Publications

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

When appraising investment projects from a public perspective, a barrel of oil displaced from or added to domestic consumption has to be valued at its opportunity cost. This paper develops a partial-equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic…

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Market Structure, Inventories and Oil Prices: An Empirical Analysis

Jennifer Considine, Philipp Galkin, Abdullah Aldayel

Understanding the relationship between crude oil prices and inventory levels is critical for policymakers and economic actors. The size of the ‘basis,’ or spread between spot and futures prices, reflects the level of inventories and can trigger arbitrage trading. The…

Considine, Jennifer

Galkin, Philipp

Aldayel, Abdullah

Eliciting Preferences of Ride-Hailing Users and Drivers

Prateek Bansal, Akanksha Sinha, Rubal Dua, Ricardo Daziano

The ‘ride-hailing’ services offered by transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft have rapidly disrupted personal transportation, particularly in cities. Schaller (2018) reports that TNCs provided 2.6 billion rides in 2017 in the United States (U.S.), a 37%…

Bansal, Prateek

Akanksha Sinha

Dua, Rubal

Ricardo Daziano

Assessment of Coronavirus Effects on Oil Demand Implied by Price Elasticities

Ronald Ripple, Dongmei Chen, Abdullah Aldayel, Hamid M. Al Sadoon

There appears to be a significant response in the crude oil markets to the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread globally. Many cities in Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital, have been…

Ripple, Ronald

Chen, Dongmei

Aldayel, Abdullah

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

Exploring the Effects of Transport Policies on Energy Consumption in Freight Transportation – The Saudi Perspective

The freight sector is at the heart of global economic activity, one of the biggest energy consumers globally and a key contributor to emissions in the transport sector. It is estimated that over 12% of all global energy consumption is…

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook – Update

Hamid M. Al Sadoon, Colin Ward

China reported an outbreak of a SARS-like viral infection on December 31, 2019. The disease, officially named COVID-19, was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and continues to spread globally. Initial symptoms are similar to the common cold,…

Al Sadoon, Hamid M.

Ward, Colin

Analytical Approaches to Blending Political Science With the Study of Energy Markets

Energy is arguably the most valuable traded commodity in the world. Unlike most other commodities, energy resources are essential for economic and military activity and therefore have unique strategic importance, especially because states vary widely in their energy resource endowment.…

Saudi Arabia’s Residential Solar Energy Use and Prospects

Sadeem Alhosain, Ryan Alyamani

In an effort to diversify the energy mix of Saudi Arabia’s residential sector, the Electricity and Cogeneration Regularity Authority introduced regulations in August 2017, allowing households to use solar energy to generate their own electricity.

Alhosain, Sadeem

Alyamani, Ryan

KGEMM: A Macroeconometric Model for Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Fred Joutz, Jeyhun Mikayilov

The KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), is a policy analysis tool for examining the impacts of domestic policy measures and global economic and energy shocks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Hasanov, Fakhri

Joutz, Fred

Mikayilov, Jeyhun

Fuel Mix for Power Generation and Water Desalination in Saudi Arabia

Rami Shabaneh

Saudi Arabia’s fuel mix for power generation and water desalination comprises natural gas (57%) and a suite of liquid fuels (43%). Liquid fuels include crude oil, heavy fuel oil (HFO), and diesel.

Shabaneh, Rami

India’s Crude Oil Imports From the Middle East

Yagyavalk Bhatt

India’s oil imports have risen significantly since the 1990s, when it imported fewer than one million barrels of oil per day.

Bhatt, Yagyavalk

Oil Market Reactions to Recent Geopolitical Events

Ronald Ripple

The prices for crude oil reported on both the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, London) reflect the oil market’s expectations for the future balance of oil supply and demand. In the face of significant geopolitical…

Ripple, Ronald

Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey

MDPI

The current paper investigates the gasoline demand relationship in the case of Turkey, utilizing different econometric techniques and using quarterly data spanning from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1. The estimation results revealed that income and gasoline price are the main drivers of…

Jeyhun Mikayilov, Shahriyar Mukhtarov, Hasan Dincer, Serhat Yuksel, Ridvan Aydm

K-DSGE: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Saudi Arabia

Jorge Blazquez, Marzio Galeotti, Baltasar Manzano, Axel Pierru, Shreekar Pradhan

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Saudi Arabian economy, developed by KAPSARC researchers. The K-DSGE model is to be used for simulations and experiments to assess the impact of economic reforms within the Saudi…

Blazquez, Jorge

Galeotti, Marzio

Manzano, Baltasar

Pierru, Axel

Pradhan, Shreekar

KAPSARC Oil Market Outlook

The recent declaration by OPEC and its partners (OPEC+) to cut oil production by a further 500 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d) should help stabilize prices, which should, in turn, help smaller shale producers. Balancing the market in this manner risks…

U.S.-Iran Tensions and the Waiver Renewal for Iranian Gas Exports to Iraq

Majed A. Al Suwailem, Saleh Al Muhanna, Rami Shabaneh

Following the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, as a result of a United States (U.S.) airstrike, the Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution stating that it “must work to end the presence of any foreign…

Al Suwailem, Majed A.

Al Muhanna, Saleh

Shabaneh, Rami

Placing a Value on Spot Sales from a Joint Oil Stockpiling Facility

Jennifer Considine, Kang Wu, Ziyad Alfawzan, Sammy Six

In this paper, joint oil stockpiling (JOS) refers to a commercial arrangement whereby crude oil, owned and commercially traded by an exporting country, is stored in an importing country in exchange for priority drawdown by the host country in the…

Considine, Jennifer

Wu, Kang

Alfawzan, Ziyad

Six, Sammy

Saudi Arabia’s 2018 CO2 Emissions Fall Faster Than Expected

Nicholas Howarth, Alessandro Lanza, Thamir Al Shehri

The Instant Insight published on December 03, 2019 (KS–2019-II16) was based on data downloaded from the following sources: Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Database (www.enerdata.net), 9 September, 2019 Enerdata EnerDemand Database (www.enerdata.net), 9 September, 2019 Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI),…

Howarth, Nicholas

Lanza, Alessandro

Al Shehri, Thamir

Residential Building Stock Model for Evaluating Energy Retrofit Programs in Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

A building stock model t represent energy performance of KSA existing housing units is developed. The building stock model has been applied to evaluate the benefits of energy retrofit programs.

Mohammad Aldubyan, Moncef Krarti

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia

Fakhri Hasanov, Nader AlKathiri, Saad Alshahrani, Ryan Alyamani

Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030), the strategic roadmap for the future of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, aims to decouple the country’s economy from its reliance on oil revenues through implementing several economic and social initiatives. The key economic goals of…

Hasanov, Fakhri

AlKathiri, Nader

Alshahrani, Saad

Alyamani, Ryan