Publications

Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

For an oil-exporting economy, valuing oil-related cash flows from a public perspective requires using a discount rate equal to the risk-free public rate plus a risk premium. Economic dependence on oil affects the public discount rate for oil-related cash flows…

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

Windfalls and Pitfalls: How Foreign Labor Strengthens Economic Resilience in GCC During Energy Transition

Dramane Coulibaly, Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba

Governments in oil-dependent countries, particularly those in the Gulf, have launched broad and ambitious national plans to diversify their economies. While diversification reduces vulnerability to oil shocks, the expansion of renewables and the deregulation of domestic energy prices decrease domestic…

Dramane Coulibaly

Karanfil, Fatih

Luc Desire Omgba

Energy Transition in Oil-Dependent Economies: Public Discount Rates for Investment Project Evaluation

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

The selection of welfare-enhancing projects necessitates the determination of the present value of cash flows from a public policy perspective. For an oil-exporting economy, the domestic energy transition often implies displacing oil from domestic consumption. Economic dependence on oil affects…

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Science Direct

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Fiscal Policy in Oil and Gas-Exporting Economies: Good Times, Bad Times and Ugly Times

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Revenues from oil and gas exports represent an important source of government budgets in some emerging countries. At the same time, these revenues fluctuate considerably due to changing global economic conditions and energy prices. Economic theory prescribes that governments should…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Karanfil, Fatih

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-Dependent Countries: The Role of Structural Factors

Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba

The energy transition toward decarbonization is expected to impact producers of fossil fuels. However, oil-exporting countries are currently key players in the modern economy. Thus, the energy transition will not be successful if state revenues in these countries are not…

Karanfil, Fatih

Luc Desire Omgba

The Energy Transition and Export Diversification in Oil-dependent Countries: The role of Structural Factors

Science Direct

Fatih Karanfil

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

IAEE

Bertrand Rioux, Axel Pierru, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Fiscal Policy for Stability in Oil-Exporting Countries: From the Old Problems to the Challenges of COVID-19

Olivier Durand-Lasserve, Fatih Karanfil

Since the Great Recession of 2008, oil-exporting countries have had to adjust their fiscal policies to respond to larger oil price variations and increased unpredictability. This commentary provides insights into the relationship between oil prices and fiscal policies in emerging…

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier

Karanfil, Fatih

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption For an Oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

Science Direct

We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil-exporting country. We show that the opportunity cost depends on various factors, including the constraints to which the oil producer is subject and…

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

Simulating a Global Oil Market With No Residual Supplier

Bertrand Rioux, Abdullah AlJarboua, Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru, Shahd Alrashed, Colin Ward

Motivation and objective of the study What if OPEC decided to abandon organizing residual production collectively, transitioning the world permanently to a competitive oil market? This commentary is based on a forthcoming KAPSARC paper, “Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating…

Rioux, Bertrand

AlJarboua, Abdullah

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

Alrashed, Shahd

Ward, Colin

Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Migrant Workers in the Informal Sector and Spin-Off Effects in their Destination and Home Countries

T20

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has posed major challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. It will also have long-lasting effects on the economy, pushing millions around the world into precarity and poverty. The already vulnerable will be hit even harder—the slum…

Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba, Mohamed Sharif Ahmed, Ana B. Moreno, Nhusha Vu, Dramane Coulibaly, Hind Kinani

The Opportunity Cost of Domestic Oil Consumption for an Oil Exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia

Fatih Karanfil, Axel Pierru

When appraising investment projects from a public perspective, a barrel of oil displaced from or added to domestic consumption has to be valued at its opportunity cost. This paper develops a partial-equilibrium framework to assess the opportunity cost of domestic…

Karanfil, Fatih

Pierru, Axel

The Role of Oil in the Allocation of Foreign Aid: The Case of G7 Donors

Science Direct

Aid allocated by G7 donors increases significantly with oil endowment of recipient countries. Motivated by energy security concerns, G7 donors compete for oil resources in their provision of foreign aid.    

Fatih Karanfil, Luc Desire Omgba, Eric Kilama Gabin, Cecile Couharde

Degree of stringency matters: Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis based on the heterogeneous panels and aggregate data

Cambridge

Empirical studies on the trade-environment nexus that use panel data face two simultaneous challenges. One is associated with the potential presence of unobserved cross-country heterogeneity, while the other is due to the use of aggregate data. In this paper, we…

Thomas Jobert, Fatih Karanfil, Anna Tykhonenko

Forthcoming. Degree of stringency matters: Revisiting the pollution haven hypothesis based on heterogeneous panels and aggregate data

Macroeconomic Dynamics

Fatih Karanfil

Depositor myopia and banking sector behavior

Financial Development, Economic Crises and Emerging Market Economies

Fatih Karanfil

The Role of Continuous Intraday Electricity Markets: The Integration of Large-Share Wind Power Generation in Denmark

The Energy Journal

Fatih Karanfil, Yan Li

An empirical analysis of European football rivalries based on on-field performances

Sport Management Review

Fatih Karanfil