Publications

Urban Transport Energy Demand Model for Riyadh: Methodology and Preliminary Analysis

Abu Toasin Oakil, Ahm Mehbub Anwar, Alma Alhussaini, Nourah Al Hosain, Abdelrahman Muhsen, Anvita Arora

Saudi Arabia intends to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 278 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030, according to its Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Among many policies it…

Oakil, Abu Toasin

Anwar, Ahm Mehbub

Alma Alhussaini

Al Hosain, Nourah

Muhsen, Abdelrahman

Arora, Anvita

Challenges Facing the Circular Economy That Aims to Improve Electric Vehicle Sector Sustainability

Rubal Dua

Governments around the world are increasingly focusing on the future of transportation, particularly road transportation, to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. As the shift to low-carbon transportation continues, the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected…

Dua, Rubal

Can Hybrid Solar Projects Pave the Way for Concentrated Solar Power Development?

Ahmed Al-Balawi

Hybrid renewable energy systems combine two or more technologies that complement each other to generate clean and stable power output. These systems could be two renewable energy systems (e.g., solar and wind) or renewables with storage (e.g., with battery or…

Ahmed Al-Balawi

Assessing Climate Mitigation Benefits of Public Support to CCS-EOR: An Economic Analysis

Hossa Almutairi, Axel Pierru

Government support for CCS-EOR projects is sometimes contested on the grounds that the resulting increase in oil production undermines their environmental benefits. Addressing this concern requires determining the effects of implementing CCS-EOR on global CO2 emissions. This paper presents a…

Almutairi, Hossa

Pierru, Axel

The Joint Crediting Mechanism in the Paris Agreement Era: The Challenges of and Potential for Future Saudi-Japanese Cooperation

Shigeto Kondo

The joint crediting mechanism (JCM) is a Japan-initiated bilateral mechanism for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while transferring Japan’s technologies to partner countries in exchange for transferring carbon credits to Japan. It is seen as a leading pilot mechanism of…

Shigeto Kondo

Lessons from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries’ Participation in the Clean Development Mechanism

Mari Luomi, Thomas Bosse, Zlata Sergeeva

Carrbon markets have rapidly risen on government and corporate agendas in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as the region gears up to implement the Paris Agreement and pursue ambitious net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Governments have expressed interest…

Luomi, Mari

Thomas Bosse

Sergeeva, Zlata

Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach

Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).…

Darandary, Abdulelah

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

The Dynamic Role of Subsidies in Promoting Global Electric Vehicle Sales

Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua

We offer the most comprehensive analysis to date of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies. We accomplish this by estimating vehicle choice models for 23 countries using 2010–2019 sales data and using counterfactual simulations to assess the cost-effectiveness of PEV…

Sheldon, Tamara

Dua, Rubal

Energy Transition Amid Converging Global Energy Crises

Fateh Belaïd, Raed Al-Mestneer, Aisha Al-Sarihi

In this commentary, we provide a discussion of the factors that have led to the ongoing spike in natural gas prices. We then discuss the potential short- and long-term implications for the global energy transition and for users of natural…

Belaïd, Fateh

Al-Mestneer, Raed

Al-Sarihi, Aisha

The Limit, Save, and Grow Act and Possible Scenarios for the Future of the Inflation Reduction Act

Emre Hatipoglu

The IRA has already begun delivering tangible benefits in the U.S., with much of it going to Republican districts. While LGSA has brought House Speaker McCarthy into the national spotlight, he does not have sufficient political clout to pursue a…

Hatipoglu, Emre

Reframing the Net-Zero Debate from Obligation to Opportunity: The Promise of the Circular Carbon Economy

Springer Link

Emre Hatipoglu, Jitendra Roychoudhury

Cost‒Benefit Analysis for Petrochemical Projects

Philipp Galkin, Dongmei Chen, Colin Ward

Cost‒benefit analysis (CBA) has been used to assess investment projects for decades with the aim of quantifying their externalities and potential impacts on social welfare. However, the domain where CBA is applied has been primarily limited to direct public financing…

Galkin, Philipp

Chen, Dongmei

Ward, Colin

Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition…

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Distribution Hosting Capacity Tool

Khalid Alhadhrami

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are a critical component of strategies to decarbonize the electricity sector. As the costs of solar panels and electric vehicles decline, distribution systems will host an increasing number of DERs. Successful implementation requires determining the quantity…

Alhadhrami, Khalid

Choosing to Diet: The Impact and Cost-effectiveness of China’s Vehicle Ownership Restrictions

Anthony Liu, Rubal Dua, Wei-min Hu, Arthur Lin Ku

Can voluntary carbon emission reduction pledges, such as the nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, result in significant emission reductions? According to prominent experts such as Nordhaus (2015), Barrett (2005), and Weitzman (2019), free-riding is unavoidable in cooperative situations…

Anthony Liu

Dua, Rubal

Wei-min Hu

Arthur Lin Ku

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO)

This quarter’s demand highlights show competition between seasonality and economics in each country, with one factor limiting growth while the other enhances quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) demand to new levels.

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba

The energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not…

Karanfil, Fatih

Luc Desire Omgba

Modeling the Distribution and Transshipment of Refined Oil Products

Walid Matar

KAPSARC has developed an optimization model to characterize the distribution of oil products after the refining stage. The model ensures that the demand for any group of refined oil products is simultaneously met while minimizing the social costs associated with…

Matar, Walid

Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System

Ahm Mehbub Anwar, Abu Toasin Oakil, Abdelrahman Muhsen, Anvita Arora

The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus,…

Anwar, Ahm Mehbub

Oakil, Abu Toasin

Muhsen, Abdelrahman

Arora, Anvita

Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that…

Gasim, Anwar

Hunt, Lester C.

Mikayilov, Jeyhun