Climate Change Policies and Governance Lessons from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries’ Participation in the Clean Development Mechanism Mari Luomi, Thomas Bosse, Zlata Sergeeva Carrbon markets have rapidly risen on government and corporate agendas in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as the region gears up to implement the Paris Agreement and pursue ambitious net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. Governments have expressed interest… Luomi, Mari Thomas Bosse Sergeeva, Zlata
Models, Data and Tools Projecting Saudi Arabia’s CO2 Dynamic Baselines to 2060: A Multivariate Approach Abdulelah Darandary, Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov As a party to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global average temperature rise to below 2 degrees and keep it as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius, Saudi Arabia has submitted its nationally determined contribution (NDC).… Darandary, Abdulelah Gasim, Anwar Hunt, Lester C. Mikayilov, Jeyhun
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand The Dynamic Role of Subsidies in Promoting Global Electric Vehicle Sales Tamara Sheldon, Rubal Dua We offer the most comprehensive analysis to date of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) subsidies. We accomplish this by estimating vehicle choice models for 23 countries using 2010–2019 sales data and using counterfactual simulations to assess the cost-effectiveness of PEV… Sheldon, Tamara Dua, Rubal
Climate Change Policies and Governance Energy Transition Amid Converging Global Energy Crises Fateh Belaïd, Raed Al-Mestneer, Aisha Al-Sarihi In this commentary, we provide a discussion of the factors that have led to the ongoing spike in natural gas prices. We then discuss the potential short- and long-term implications for the global energy transition and for users of natural… Belaïd, Fateh Al-Mestneer, Raed Al-Sarihi, Aisha
Future of Global Oil Markets The Limit, Save, and Grow Act and Possible Scenarios for the Future of the Inflation Reduction Act Emre Hatipoglu The IRA has already begun delivering tangible benefits in the U.S., with much of it going to Republican districts. While LGSA has brought House Speaker McCarthy into the national spotlight, he does not have sufficient political clout to pursue a… Hatipoglu, Emre
Reframing the Net-Zero Debate from Obligation to Opportunity: The Promise of the Circular Carbon Economy Springer Link Emre Hatipoglu, Jitendra Roychoudhury
Productivity and Economic Diversification Cost‒Benefit Analysis for Petrochemical Projects Philipp Galkin, Dongmei Chen, Colin Ward Cost‒benefit analysis (CBA) has been used to assess investment projects for decades with the aim of quantifying their externalities and potential impacts on social welfare. However, the domain where CBA is applied has been primarily limited to direct public financing… Galkin, Philipp Chen, Dongmei Ward, Colin
Productivity and Economic Diversification Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition… Gasim, Anwar Hunt, Lester C. Mikayilov, Jeyhun
Electricity Sector Transitions Distribution Hosting Capacity Tool Khalid Alhadhrami Distributed energy resources (DERs) are a critical component of strategies to decarbonize the electricity sector. As the costs of solar panels and electric vehicles decline, distribution systems will host an increasing number of DERs. Successful implementation requires determining the quantity… Alhadhrami, Khalid
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand Choosing to Diet: The Impact and Cost-effectiveness of China’s Vehicle Ownership Restrictions Anthony Liu, Rubal Dua, Wei-min Hu, Arthur Lin Ku Can voluntary carbon emission reduction pledges, such as the nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, result in significant emission reductions? According to prominent experts such as Nordhaus (2015), Barrett (2005), and Weitzman (2019), free-riding is unavoidable in cooperative situations… Anthony Liu Dua, Rubal Wei-min Hu Arthur Lin Ku
Future of Global Oil Markets KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook (KOMO) This quarter’s demand highlights show competition between seasonality and economics in each country, with one factor limiting growth while the other enhances quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) demand to new levels.
Energy and Economic Vulnerability The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba The energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not… Karanfil, Fatih Luc Desire Omgba
Evaluation of Public Investment Projects Modeling the Distribution and Transshipment of Refined Oil Products Walid Matar KAPSARC has developed an optimization model to characterize the distribution of oil products after the refining stage. The model ensures that the demand for any group of refined oil products is simultaneously met while minimizing the social costs associated with… Matar, Walid
Future of Transport and Fuel Demand Modeling Factors Affecting the Choice to Use the Proposed Riyadh Metro System Ahm Mehbub Anwar, Abu Toasin Oakil, Abdelrahman Muhsen, Anvita Arora The Riyadh metro system is being implemented as a sustainable transport option that will offer reliable, affordable and comfortable urban mobility. It is important to understand the factors influencing the likelihood that people will use the new metro system. Thus,… Anwar, Ahm Mehbub Oakil, Abu Toasin Muhsen, Abdelrahman Arora, Anvita
Productivity and Economic Diversification Baseline Forecasts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics Anwar Gasim, Lester C. Hunt, Jeyhun Mikayilov As a party to the Paris Agreement, Saudi Arabia submitted a baseline emissions reduction target as part of its nationally determined contribution. The baseline target rests on the development of a baseline emissions scenario. This is a counterfactual scenario that… Gasim, Anwar Hunt, Lester C. Mikayilov, Jeyhun
Modeling Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings From Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector and Interlinkages to Export Revenues Science Direct Salaheddine Soummane, Amro Elshurafa, Hatem Al Atawi, Frank Felder
Climate Change Policies and Governance Advancing the Circular Carbon Economy in Saudi Arabia In May 2022, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) co-organized an event titled “Advancing the Circular Carbon Economy in Saudi Arabia.” The one-day event, which comprised a high-level…
Models, Data and Tools Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of the Natural Gas Price: Policy Insights from a Macroeconometric Model Fakhri Hasanov, Muhammad Javid, Jeyhun Mikayilov, Rami Shabaneh, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan Alyamani Macroeconomic and sectoral assessment of the energy price reform (EPR) can provide policymakers with useful insights regarding price deregulation options. A key feature of this research that differentiates it from many other studies is its modeling framework. The framework first… Hasanov, Fakhri Javid, Muhammad Mikayilov, Jeyhun Shabaneh, Rami Darandary, Abdulelah Alyamani, Ryan
Chapter 2: Geopolitics and energy security issues in India Elgaronline This book chapter assesses the issues related to the Indian energy sector through a geopolitical and energy security lens, focusing on the energy access and economic drivers that have helped shape these lenses historically and their impact on the future.… Jitendra Roychoudhury
Productivity and Economic Diversification The Rebound Effect in Residential Energy Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Aldubyan, Fateh Belaïd, Anwar Gasim A Bird’s-Eye View of the Rebound Effect Although the rebound effect phenomenon has sparked heightened policy and academic debate in recent years, the topic is not new. The concept of rebound – and its extreme form, “backfire”, where energy efficiency… Aldubyan, Mohammad Belaïd, Fateh Gasim, Anwar
