved. On the one hand, they are striving to protect public health by containing the…

AlKathiri, Nader

Darandary, Abdulelah

Alyamani, Ryan

Diversification and the World Trading System

T20

Diversification is important because it is associated with economic growth and reduced volatility. Diversification of exports, which provide foreign exchange and enable imports of critical goods, services, and know-how, is crucial for developing countries. The question we address in this…

Abdulelah Darandary, Uri Dadush, Mohammed Al Doghan, Carlos Braga, Anabel González, Abdelaaziz Aït Ali

Estimating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Saudi GDP

David Havrlant, Abdulelah Darandary, Abdelrahman Muhsen

The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted economic and social activity globally at an unprecedented pace. The international movement of goods has been limited to the necessary minimum, often solely for deliveries of protective and healthcare equipment. Many governments have imposed strict…

Havrlant, David

Darandary, Abdulelah

Muhsen, Abdelrahman